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Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong push from the South. Match that deep layer Shear with a moist atmosphere - and - 10 at 700hPa and you have potential. Im not currently convinced with the progression atm though. Wait and see what the Major Models throw at us.
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks better ATM, but they both have the ridge.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not ideal. Rain Shadowed AF.
     
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  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That High is cheech and chong level.
    Needs some love to shape and move it along .
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z: "Sure, hold my beer"
    [​IMG]
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The improving trend is there on EC:


    Well supported by GFS this morning:


    All about timing with this one as some prefrontal is looking likely, 5-20cm with the potential of a good follow up fall on the 21st IMO.
     

    Attached Files:

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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has quite the conveyor belt type set-up.
    First system on the 18th/19th:

    Second system on the 21st:

    Third system on the 22nd/23rd:


    We shall have to wait and see how that pans out for it.
    EPS is backing systems on the 19th and 21st.
     
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  9. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    YR.NO for Perisher throwing it out there. 89.7 cm from 18th - 22nd Aug. Downgrade coming?
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep the 21st and 22nd pack a punch on 12z.
    I’d expect a downgrade.

    I’d say 5-15mm and 5-15cm for the 18th and 19th event.
     
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  11. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Jane suggesting the potential for a lot of snow, after the r...
     
  12. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Repeat of August 1991....
     
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  13. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict that good snow mid-next week would make me so happy.

    Yr Buller:

     
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  14. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    ... and me (for Perisher, but hope Buller gets some love too - deserves it).
     
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  15. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Or 92
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Careful banking your hopes/dreams on the yrno precip output.
    It's like being a coke-user with no money. Friggin' rollercoaster.
     
  17. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interschools State champs next week at Perisher weather is bound to be Sh!t
     
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  18. Timmossy

    Timmossy One of Us

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    A coke user with no money in Straya that is!
     
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  19. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    4 day rule strictly applies!
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Always.

    Eyeing off Thursday myself.
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    If the charts come off like the ensembles are suggesting. Buller will be wet... sorry.
    IMO looks like a zonal westerly setup with a potential of marginal temps
    :(
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Zonal? For Sunday eve?
    That's Ensembles (@+144hrs) for ya. You know ensembles are aggregate progs, right...?
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah laters in the week... where yr.no was being keen
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its also a healthy dose of gut feel
     
  25. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    @POW_hungry said that they will drop prefrontal because of drought etc, im sticking with that
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag loves the Monday...
    even throws in a cutoff
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Weatherzone even talking Thundersnow!
     
  28. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS upgraded for Sunday-Tuesday. Perhaps a little pre-frontal on Sunday, but not much IMO.
     
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  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    How very GFS of it.
     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    But the catch is that the 21st and 22nd are ridged out nearly, with only some snow showers getting through.
     
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  31. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dislike (on both counts).
     
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  32. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom (Hotham) edging up the moisture on yesterday...trending towards good dump territory...as long as the prefrontal isn't too brutal...
     
  33. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well there is going to be some prefrontal but at least 15-25cm on the backend IMO
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC still likes the 21st and 22nd.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks much better today on 00Z, that West Oz peaker is ridging Eastwards, our way.
    Breaking wave nearer the Bight. Low to the West of Tas. Just needs a touch more West Oz ridge.
    [​IMG]
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC pumping it up for the 21- 22 period with some strong Parameters.
     
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  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah nah tips its hat as well.
    I can't see it... but i'll be happy. Am down thursday next week for extended break
     
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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look at 250 hPa wind streams and compare with yesterday.
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    i'll look at them sunday night
     
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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    { Moderators note} Date range extended to Aug 22.
     
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  41. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  42. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Gee Wizz, Jane is bullish...
     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's raw yr. no data
     
  44. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Rookie mistake.
    Still, looks good...
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well, EC to be accurate!
     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Promising.
     
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  47. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    f = Total (×0.66666)
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC & TWC shake hands @ 00z.





    Realistically, for the big 5, IMO I think Sunday/Monday holds ~10mm prefrontal Sunday night, lowering from 1900m to 1600m by midnight.
    5-20cm of new snow by Monday morning above 1400m.

    EDIT:10-20mm of prefrontal rain.
     
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now if mine had of taken the flogs to the UK....

    I'm seeing this as a good old Aussie 20- 30cm storm
     
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  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Nice little top up in the making.
     
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