Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Not seeing much here TBH.

Reasonable agreement in the LR models indicating the fading LWT has some breathe left in it.
Models are aligned more-so on the ridge than the frontal system so I think we're looking at a clipper, with the potential to deliver 5-15cm in this date range IMO.
Ahead (~16th) of this system is some warmer, moist NW'ly inflow so likely to be prefrontal evident.

I think if we see a more stable negative AAO signal we could see things develop and upgrade, yet.

EC 17th Aug
Screen Shot 2019-08-07 at 8.22.09 am.png

Screen Shot 2019-08-07 at 8.23.45 am.png

A follow-up front is signaled by both GFS & EC ensembles, but GFS calls it SE Aus', whilst EC peaks it over SW WA (18th). The potential is certainly there as it does appear to be a strong system.
EC for the 18th, with a West Oz special:
Screen Shot 2019-08-07 at 8.37.08 am.png

GFS 19th:
Screen Shot 2019-08-07 at 8.28.04 am.png
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Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
Box Hill, VIC
The 18th one too:
OK you confused me jelly that 16th activity on my plots is warm
the real deal rare's its head dropping dam heights for snow
late into 17+18.
download (23).png download (17).png
download (23).png
download (17).png
Yeah it’s a little warmer, but still would deliver 10-20cm.

EC still shows it to be weaker on 00z, so it’s probably just GFS adding extra moisture in for a few runs.


One of Us
Jun 25, 2013
Looking at yr it suggests the r... will arrive late Sunday. Is that how you see it ? Ie weekend sking ok ?
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