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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2019.
Back end is cold .
Yeah, down to 600m on the last EC prog, I saw.
Seeing a more meridonial flow today and finger is not on the pause button.
GFS 06z looks abs bloody stunning this evening.
06Z is always the smiling assassin of the bunch so take it with a grain of salt yet.
1 step at a time, and it still suggests a good positive gain for most resorts Sunday/Monday, IMO.
EC The cooler temps ( circa 1500 mtrs level ) coming through 10 pm Sunday night. Reasonable Geopot heights etc. Some ok reasons to have faith in what transpires imo.
Buller special that back end.
Yeah I reckon we will see 5-10mm of rain.
10-25cm of snow.
21st/22nd is still very much an open book
You know it started as a ridge? It’s trending the other way.
GFS has trend with 12z resembling 06z.
And EC resembles GFS this morning.
Even the Canuck has interest.
Guess where that leaves us?
Could be looking down the barrel of a solid week, next week.
EC Sunday night:
Albeit with some 10-15mm of rain Sunday that would be all but forgotten about by Monday, at this stage.
EC’s (& GFS) follow up on Wednesday looks super ridgy still.
Living on the edge:
EC is very interested still....
And many of the models, and people like Jane are too.
Nil change on GFS 18z.
This is looking pretty solid IMO.
... And with obvious, inherent risk for Wed/Thurs.
But Monday is beefed and jacked this AM.
15-25cm after the 10-15mm of Sunday night now, for the majors, IMO.
Wed/Thurs (EC Ensembles), with a Buller/Baws speshie.
Stay cold enough? GFS 06z determ suggests it gets a bit warm by Thurs.
Residual cold pool. It's enough IMO.
Not much to worry about, tail end would be dregs.
Looking like I’ll head back up Mon night and stay until thu/fri.
Enough to turn to gloop though. Definitely a get it while it's falling storm.
Spag hinting at a 3rd hit on the weekend....
Maybe extend.... ^^^
Looks like a brief but heavy snowfall possible for the CT's as well in that small window of cold temps and precip, Sunday night going into Monday morning.
Yeah, whole thing is on a knife edge, but it's trending positively, for now.
yep mostly on the improve by the day, nice sign, see how the back end fares over the weekend, 19th looking largely locked in.
EPS and GEFS isn't buying it.
19th is like a locked in 15-30cm.
21st could be another 20-40cm, but there's real ridge potential unfortunately.
Wouldn't be the worst IMO. 15cm hit from the SW followed by a hard ridge to cold and dry for the weekend. Better than 25cm warming to snot and refreeze. Base is good, just about the top 15-20cm now.
20-30 gets Buller totally firing.
Why is Buller noted to be the winner in this event, when the drive seems IMHO that its seems same as last event, when they missed?
back end of the system (actually a different system really) definitely favours Buller in it's current state, a direct shot from the SW.
Buller was the winner on the back half of the last event. It missed the first wave but almost made up for it when it went SW. (Baw Baw and LM too)
Notes from the State Control Centre, released yesterday.
Don't know which 'R' word I hate more now; Rain or Ridge.
They're both regretful, ruinous, reprehensible and rubbish.
One is most definitely worse than the other once a base is established. One promoted corn harvest, the other ruins it.
00z ICON thinks a complex lpa rollz the alps.
Probably one of the best potential setups for the years I've been going, and we'll be around on the Thursday.
Might be interesting driving heading over the top from Khancoban though.
Some crazy thickness dam levels are too sweep the alps thinks ec,gfs,cmc.ens meto's
click thumbnail too veiw.
Monday is looking really chilly for Vic/Tas. No doubt about it.
What sorts of thickness/snow level will sweep across southern vic as it stands now?
Snow above 600m as it stands.
EC (00z) standing staunch.
Better pressure, tighter heights closer in behind the front/trof.
Argh fug it. You get what I mean... Same caption, wrong image.
Too much trend watching.
Bom on board and liking the back end particularly (Hotham)...
P.S. Wednesday/Thursday is a ridge out... Soya mate!
Gonna be a few unhappy people out there. SnowSearch was beating the drum about it hard yesterday.
4 am to 10am 21st still on the cards imo.
Looks like we get Minecrafted !
1016-1020hPa over the alps.
Almost but not quite sunk yet.