Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2019.

  1. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    EC at 4pm Wednesday. 850hPA = 3C. 850hPA height = 1470m. Atmosphere saturated. That would lead to a freezing level of 2000m. Wet snow down to about 1800/1900m IMO.
     
  2. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    The above chart is from 15th, yesterday’s BOM 4 day has the high further west and also for Friday with a more sw direction
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 10 am ( 850 hPa) Wed paints a slightly better scenario imo. Warm advection beforehand making things marginal below 1800 mts .
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    +30 knots from the WSW buffering the main range for some cooling.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll agree though, it doesn't look fantastic.
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The EC charts I am looking at range from 1800-2000m in terms of FLs.
     
  7. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Upstream surface air on Wednesday afternoon near the VIC/NSW border is forecast to be 15C with a 10C dew point. Lifting this vertically on a skew-T leads to a freezing level >2000m so I would argue the cooling from adiabatic lifting will not help on Wednesday afternoon.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Try the diurnal low.
     
  9. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    Thursday has become more interesting with todays 4 day BOM charts than yesterday
     

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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks quite disinteresting & lack luster for Thursday, TBH.
    That said, I didn't take any notice of BoM's 4-dayer yesterday.
     
  11. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    Which charts do BOM use? EC? ....
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the 4 dayer is based off EC. The forecasters themselves would be across all the major models.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Modelled off EC as I understand it.
     
  14. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    BOM forecast for Snow Mountains and GFS/AXSR models seem quite contradictory to me. BOM says snowlines 1300/1400m and Thredbo top getting 10-30mm Wednesday. I'm seeing much higher snow lines on models as discussed above and 10mm or so of precip, if we are lucky (or unlucky if snowlines do rise significantly).
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has a snow level of 1681 metres at its highest point. Thats tuesday at 4pm.
    It drops after that. By wednesday evening its down to 1259 metres
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid hourly snowline plots Wed morning. 10 am- Midday.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Definitely contradicting BoM's 1300m (NSW).
    Snow falling above 1700/1800m for NSW, seems about right, looking at EC/AXS-R tonight IMO.

    I see WZ just upped 1400m to 1600m this arvo (for Wednesday). Very odd forecast from BoM.
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. GFS has the cold further North.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Marginal for Vic. On EC
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tbh i think EC is wobbling a bit compared to GFS last 4 runs. Temps for WED not written in stone just yet. That said EC is hinting at an earlier dry out ( Wed) to go with temp rise and pressure gradient/ gas law expectations. IMO.
     
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  21. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    How's the freezing levels looking today Gurus?

    The Grasshopper over at mountain watch has it at 1600-1700. Very touch and go, especially given the amount of precip we are looking at.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    1700m at best IMO. Acummulation marginal below 1800m IMO.
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller should see snow go down to 1500m around lunchtime, 1400m a bit later.
    Falls/Hotham mid afternoon to 1400-1500m.
    Thredbo down around 5/6pm
    I would say 1600-1700m too, before these times.
     
  24. Whats the dgz/ band and humidity % looking like.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Vapour Trans. at 700hPa 4am Wed to 10 pm Wed.
     
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  26. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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    Can I ask what you think that all means in terms of wind-direction and strength (Thredbo)? I'm trying to plan a day off for tomorrow or Thursday, leaning towards tomorrow based on BOM forecast.
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its the Atmospheric path of vapour along the 700 hpa geopotential height ( circa 2900 mtr elevation) dependant on atmospheric pressure. Wind direction can differ at other altitudes . Advection at lower levels ( 850- 800 hPa ) is what needs to be considered.
     
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  28. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Pretty sure that can be translated as 'blowing it tits off"

    I am in the same boat 'Lifes2Good'. I am calling it tonight and going up.

    Plenty of moisture too. I am wondering what the freeze levels will be at.
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid Dew Points are looking lacklustre for the Alps until at least midday Wed.
     
  30. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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    Show off! What’s that in English? Weds or Thurs?
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you're going to Thredbo, you'll be skiing rain below Cruiser Chair tomorrow IMO.
    Winter Mix/Snow combo for Perisher.

    EC 00z Skew-T for Perisher (-36,4055S, 148,402E) 10am Tomorrow .
    FL: 1950m
    Uppers: -21C
    DGZ: aloft & moderate humidity



    Access-C 00z Perisher 10am:
    FL: ~1700m
    Uppers: -20C
    850mb: 2C


    Upper Level Temps (500mb):
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well from an Entropic point of view the model output is saying take a good outer shell and rubber gloves if you want to ski in Vic before midday and stay high in NSW. Wind should be slightly less that BOM predictions imo. Gusts a bit stronger in NSW than Vicco.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind will be raging in the AM out of the SW 30-40 knots (not gusts).
    Personally, I think it's a catch 22 tomorrow: up high is gonna be diabolical at exposures and in the wind, down low, sheltered will be wet.
    That said, winds should ease slightly in the arvo.

    AXS-C @ just below resort level exposures:
     
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  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Take the day off tomorrow. Thursday will not feature the rain. And the winds will ease throughout the day on the forecast.
     
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  36. TheFake

    TheFake One of Us

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    Does the same apply to Buller? Thursday the pick?
     
  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sure does.
    If you want the 5-10cm at the tailend, go Thursday.
    If you want the sun with a good cover, go Friday.
     
  38. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    anyone want to put a snowfall amount for say Perisher (above 1700m) by Thursday midday?
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Circa 20 cents above 1800m seems the going rate IMO.
     
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  40. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds exciting I predict I will go to Blue Cow
     
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  41. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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    Thanks. I’ll do both of those!
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I notice Jane went to 'snow above 1800m' this morning.
    Got there in the end I suppose.
     
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  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid output- the combination of precip and require Dew Points are not looking too flash for Vic resorts atm imo.
     
  45. faceshotss

    faceshotss Hard Yards

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    Whats the call for this weekend guys? Looking wet next 24 hrs and Saturday is looking particularly windy... Eeek..
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depends where you are.
     
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  47. faceshotss

    faceshotss Hard Yards

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    Thredbo/Perisher.

    W/e mission from Syd.
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Doesn't look wet to me.
    20-30 knots Perisher Saturday arvo. No show stopper in resorts, by any means.
     
  49. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard snow and groomers are back
     
  50. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Mt.Stirling is looking like sunshine and complete cover from top to bottom tomorrow. :)