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Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    ~700-800m on Saturday morning from my perspective.
    900-1100m as the day moves along.
    Not a heap of precipitation, but should be enough for a few cms IMO
     
    blowfin likes this.
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    4am Wed to 4am Thursday.
     
  4. Snow showers @21on the run
    9-km ECMWF International Surface New South Wales 500 hPa Temperature.gif 9-km ECMWF International Surface New South Wales 700 hPa Temperature.gif download (12).png

     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    540 typically won't cut the mustard for The Stirlings, you'll want sub-534 thickness, with Southerly flow for good accumulation (minimal rain/wintery mix).
    GFS won't have the resolution to pick up Bluff Knoll, it's a pin prick on the models except maybe EC/AXS-R & C.
    No point using YrNo. It's the wrong coordinates.
    4am-10am Saturday morning is your window IMO
    5cm accumulation at best, I reckon
    Horrendous conditions for a pitch-black kick off... she's blowing 30-40 knots, not including gusts.
     
    Claude Cat and User has resigned like this.
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. 00Z cmc likes 22.With some for the north. gem-aus-z500_anom-6410400.png gem-aus-z500_anom-6453600.png
    gem-aus-t500-6410400.png gem-aus-t500-6453600.png gem-aus-t700-6410400.png gem-aus-t700-6453600.png
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jeepers, Stanthorpe special.
     
  9. Was run in winter mode.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here at ski.com.au we froth on winter mode.
    Run more in winter mode. pls, thank you.
     
  11. Were's the weatherzoners the more posters the better dont be shy.
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    WRF for WED 10AM local:

     
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  13. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    They seem to have their own threads but they appear to be a more generalised discussion IMO. You guys here really get into the Nitty gritty of potential snow events. They might liven up come storm and cyclone season.
     
    Claude Cat, JM72, Edgecrusher and 2 others like this.
  14. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Tend to focus more on local events, and not many of them live in the Snowys. Major cities have had boring weather for a month or so, they’ll perk up when that changes
     
  15. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Fizzzzzzzzer
     
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  16. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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    How is it looking for wind hold on lifts at Thredbo next week? I see some ‘gale force’ forecasts for tues/wed.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday and Wednesday look like the troublesome days for winds IMO.
    Not gonna touch the ‘windhold’ subject though.
     
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  18. balmz

    balmz Hard Yards

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    Haha yep. Just wait until the storm season kicks off and cells start rolling through Sydney and SE QLD.

    Anyway, that High pressure system behind is a behmoth. - Hope that buggers off real quick and doesn't hang around for long.
     
    skiflat likes this.
  19. CMC 12z cold snap moving up the coastline is eye catching!!! Back end wave breaking.
    gem-aus-z500_anom-6108000.png gem-aus-z500_anom-6162000.png gem-all-aus-z500_anom-1565870400-1566399600-1566518400-40 (1).gif
     
  20. Noooooooo
    I have seen more than enough too pull the trigger.

    download (1).png download (5).png
     
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Clipper Psyops.

    Don't talk it up too much without a cut of the pie.

    The beast behind it looks crazy for Indo and later here.

    :);)
     
  22. yeah we been looking @ that anom for awhile in the bbq thread
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  23. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest from the State Control Centre (BOM/EMV/SES)
    #nofizzer

     
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  24. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    If I can ask .. what time do we expect precipitation on Sunday at Hotham ?
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    3-4pm
     
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  27. rols

    rols Addicted

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    Seems to be looking better for Tassie this system
     
  28. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Looks pretty cold this system to me,snow to around 500m imo similar coldness to the last system?
     
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looks like a reasonable clipper system, certainly not 30-60cm like I'm seeing some forecasts stating......

    I would be thinking somewhere in the vicinity of 20-30cm over late Sunday to early Tuesday.....

    @POW_hungry what are your current thoughts?
     
  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IMO they're dreaming
     
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  31. ground swell thinks eps.maybe some errosion.
    nemap_mean168 (1).png
     
  32. CMC 00z holds serve.
    gem-aus-thck_1000-500-6162000.png gem-aus-z500_anom-6140400.png gem-all-aus-z500_anom-1565913600-1566399600-1566529200-40.gif
     
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  33. As does 12z GEFS ENS - JMA 1.25 Operational
    jma-aus-thck_1000-500-6151200 (2).png

    Been no cherry picking every model see's this system.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10-20mm rain Sunday night.
    10-25cm by Monday AM above 1500m, 5-10cm below that.
    10-15cm from Tuesday night to Thursday AM.
    IMO.
     
  35. Got aleast a foot for some resorts.
     
  36. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom (Hotham) are thinking more at your lower end. And yes, Wednesday reduced to clipper...
     
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  37. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Latest models indicate almost no prefrontal rain on Sunday. If you line up ACCESSR 850hPA and Precip at 7pm there is only 1-5mm ahead of the 2C isotherm - and thats at about 1400m so for most of the resorts it will be cold enough for snow shortly after precip commences. This is a positive turnaround because on Monday (or it could have been Sunday) EC showed about 30mm of prefrontal and only 10cm of snow.
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No cigar at 6 pm on EC 00Z
     
  39. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Splitfest :)
     
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  40. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Is that 2feet main range?
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday 7- 9 pm- EC Rapid and ICON have the cold arriving later ( 60-90 minutes perhaps) than GFS . GEM is middway. As expected imo.
     
  42. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vic swell system this one. Gonna be big Wednesday on Wednesday
     
  43. It thinks 50+c but under 60.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You'll find the higher-end of the scale in the NSW resorts.
    They love a NNW'ly.
     
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  45. EC 3 runs ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (1).png ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200 (2).png ecmwf-aus-thck_1000-500-6475200.png

    Correcting its self,was hundreds of km's offshore likely miss reading the hpa too the east. The boms 4 day plot showed a strong c/f extending that would rip a ridge down
    and they take time too rebuild in.

    signing off.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Noted.
    It might be too little too late with the Tasmania shadow in full effect by Thursday.
    Ridge dominance takes hold Wednesday night IMO.
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good pick-up on the favoring of CMC @Jwintermix
    *tips hat*