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Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Back end is cold .
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, down to 600m on the last EC prog, I saw.
     
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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seeing a more meridonial flow today and finger is not on the pause button.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z looks abs bloody stunning this evening.
    06Z is always the smiling assassin of the bunch so take it with a grain of salt yet.


    1 step at a time, and it still suggests a good positive gain for most resorts Sunday/Monday, IMO.
     
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC The cooler temps ( circa 1500 mtrs level ) coming through 10 pm Sunday night. Reasonable Geopot heights etc. Some ok reasons to have faith in what transpires imo.
     
  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller special that back end.
     
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  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gunna ridge.
    IMO
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I reckon we will see 5-10mm of rain.
    10-25cm of snow.
    For 18th/19th.

    21st/22nd is still very much an open book
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You know it started as a ridge? It’s trending the other way.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well..
    GFS has trend with 12z resembling 06z.
    And EC resembles GFS this morning.
    Even the Canuck has interest.
    Guess where that leaves us?

    Could be looking down the barrel of a solid week, next week. :eek:

    EC Sunday night:


    Albeit with some 10-15mm of rain Sunday that would be all but forgotten about by Monday, at this stage.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC’s (& GFS) follow up on Wednesday looks super ridgy still.
    Living on the edge:
     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is very interested still....


    And many of the models, and people like Jane are too.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nil change on GFS 18z.
    This is looking pretty solid IMO.
     
  14. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ... And with obvious, inherent risk for Wed/Thurs.

    But Monday is beefed and jacked this AM.
    15-25cm after the 10-15mm of Sunday night now, for the majors, IMO.


    TWC:
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wed/Thurs (EC Ensembles), with a Buller/Baws speshie.
     
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  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay cold enough? GFS 06z determ suggests it gets a bit warm by Thurs.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Residual cold pool. It's enough IMO.
    Not much to worry about, tail end would be dregs.
     
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  19. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like I’ll head back up Mon night and stay until thu/fri.
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Enough to turn to gloop though. Definitely a get it while it's falling storm.
    Spag hinting at a 3rd hit on the weekend....




     
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  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe extend.... ;) ^^^
     
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  22. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Looks like a brief but heavy snowfall possible for the CT's as well in that small window of cold temps and precip, Sunday night going into Monday morning.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, whole thing is on a knife edge, but it's trending positively, for now.
     
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  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep mostly on the improve by the day, nice sign, see how the back end fares over the weekend, 19th looking largely locked in.
     
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  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS and GEFS isn't buying it.
     
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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    19th is like a locked in 15-30cm.
    21st could be another 20-40cm, but there's real ridge potential unfortunately.
     
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  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wouldn't be the worst IMO. 15cm hit from the SW followed by a hard ridge to cold and dry for the weekend. Better than 25cm warming to snot and refreeze. Base is good, just about the top 15-20cm now.
     
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  28. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    20-30 gets Buller totally firing.
     
  29. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    Why is Buller noted to be the winner in this event, when the drive seems IMHO that its seems same as last event, when they missed?
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    back end of the system (actually a different system really) definitely favours Buller in it's current state, a direct shot from the SW.
     
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  31. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller was the winner on the back half of the last event. It missed the first wave but almost made up for it when it went SW. (Baw Baw and LM too)
     
  32. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Notes from the State Control Centre, released yesterday.

     
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  33. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Don't know which 'R' word I hate more now; Rain or Ridge.

    They're both regretful, ruinous, reprehensible and rubbish.

    Really ;)
     
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  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    One is most definitely worse than the other once a base is established. One promoted corn harvest, the other ruins it.
     
  35. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    00z ICON thinks a complex lpa rollz the alps.
    download (28).png
     
  36. blowfin

    blowfin One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    *bubbles*
    Probably one of the best potential setups for the years I've been going, and we'll be around on the Thursday.
    Might be interesting driving heading over the top from Khancoban though.
     
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  37. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    Some crazy thickness dam levels are too sweep the alps thinks ec,gfs,cmc.ens meto's
    ecmwf-YMAY-winter_adv-5697600.png gem-YMAY-winter_adv-5697600.png gfs-YMAY-winter_adv-5719200.png click thumbnail too veiw.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday is looking really chilly for Vic/Tas. No doubt about it.
     
  39. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    What sorts of thickness/snow level will sweep across southern vic as it stands now?
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow above 600m as it stands.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC (00z) standing staunch.
    Better pressure, tighter heights closer in behind the front/trof.
    [​IMG]
     
  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterday’s chart?
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Argh fug it. You get what I mean... Same caption, wrong image.
    Too much trend watching.
     
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  45. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom on board and liking the back end particularly (Hotham)...
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    P.S. Wednesday/Thursday is a ridge out... Soya mate!
    Gonna be a few unhappy people out there. SnowSearch was beating the drum about it hard yesterday.
     
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    4 am to 10am 21st still on the cards imo.
     
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  48. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like we get Minecrafted !
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    1016-1020hPa over the alps.
    She's cooked.
     
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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Almost but not quite sunk yet.
     
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