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Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah we are still seeing some higher amounts on EC.


    Those 00z and 12z runs from yesterday @Jwintermix noted all reported lower totals, so we definitely have an upgrade here.

    Wednesday SLs should run around 1400-1700m.

    We are talking 10-20cm Wednesday
    5-10cm Tuesday.
    5cm for Perisher on Thurs, 5-15cm for Southern places.

    That’s on top of the Sun/Mon 15-30cm.

    This is all mainly based on Perisher and MR resorts.
    Buller should expect not a great deal from Wednesday, although the SW does favour.
    Thursday is Buller special though.

    So basically another 15-30cm from Tues-Thurs for the MR.
    30-60cm all up.
    Lower range for Buller and lower Hotham/Falls.
    Higher range for Perisher/Thredbo.
     
  2. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  3. xuěboarder

    xuěboarder One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've got the entire week free, what's the pick for buller? Tia
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like a day? Monday or Thursday (afternoon). Thursday will probably feature the better snow out of the two. More winds on Thursday though.

    Friday if you want light winds, clear skies, but no freshies.
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m thinking Stirling on Thursday then Little Chopps to Baw Baw on Friday.
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    When the rain stops
     
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  7. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw will be perfection for kids.
     
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  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah first day on snow since last year, good to reintroduce her again on what should be a perfect day.
     
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  9. xuěboarder

    xuěboarder One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday was my original pick for that reason, worried about the temp change Sunday arvo
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just looks real westerly most of the week.
    Even at Neg 2. That's rain at Buller
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday will be great for Buller. Go then.
    Monday may not be so great for Buller, just depends on how SW that wind goes and timing. It looks like rain before midnight Monday. Probably 10-15cm afterwards.
    I’m more worried about temps, than wind on Wednesday for Buller.
     
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  12. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah just looking at Yr it does get warm Wed night, and Windy definitely shows the westerly flow @Donzah is talking about.

    I'll be there Mon night, come back either Thu or Fri depending on conditions. Could be great or could be shit.
     
  13. WEST.png JWEST.png range as is atm
     
  14. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am tossing up Mt. Stirling for Wed. XC skiing or head for Mt Buffalo again while it is skiable .Tuesday next week looks like Falls/ BHP XC skiing for me.
     
  15. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Westerly
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS likes the back end for moisture @ 700 hPa to feed our beloved DGZ. Some nice Upper Level Divergence to go with it.Still a possibility for a slight upgrade imo. Bottom 2 plots are 4am Wed 21st ;)
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 18Z Temps 8pm Sunday. Might need to be patient until around that time . And the precipitation plot for the 24 hours prior
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems about right to what I've been expecting.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    4am Sunday to 4am Monday via OCF:
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Definitely[​IMG] some Meat in this one.
     
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  22. Cold sw wind wed.
    113.png
     
  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Looks cold with a fair bit of juice coming through the strezleckis while the 528 line is over our area! Flurries to 400m imo
     
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  24. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Precip levels seem to have dropped a bit for Buller. Hopefully Temps don't get too high Wed.

    Still better than nothing
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wrong side of the continent tho. Just saying.
     
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  26. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    JM72, AussieWhite and Paperboy like this.
  27. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    F A B
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    9- 10pm Sunday should bring some worthwhile webcam veiwing.
     
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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXSR showing a fair bit of precipitation.
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has this prior to 10 pm. Could be worse.
     
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  33. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom Hotham
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R showing virtually no pre-frontal rain this arvo.
    Big late shift.
    20-30cm by tomorrow AM.
     
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  35. Part2 download (2).png download (1).png 9-km ECMWF International Surface New South Wales 500 hPa Temperature (1).gif 2019-08-18 18_15_22-AH Maps 2019-8-18 at 8.14.58 - Windows Photo Viewer.png

    All down hill after this imo.
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z has snow starting a bit earlier too.
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM going with snow down to 400m tomorrow.
     
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  38. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Slim chance the odd flake might make it to eureka?:nerd:
     
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  39. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Fair bit of juice with it to cc, could get a nice dusting around the lower hills
     
  40. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tassie same
     
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  41. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Tassie 400m in the north and 300m in south
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looks fairly dry-ish to me.
    Perhaps a couple of mm in Melbourne, perhaps 5mm/5cm for the hills IMO.
     
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  43. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Surprisingly ACCESSG picked the warmer Wednesday temps before all other models - from mid last week. Freezing levels later Wednesday when the precip picks up again could rise to around 1900m. Still a definite gain in snow from this week.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane saying 1600m for Wednesday.

    MONDAY: Persistent snow, easing to snow showers.

    2 to 5cm of snow, falling as low as 400m in the morning. Rising back up to 1000m by the evening.

    Another front increases the snow later Tuesday into Wednesday, then another arrives later Wednesday into Thursday. But… it does warm a little with these.

    TUESDAY: Foggy cloud, but only flurries for much of the day. Then snow develops late afternoon and at night.

    2 to 5 cm of snow, above 1200m, rising to 1600m.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY: Snow through Wednesday and on Thursday morning, easing on Thursday afternoon.

    15 to 30 cm of snow, above 1600m on Wednesday, falling back to 1200m on Thursday morning (below 1600m: up to 20mm of rain).
     
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  46. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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  47. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    I have not worked with Jane so Im not going to judge her as a meteorologist but 1600m seems to low for Wednesday based on the 850hPA height and temps.
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd say 1600-1700m, maybe a tad higher than what Jane suggests. But she's pretty close IMO.
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GP Height's progged by EC last Thursday (15th) are non-conducive to much below 1800/1900m IMO. Sorry, I don't recall referring to AXS mid-last week, it's generally a model I am cautious of in the LR.
    [​IMG]