Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Not seeing much here TBH.

Reasonable agreement in the LR models indicating the fading LWT has some breathe left in it.
Models are aligned more-so on the ridge than the frontal system so I think we're looking at a clipper, with the potential to deliver 5-15cm in this date range IMO.
Ahead (~16th) of this system is some warmer, moist NW'ly inflow so likely to be prefrontal evident.

I think if we see a more stable negative AAO signal we could see things develop and upgrade, yet.

EC 17th Aug
Screen Shot 2019-08-07 at 8.22.09 am.png

GFS
Screen Shot 2019-08-07 at 8.23.45 am.png


A follow-up front is signaled by both GFS & EC ensembles, but GFS calls it SE Aus', whilst EC peaks it over SW WA (18th). The potential is certainly there as it does appear to be a strong system.
EC for the 18th, with a West Oz special:
Screen Shot 2019-08-07 at 8.37.08 am.png


GFS 19th:
Screen Shot 2019-08-07 at 8.28.04 am.png
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Aug 24, 2015
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The 18th one too:
5C26538E-C745-48D5-9557-874E42FA9FC7.png
OK you confused me jelly that 16th activity on my plots is warm
the real deal rare's its head dropping dam heights for snow
late into 17+18.
download (23).png download (17).png
download (23).png
download (17).png
[/QUOTE]
Yeah it’s a little warmer, but still would deliver 10-20cm.

EC still shows it to be weaker on 00z, so it’s probably just GFS adding extra moisture in for a few runs.
 

jungfrau

One of Us
Jun 25, 2013
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Looking at yr it suggests the r... will arrive late Sunday. Is that how you see it ? Ie weekend sking ok ?
 
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