Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

Jellybeans

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What do people think of the prediction for snow at Bluff Knoll on Saturday? BOM is calling for falls to 600m as of this morning. Hard to see any blue on GFS, but the 540 line well and truly goes above the Stirling Ranges from late Friday. I'm not planning on heading down there for it, just curious.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...s-forecast-bluff-knoll-this-saturday/11414524
~700-800m on Saturday morning from my perspective.
900-1100m as the day moves along.
Not a heap of precipitation, but should be enough for a few cms IMO
 
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Donza

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???
Screenshot_2019-08-15-17-25-13-03.png
 

POW Hungry

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What do people think of the prediction for snow at Bluff Knoll on Saturday? BOM is calling for falls to 600m as of this morning. Hard to see any blue on GFS, but the 540 line well and truly goes above the Stirling Ranges from late Friday. I'm not planning on heading down there for it, just curious.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...s-forecast-bluff-knoll-this-saturday/11414524
540 typically won't cut the mustard for The Stirlings, you'll want sub-534 thickness, with Southerly flow for good accumulation (minimal rain/wintery mix).
GFS won't have the resolution to pick up Bluff Knoll, it's a pin prick on the models except maybe EC/AXS-R & C.
No point using YrNo. It's the wrong coordinates.
4am-10am Saturday morning is your window IMO
5cm accumulation at best, I reckon
Horrendous conditions for a pitch-black kick off... she's blowing 30-40 knots, not including gusts.
 
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balmz

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Tend to focus more on local events, and not many of them live in the Snowys. Major cities have had boring weather for a month or so, they’ll perk up when that changes
Haha yep. Just wait until the storm season kicks off and cells start rolling through Sydney and SE QLD.

Anyway, that High pressure system behind is a behmoth. - Hope that buggers off real quick and doesn't hang around for long.
 
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7wombathead

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Clipper Psyops.

Don't talk it up too much without a cut of the pie.

The beast behind it looks crazy for Indo and later here.

:);)
 

POW Hungry

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Looks like a reasonable clipper system, certainly not 30-60cm like I'm seeing some forecasts stating......

I would be thinking somewhere in the vicinity of 20-30cm over late Sunday to early Tuesday.....

@POW_hungry what are your current thoughts?
10-20mm rain Sunday night.
10-25cm by Monday AM above 1500m, 5-10cm below that.
10-15cm from Tuesday night to Thursday AM.
IMO.
 

Gregah

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10-20mm rain Sunday night.
10-25cm by Monday AM above 1500m, 5-10cm below that.
10-15cm from Tuesday night to Thursday AM.
IMO.
Bom (Hotham) are thinking more at your lower end. And yes, Wednesday reduced to clipper...
upload_2019-8-16_16-44-1.png
 
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tomtankman

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Latest models indicate almost no prefrontal rain on Sunday. If you line up ACCESSR 850hPA and Precip at 7pm there is only 1-5mm ahead of the 2C isotherm - and thats at about 1400m so for most of the resorts it will be cold enough for snow shortly after precip commences. This is a positive turnaround because on Monday (or it could have been Sunday) EC showed about 30mm of prefrontal and only 10cm of snow.
 

Kletterer

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Sunday 7- 9 pm- EC Rapid and ICON have the cold arriving later ( 60-90 minutes perhaps) than GFS . GEM is middway. As expected imo.
 
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EC 3 runs ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (1).png ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (2).png ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200.png
ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (1).png
ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (2).png
ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200.png


Correcting its self,was hundreds of km's offshore likely miss reading the hpa too the east. The boms 4 day plot showed a strong c/f extending that would rip a ridge down
and they take time too rebuild in.

signing off.
 

POW Hungry

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EC 3 runs ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (1).png ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (2).png ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200.png
ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (1).png
ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (2).png
ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200.png


Correcting its self,was hundreds of km's offshore likely miss reading the hpa too the east. The boms 4 day plot showed a strong c/f extending that would rip a ridge down
and there take time too rebuild in.

signing off.
Noted.
It might be too little too late with the Tasmania shadow in full effect by Thursday.
Ridge dominance takes hold Wednesday night IMO.
 
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