Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Aug 24, 2015
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Almost but not quite sunk yet.
xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2019081400_162_13492_149 (1).png
Yeah there is something still something there as it stands.
But it is likely that the trend continues, and the models push it out fully IMO.
Watch tomorrow’s models, but the whole 21st thing has been ridgey from the start.
 
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mick chopps

Pool Room
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Jun 22, 2006
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Jane remains bullish about the follow up.
SUNDAY: Sunny for much of the day. Rain spreading through in the late afternoon and evening. Changing to snow after several hours of rain (likely to change: 9-11pm in VIC, 12-2am in NSW).

MONDAY and TUESDAY: Persistent snow, slowly easing to snow showers.

20 to 30 cm of snow, quickly falling down to 900m, then as low as 600m at times on Monday, back up to 1200m on Tuesday. This is after 10 to 20 mm of rain on Sunday.

Another strong front arrives later Wednesday into Thursday. Further bitterly cold air, and lots of snow.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY: Snow redeveloping during Wednesday, slowly easing on Thursday.

20 to 30 cm of snow, above 1600m at first, quickly dropping to 800m.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Jane remains bullish about the follow up.
SUNDAY: Sunny for much of the day. Rain spreading through in the late afternoon and evening. Changing to snow after several hours of rain (likely to change: 9-11pm in VIC, 12-2am in NSW).

MONDAY and TUESDAY: Persistent snow, slowly easing to snow showers.

20 to 30 cm of snow, quickly falling down to 900m, then as low as 600m at times on Monday, back up to 1200m on Tuesday. This is after 10 to 20 mm of rain on Sunday.

Another strong front arrives later Wednesday into Thursday. Further bitterly cold air, and lots of snow.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY: Snow redeveloping during Wednesday, slowly easing on Thursday.

20 to 30 cm of snow, above 1600m at first, quickly dropping to 800m.
There's actually a lot of moisture in the midweek system, but too bullish for Wed/Thurs IMO.
 
U

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!2z CMC back end of the trough like JMA.
2019-08-15 09_42_34-GDPS_ WeatherBell Maps.png gem-aus-z500_anom-6345600.png
2019-08-15 09_42_34-GDPS_ WeatherBell Maps.png
gem-aus-z500_anom-6345600.png


thinking a tweet even.
 
U

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Yes @ this range hugging determistic runs is not a good idea and quoting cm's @ that date is wayyyyy out there.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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In my experience, my general rule of thumb has always to remain sceptical of any WA 'snow events' that are forecasted/expected to go on to deliver snow to SE Aus. Of course, there are exceptional circumstances to this rule, but this is far from an exceptional system.

IMO the peak of the cold air is around South Aus, so it's still due to be 'on the way out' by the time it reaches the alps ie. Warm air advection is already in play by the time the front reaches us.

I do think, there is still a strong possibility of us gaining the majority of the precip on Sunday night BEFORE we see temps drop. The temp drop will be significant, but be very cautious about reading into YrNo's snowflake icon & mm precip progged - dangerous margin to assume IMO.
10-20mm is easily the current going rate for rainfall, I reckon.
upload_2019-8-15_13-48-3.png
 

Karicta

A Local
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Aug 9, 2011
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Yeah, prefrontal brutal on those BOM charts. Imbedded trough Monday is the money shot after steady snow following front to low levels Sunday night after 10pm.
 

bondibob

One of Us
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Jul 12, 2015
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Yeah, prefrontal brutal on those BOM charts. Imbedded trough Monday is the money shot after steady snow following front to low levels Sunday night after 10pm.
Are we still looking at 15-30cm but Monday morning Thredbo?

Got a 4 day camping tripling at sawpit ao vested interest in epic Monday/Tuesday.

Winds Saturday? I’m heading back country and hoping for a calm (ish) day
 
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