Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah there is something still something there as it stands.
    But it is likely that the trend continues, and the models push it out fully IMO.
    Watch tomorrow’s models, but the whole 21st thing has been ridgey from the start.
     
  2. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you mean the whole system has disintegrated into nothingness? If so - sudden!
     
  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Donza shock level
    0
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    No the 19th and 20th are fine.
    15-30cm as it stands IMO.
     
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  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah. This.
    It's a footer
     
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  6. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks!
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    * Perisher fine
    ** Elevation dependant
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller moist.
     
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  9. Jobe6

    Jobe6 Hard Yards

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    Rollercoaster lol one minute about to wet myself the next about to cry haha love these forums ty all far to invested in my one week for the year
     
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  10. 00z cmc had snow @21

    gem-aus-t500-6399600.png gem-aus-t700-6399600.png gem-aus-vort500_z500-6334800.png lol curve ball. .

     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo . 82 Knot Shear
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah.... Mind you. Look where the centre of the high is.......
     
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  13. Waiting on the 00z JMA, but yeah the 12z was nice!!!@21 Will compare the pair.
    jma-aus-z500_anom-6388800.png
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To be fair, that's 500mb heights, not MSLP.
    MSLP:
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Run Trend (4 spread). Including tonight's 06z

     
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  16. Yeah could snow over the N tabelands on that run.
    gem-aus-thck_1000-500-6388800.png
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Canadian 00Z for 21st
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am inclined to mark that one off as an outlier when I look at EC (00z) & GFS (06z) tonight.
    Still going through the other models now though.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Right Entrance versus left Exit scenario is quite interesting with these 2 Streams.
     
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  20. There no question the GFS is tamer. It's ens go with the cyclonic upper flow with decent dam levels.. MSLP modeling has lower pressure within the isobars.

    gfs-aus-vort500_z500-6356400 (2).png There is alp snow in this GFS 00z ens run no doubts here.
     
  21. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am looking at skiing next Tuesday if it snows properly at Falls on Monday. Am I barking up the right tree/ ski pole ?Ms. Bunn thinks , or so her modelling suggests that such a snowfall is likely.
    http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast
     
  22. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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    Looks like it will be a windy week.
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    And EC and GFS stubbornly sticking with the 22nd this morning.


     
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  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Particularly Sunday, and Wednesday per GFS.
     
  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC:
     
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    some nice alignment there eh.
     
  28. Sean Sunley

    Sean Sunley Addicted

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    Lift hold in the resorts these days?
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane remains bullish about the follow up.
    SUNDAY: Sunny for much of the day. Rain spreading through in the late afternoon and evening. Changing to snow after several hours of rain (likely to change: 9-11pm in VIC, 12-2am in NSW).

    MONDAY and TUESDAY: Persistent snow, slowly easing to snow showers.

    20 to 30 cm of snow, quickly falling down to 900m, then as low as 600m at times on Monday, back up to 1200m on Tuesday. This is after 10 to 20 mm of rain on Sunday.

    Another strong front arrives later Wednesday into Thursday. Further bitterly cold air, and lots of snow.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY: Snow redeveloping during Wednesday, slowly easing on Thursday.

    20 to 30 cm of snow, above 1600m at first, quickly dropping to 800m.
     
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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Give it a day or two more for approximations.
    But those days are the two windiest.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's actually a lot of moisture in the midweek system, but too bullish for Wed/Thurs IMO.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wednesday AM on 18z.
    One front + a bunch of cold air. All the meat and potatoes are sent to the Tasman/Van Diemans.
    meh.
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. !2z CMC back end of the trough like JMA.
    2019-08-15 09_42_34-GDPS_ WeatherBell Maps.png gem-aus-z500_anom-6345600.png

    thinking a tweet even.
     
  34. Cream run so far 18z ICON 19th 983mb over tassie.
    download (1).png download (2).png
     
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  35. POW_hungry likes this.
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    4 day rule
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Particularly pertinent to any system behind another.
     
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  39. Yes @ this range hugging determistic runs is not a good idea and quoting cm's @ that date is wayyyyy out there.
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In my experience, my general rule of thumb has always to remain sceptical of any WA 'snow events' that are forecasted/expected to go on to deliver snow to SE Aus. Of course, there are exceptional circumstances to this rule, but this is far from an exceptional system.

    IMO the peak of the cold air is around South Aus, so it's still due to be 'on the way out' by the time it reaches the alps ie. Warm air advection is already in play by the time the front reaches us.

    I do think, there is still a strong possibility of us gaining the majority of the precip on Sunday night BEFORE we see temps drop. The temp drop will be significant, but be very cautious about reading into YrNo's snowflake icon & mm precip progged - dangerous margin to assume IMO.
    10-20mm is easily the current going rate for rainfall, I reckon.
     
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  42. About a 30% chance @ this point of time for a foot's worth out of the boms grafic posted above.
     
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  43. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, prefrontal brutal on those BOM charts. Imbedded trough Monday is the money shot after steady snow following front to low levels Sunday night after 10pm.
     
  44. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are we still looking at 15-30cm but Monday morning Thredbo?

    Got a 4 day camping tripling at sawpit ao vested interest in epic Monday/Tuesday.

    Winds Saturday? I’m heading back country and hoping for a calm (ish) day
     
  45. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

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    Sat looks like low winds 10knots
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    RE: WEDNESDAY
    Ridgier... on EC this arvo, against this morning/last nights run.
    The trend continues IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  48. blowfin

    blowfin One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was always Gunna happen