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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2016.
has done with nearly every system this year.
A couple have.
But this coming node is not even good for vic surf. The last few have been very well aligned fetch wise. WSW etc. But alas this is a snow forum, and this system looks pretty meh for that too.
EC still fairly consistent with a 20-30cm system for the 10-11th.
GFS all over the place still. It's liking the 13th-14th at the moment, but that will change with the next run.
I still think it's the days after this time period that hold the most promise, but that's just a hunch really
Thanks for the link driftwood
Yep I like the 10th and 11th too.
Stable high proged for the 14th. I like.
This is my go to page as a quick reference..
Actually i said it would not snow on the Monday and yeah it did.
Temps in the eastern highlands, over that period, lower considerably as per EC as others have said maybe a v/good dump. note to this cold at 2m suggests a strong cold front.
R/Wave also modeled to be over the SE of the continent in the time period.
00Z GFS starting to look a bit like EC for the 10/11th
And it certainly "out there" 14th
I think that will certainly change.
It has been known to correlate with some of the alpines best snow depths providing the CFS verify.
NAVGEM looks cold for 10th, but suggests the bulk of the precipitation is on the 9th Afternoon
Looks really cold when the front hits but a bit of prefrontal in there. Only NAVGEM though.
Up to 60cm and if EC is right, we could be in for some low level snow IMO
Most Charts are Looking like Low Level Snow in parts of NSW and VIC. I am guessing 60cm given the information we have. Looking Blizzard like too. Wait for CFS for hopefully great news
Looking much better on EC than previous runs.
I certainly don't see any low level snow or falls of that magnitude (60cm?!).
EC not on board with the 13/14th, GFS clutching straws there.
I'm inclined to agree with you.
Every year since 2009 I've been at Perisher just before the season's best. We go home on the 17th, so I can confidently predict that the best of this season will be between the 17th and the end of August.
00z ECMWF Full-Res [Tco1279]
13-14 bigger cold pool!!!
This thread needs to be chopped to the 12th and another started for 12-18th as it looks like completely different systems (spag sure about that much) imo
We arrive on the 19 August... It will be great!~ Its great now..
This is the peak of the season as others had said. Whatever we get in the next two systems will decide whether we get a 1.75m Season or a 2.25m Season
BOM has upgraded the juice this morning with a nice tropical feed. Temps warm up a tad as a result. Uppers still look okay.
Touch wood with respect to chart above.
GFS calling the pre-frontal as snow up high, with 546 line crossing the Mts at the same time as moisture.
Way too early for this chart, however, GFS is in favour of some cold air advection @ 500hpa at the time. Fingers crossed.
10/11 looking a bit flat today IMO
14/15 looking better though
#underwhelmed with this morning runs.
If yes/no was accurate, we would have a 3-4m base by now
Access G really has a nice big fetch too.
Looking really good tonight on AC G
I Can only remember one 3 m base and that was in 1992. Were on the way that for sure but maybe not all the way, but
^^^thats this morns 12Zrun. The 00z is better imo (and has duration)
Friday on the BOM movie certainly is interesting, long narrow high
GFS is GFS suggesting a prefrontal event and four fronts in eight days. But it doesn't look like the temps are that promising IMO.
EC better than GFS for for 10th but no cold air for the fronts after that.
Overall, I am starting to think of more rain than snow. Happy to be proven wrong though.
I did not see those ones. I remember first trip to Thredbo in Sept 1992. The base has never been close to it since.
nah it will be sweet.
Janes forecast on Friday was for up to 10mil of prefrontal followed by 10-20cm of the good stuff. Yesterday appeared to have a boost in moisture with temps also warming. Some charts last night suggested more warming before the 10th so it may be difficult to prove you wrong. I can see why others were off this system from the start and yesterday, IMO, had a best case scenario vibe to it. The low entering the bight needs to push up a lot of cold air over the next 48 hrs.
The Moisture is definitely there but the temps is what we need to line up now IMO
GFS Snow. 15-20 Vic 10-15 NSW imo
This period is really not exciting me that much IMO, still looks pretty flat and perhaps peaking too early on EC then sliding.....
I think a small amount of pre frontal rain Tuesday night tending to snow Wed morning. Then a more substantial system on Wed night with about 20 cm max before clearing Thursday.
Mainly NW Winds on 10th- That can't be good for Buller
IMO looking like 10-20mm prefrontal (could be snow above 1900m) starting late on the 9th before turning to snow mid morning on the 10th.
Looks good for 20-30cm.
Winds are westerly on 10th- Good for everywhere but Buller. Also Baw Baw and Selwyn look like they will get r**n. NSW looks like 20-30, VIC looks like 10-20cm, Buller and BB looks like 50-70mm of sleet/rain IMO. Hoping the wind will change a bit.
Maybe even before mid-morning CC? GFS 00Z has resort snow possibly as early as 3-4am. There's some instability/shear in there around that time also. Not too much to squabble over anyway I guess, with the bulk of the snow arriving Wednesday night.
Yes, certainly possible