Predictions Aug.16-22nd Clipper & Follow-up

tomtankman

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I'd say 1600-1700m, maybe a tad higher than what Jane suggests. But she's pretty close IMO.
EC at 4pm Wednesday. 850hPA = 3C. 850hPA height = 1470m. Atmosphere saturated. That would lead to a freezing level of 2000m. Wet snow down to about 1800/1900m IMO.
 

Vandans

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The above chart is from 15th, yesterday’s BOM 4 day has the high further west and also for Friday with a more sw direction
 

Kletterer

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GFS 10 am ( 850 hPa) Wed paints a slightly better scenario imo. Warm advection beforehand making things marginal below 1800 mts .
better.gif
 

tomtankman

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+30 knots from the WSW buffering the main range for some cooling.

Upstream surface air on Wednesday afternoon near the VIC/NSW border is forecast to be 15C with a 10C dew point. Lifting this vertically on a skew-T leads to a freezing level >2000m so I would argue the cooling from adiabatic lifting will not help on Wednesday afternoon.
 

POW Hungry

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Upstream surface air on Wednesday afternoon near the VIC/NSW border is forecast to be 15C with a 10C dew point. Lifting this vertically on a skew-T leads to a freezing level >2000m so I would argue the cooling from adiabatic lifting will not help on Wednesday afternoon.
Try the diurnal low.
 

Vandans

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Thursday has become more interesting with todays 4 day BOM charts than yesterday
 

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BlueHue

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BOM forecast for Snow Mountains and GFS/AXSR models seem quite contradictory to me. BOM says snowlines 1300/1400m and Thredbo top getting 10-30mm Wednesday. I'm seeing much higher snow lines on models as discussed above and 10mm or so of precip, if we are lucky (or unlucky if snowlines do rise significantly).
 

Donza

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BOM forecast for Snow Mountains and GFS/AXSR models seem quite contradictory to me. BOM says snowlines 1300/1400m and Thredbo top getting 10-30mm Wednesday. I'm seeing much higher snow lines on models as discussed above and 10mm or so of precip, if we are lucky (or unlucky if snowlines do rise significantly).
GFS has a snow level of 1681 metres at its highest point. Thats tuesday at 4pm.
It drops after that. By wednesday evening its down to 1259 metres
 

POW Hungry

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EC Rapid hourly snowline plots Wed morning. 10 am- Midday.
xx_model-en-304-0_modezrpd_2019081900_48_13491_305.png
xx_model-en-304-0_modezrpd_2019081900_49_13491_305.png
xx_model-en-304-0_modezrpd_2019081900_50_13491_305.png
Definitely contradicting BoM's 1300m (NSW).
Snow falling above 1700/1800m for NSW, seems about right, looking at EC/AXS-R tonight IMO.

I see WZ just upped 1400m to 1600m this arvo (for Wednesday). Very odd forecast from BoM.
 

Kletterer

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Definitely contradicting BoM's 1300m (NSW).
Snow falling above 1700/1800m for NSW, seems about right, looking at EC/AXS-R tonight IMO.

I see WZ just upped 1400m to 1600m this arvo (for Wednesday). Very odd forecast from BoM.
Yep. GFS has the cold further North.
 

Kletterer

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Tbh i think EC is wobbling a bit compared to GFS last 4 runs. Temps for WED not written in stone just yet. That said EC is hinting at an earlier dry out ( Wed) to go with temp rise and pressure gradient/ gas law expectations. IMO.
 
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FatBob

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How's the freezing levels looking today Gurus?

The Grasshopper over at mountain watch has it at 1600-1700. Very touch and go, especially given the amount of precip we are looking at.
 

Jellybeans

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How's the freezing levels looking today Gurus?

The Grasshopper over at mountain watch has it at 1600-1700. Very touch and go, especially given the amount of precip we are looking at.
Buller should see snow go down to 1500m around lunchtime, 1400m a bit later.
Falls/Hotham mid afternoon to 1400-1500m.
Thredbo down around 5/6pm
I would say 1600-1700m too, before these times.
 

Kletterer

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Can I ask what you think that all means in terms of wind-direction and strength (Thredbo)? I'm trying to plan a day off for tomorrow or Thursday, leaning towards tomorrow based on BOM forecast.
Its the Atmospheric path of vapour along the 700 hpa geopotential height ( circa 2900 mtr elevation) dependant on atmospheric pressure. Wind direction can differ at other altitudes . Advection at lower levels ( 850- 800 hPa ) is what needs to be considered.
 
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FatBob

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Pretty sure that can be translated as 'blowing it tits off"

I am in the same boat 'Lifes2Good'. I am calling it tonight and going up.

Plenty of moisture too. I am wondering what the freeze levels will be at.
 

Lifes2good

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Its the Atmospheric path of vapour along the 700 hpa geopotential height ( circa 2900 mtr elevation) dependant on atmospheric pressure. Wind direction can differ at other altitudes . Advection at lower levels ( 850- 800 hPa ) is what needs to be considered.
Show off! What’s that in English? Weds or Thurs?
 
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POW Hungry

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If you're going to Thredbo, you'll be skiing rain below Cruiser Chair tomorrow IMO.
Winter Mix/Snow combo for Perisher.

EC 00z Skew-T for Perisher (-36,4055S, 148,402E) 10am Tomorrow .
FL: 1950m
Uppers: -21C
DGZ: aloft & moderate humidity

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 6.34.32 pm.png


Access-C 00z Perisher 10am:
FL: ~1700m
Uppers: -20C
850mb: 2C
Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 6.49.31 pm.png


Upper Level Temps (500mb):
Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 6.50.18 pm.png
 

Kletterer

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Show off! What’s that in English? Weds or Thurs?
Well from an Entropic point of view the model output is saying take a good outer shell and rubber gloves if you want to ski in Vic before midday and stay high in NSW. Wind should be slightly less that BOM predictions imo. Gusts a bit stronger in NSW than Vicco.
 
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POW Hungry

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Wind will be raging in the AM out of the SW 30-40 knots (not gusts).
Personally, I think it's a catch 22 tomorrow: up high is gonna be diabolical at exposures and in the wind, down low, sheltered will be wet.
That said, winds should ease slightly in the arvo.

AXS-C @ just below resort level exposures:
Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 7.05.54 pm.png
 
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Jellybeans

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Can I ask what you think that all means in terms of wind-direction and strength (Thredbo)? I'm trying to plan a day off for tomorrow or Thursday, leaning towards tomorrow based on BOM forecast.
Take the day off tomorrow. Thursday will not feature the rain. And the winds will ease throughout the day on the forecast.
 

Kletterer

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EC Rapid output- the combination of precip and require Dew Points are not looking too flash for Vic resorts atm imo.
 

ben0

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Whats the call for this weekend guys? Looking wet next 24 hrs and Saturday is looking particularly windy... Eeek..
 
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