Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not seeing much here TBH.

    Reasonable agreement in the LR models indicating the fading LWT has some breathe left in it.
    Models are aligned more-so on the ridge than the frontal system so I think we're looking at a clipper, with the potential to deliver 5-15cm in this date range IMO.
    Ahead (~16th) of this system is some warmer, moist NW'ly inflow so likely to be prefrontal evident.

    I think if we see a more stable negative AAO signal we could see things develop and upgrade, yet.

    EC 17th Aug

    GFS


    A follow-up front is signaled by both GFS & EC ensembles, but GFS calls it SE Aus', whilst EC peaks it over SW WA (18th). The potential is certainly there as it does appear to be a strong system.
    EC for the 18th, with a West Oz special:


    GFS 19th:
     
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  2. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could do without the prefrontal thanks.
     
  3. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Mmmmm.....Interesting. I plan to being XC BC skiing the BHP on 17/8/19. I hope it is not too windy or socked in. We shall watch and wait and observe what unfolds.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  5. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sorry Comrade. The automated modelling from Ms. Bunn now covers Friday week 16/8/19 . It looks like we shall get a nice top up but not a huge snowfall.
    http://www.janebunn.net/falls-creek
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 19th on EC 12z demonstrates the downward stroke of the LWT this evening.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS signalling upgrades for 17th
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    It's starting to look like August 1991....
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Easy tiger.

    EC having a sniff again. 16/17th zonal slider then a follow-up front on the 18th as last night. 18th has a lot of wriggle room for improvements yet.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Jobe6

    Jobe6 Hard Yards

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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    16-17th still looks like a quick signal, still 5-15cm IMO
    Divergence in the models thereafter. GFS likes the 19th, EC has it coming and going. No settlement there.
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC maintaining it's usual even keel for the 19th.
    Clipperoni 5-15cm IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don’t mind the form of EC & GFS at the moment, they both look quite cold, but fairly dry.




    I’d say somewhere between 5cm and 20cm. Top-up style system.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    17th system still looking like a 5cent quick mover through the SE, snow above 1500m though with some prefrontal.

    19th is getting interesting with a strong zonal push, it’s gonna be quick.
    Still looks like 5-15cm here.
     
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  15. Mattoman

    Mattoman Hard Yards

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    Weatherzone seem pretty Bullish on this one.

    A very nice top up after this current storm.

    [​IMG]

    Hoping for Minimal Prefrontal on the Friday though... I'm predicting there might be some.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    16/17th is looking pretty ridged on GFS 00z, might see 2-3cm, but gets interesting for the 19th, much like this AM. Still ridgy but could go either way. Still seeing ~10cm there IMO.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z looking ok for a cheeky top up.
     
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  18. JM72

    JM72 One of Us

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    Well done all the weather gurus ( pow and jellybeans etc ) been watching you guys for the past years .
    Back down on the 20th , watching for the next top up!
    Cheers guys love your work
     
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  19. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    If Mt. Buffalo gets a top up then I will be happy for months!
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC putting out some reasonable temps.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC favouring and trending a West Aus peak for the 16/17th which draws in some warm NW’ly feed for us in the SE on the 18th system.
    Some further follow-up on the 20-21st looks ok on EC this AM.
     
  22. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    When you say warm....
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS run:

    Shows a bit more activity on the 16th, bigger than EC 12z.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, a one, two swipe from GFS this arvo. Temps looking healthier than recent runs.
    Trending nicely.
     
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  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It doesn’t show this?


    The 18th one too:
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just enough. But that said it's not even there on EC this arvo.
    A cheeky 5 cents curtain-raiser to the 18th potential.
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK you confused me jelly that 16th activity on my plots is warm
    the real deal rare's its head dropping dam heights for snow
    late into 17+18.
    [/QUOTE]
    Yeah it’s a little warmer, but still would deliver 10-20cm.

    EC still shows it to be weaker on 00z, so it’s probably just GFS adding extra moisture in for a few runs.
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z for the 19th.
    I do worry about downstroke on today's run. It peaks in the west so prefrontal is is still a risk here IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Me two. Not a lot here. Started the thread largely for the curious.
     
  30. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Seems like a near personal threeway exchange here, but I'm happy to listen in, onya fellas.
     
  31. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    If I thought I could make a meaningful contribution, then yes....
    keep the good work.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some agreement between GFS and EC this morning for the 19th system, with the 17th fading to black as suspected.

    GFS has a roll back on the high (20th) which opens things up even further to some follow up. EC not exactly keen here (20/21st follow up) though.

    EC:


    GFS:
     
  33. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks wet with the moisture disappearing before the temps drop IMO.

    Hate me later.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s a WA peaker so that’s what you’ll get.
     
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  35. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  36. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC throwing up an inch of clear for Falls Creek and temps well above zero.
    May even see a 20 for metro Melbourne on Sunday if things hold. IF......
     
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  37. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Does look like warm and wet and then a dusting
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't forget it's strong positive IOD at the moment, so there's 2 parts of FA moisture in the NW/Sub trop - where prefrontal tends to originate.
    The very reason why we've seen bugger-all prefrontal at all this season. Watch the models rollback on it IMO.
     
  39. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Yep 20 in Melb...
     
  40. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom sniffing something on the 18th/19th... (Hotham)
     
  41. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    I don't like the look of those temps. It seems like a 1800m+FL for Sunday atm?
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest EC (00Z) RE:18/19th:
    [​IMG]
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bonus-round follow-up trof-knuckle coming in for a brief hit on EC for the 21st too.
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah its warm atm. 00Z is ditto.
     
  45. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Looking at yr it suggests the r... will arrive late Sunday. Is that how you see it ? Ie weekend sking ok ?
     
  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS shows it a bit earlier than EC.
    I’d say an afternoon arrival at this point.
     
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  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cloud and wind beforehand IMO
    Bit of a bow wave this one
     
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saturday for the win.
     
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  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting convergence on GFS and EC about the 21st.



    Very ridgey though.
     
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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Worth considering
     
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