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Predictions August 10th - 15th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The 10/11 has looked like producing something for a few days now.
    Looks relatively weak at this stage though.
    IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    GFS has also a huge system at the 14th, but a long way out now
     
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  2. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    i observe the progged peaking has moved east...
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wait til EC and GEM comes out and then we have some comparison
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has follow-up on 14th as a big event, but it's all pie in the sky stuff being GFS @300hrs out.
     
    #4 POW_hungry, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is the EC 00Z run. But it has been on EC and GEM for the last few days. Check back in a week I reckon.;)
     
    #5 POW_hungry, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
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  6. Timmossy

    Timmossy One of Us

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    Methinks I just needa turn off from these threads until 2 days in advance to stop the super excitement and follow up super disappointment of current event.

    BACK ON TOPIC :out:
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you're chasing optimistic, glossy-front-page-news-headline weather predictions maybe head over to Mountainwatch or Snowatch... Monitoring weather models 'aint the best for an optimist.
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    My eyes are broken ;)
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Frog thinks it will only provide a few cms on the 10th. Apparently he came from these forums, is he still lurking around here somewhere? :woohoo:
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You could just not read the thread until 2 days out?
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Admittingly the ensembles have this period looking pretty 'ridgy'.
     
  12. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The leadup doesn't look too good to me. At the very least getting quite warm. Much rain?
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    8th & 9th look marginal at this stage. IMO
    But not catastrophic either.
     
  14. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks. Was going to have a few days off from next Monday. May take a punt on the week after instead. Looks promising at this stage. As it always does this far out on GFS. SOT. ;)
     
    #14 PMG, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
  15. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Or just accept it for what it is. We are basically using super computers to crunch massive amounts of data to help us predict the future of an infinetly complex system.

    Its quite relaxing once you realise that at any point in the future, the weather is going to be what it will be and it was always going to be that way.

    It is our human nature that drives us to try and predict a system that really doesn't care what we think or what our computer models say.

    Its the beauty in the complexity and every day we get to try again.
     
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  16. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's something about the end of the spag that I feel has the vibe (just outside these dates though)
     
  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing much on spag for anything in the next 2 weeks. Expect that to change.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Super weak on all the major models this morning. Some pre-frontal rain and quick little system progged for the 10th at the moment.
    CMC & GFS like the 14th but EC going with a blocking high - No alignment here.
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I got not much on my charts.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking ridged out on GFS today

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    And marginal on EC
    (IMO)

    [​IMG]
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I guess the highs are not particularly big or strong, so that gives us some hope.
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    I am going to be the first to take a guess at the snowfall- Maybe 20-30mm before and 5-15cm in Snow IMO. Of course it is early days but the factors are not great for a dump
     
  24. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    ^^ Inland Heat lows already forming in Northern WA. That's a bit early....
     
  25. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Location:
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    Zen...
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS looks whack for this period now.

    [​IMG]
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Peaking too early & ridging out on EC
    [​IMG]

    Potentially 20-30mm rain below 1800m on the 10th. :(
     
  28. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    ENS not looking to bad alot can change but par for more atm.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ^^ That looks weak to me for EC @234hrs out.
    14th virtually gone also on all the majors.

    Tropo has it looking 'ok' at best. If I were a betting man I would be looking beyond the next 2-3 weeks.
    [​IMG]
     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look beyond that
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks God.
     
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  32. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Is that GFS? THO no model @240 is to be trusted. Call it as i see it i dont use others forecasts.
     
    #32 ColdFronts, Aug 2, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2016
  33. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    We all saw how quickly the models flipped late last week.
    I wouldn't give up hope on this date range just yet. IMO
     
    #33 loweee, Aug 2, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2016
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  34. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is now
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    My understanding is it's from numerous agencies, much like an ensemble.

    That said, I completely agree. My point is really relating to not much on the horizon EC/GFS/AXS... or otherwise. At least not much picked up by the models yet. No alignment whatsoever.
     
  36. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Dont understand Is now.

    I dont have any faith in the Mancini model the whole prog is being scraped and replaced.
     
  37. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    It's only GFS, but, it's look rather pinappleish dropping down from the north on the 13th. :(

    [​IMG]
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    So you don't like the Tropopause Theta. I beg to differ as it shows where the fronts are around the Antarctic. This information and SAM or AAO provides a guide to long range forecasters like me. Then you have to apply all the other factors. It is hard to predict long term storms and even harder to predict long term snow.
     
  39. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Yep proves one thing!
     
  40. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Strong Cold front. BTW jelly trump is a D-HEAD.

    [​IMG]
     
    #40 ColdFronts, Aug 2, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2016
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z going for 10AUG:
    • +1012hPa for mainland alps
    • 70km/h winds (@850hPa)
    • Central pressure (961hPa) in the mid-50S (!)
    • FL of ~2000m
    • 192hrs out...
    ...Sorry, it's hardly a "strong front" for SE Aus mainland.
     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Doesn't look awfully cold or strong. The Central Pressure is too far away.
    BTW I hate Trump mate, Go to the Bear Pit if you want to talk politics.
     
  43. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This punter feels it's peaking too early Tuesday over the Bight for now.
    Now back to my day job ;)
     
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  44. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC markedly different this morning

    I'm starting to fear a merry-go-round like the last period.

    Looks like starting with a day of considerable clear stuff, but after that....
     
  45. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowatch likes it this morning for 14th - 16th.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still not seeing much for 10-14th.
     
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks. At least I dont need to bother checking long range GFS this morning.
     
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  48. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL I checked it. It likes.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mmmmm wwwwesterlies

    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    okay for some.... not so much for others.
     
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