Predictions August 10th - 15th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2016.

  1. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I agree, all year the pre frontal temps seem to be colder then that forecast. Hope so again.
     
  2. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Agree, you can compare and check on Snowy Hydro, website, it gives max base. It is always an estimate for the resorts.
     
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  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I think the prefrontal will deliver some good snow up high too.

    Friday looks super good for the Alpine if we can get some good snowfalls Tuesday to Thursday.

    Not sure what the fuss is about on the 14th. Can't really see much there.

    Charts posted below are for clearing conditions.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #153 7wombathead, Aug 7, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2016
  4. MickM

    MickM Dedicated Member
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    Westerlies are far worse
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    You posted this on Friday:
    GFS was the only model pitching for the 14th. EC wasn't really into it much at all. It's dead in the water as you say...
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Prefrontal Tues 1000hrs - Wed 1000hrs.
    Maybe 4-5 hours of resort snow in there though.
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    It looks tasty on access r.
     
  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Quick check 850's I'm in Wednday morn.
    4 day rule.
    Can I # again just for fun or get pulled up again ?
     
  9. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    GFS starting to show some love (not crazy, looks normal for once). Good snow this Wed and a follow up this Friday. The weekend should be great.

    GEM is not that far removed from GFS. Looks the goods for 40cm this week.
     
    #159 1st_King_of_QBN, Aug 8, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2016
  10. summit_32

    summit_32 Active Member

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    Really 40cm? Are you talking Vic or NSW resorts?
     
  11. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Both. 20-25cm the 1st front on Wed with a follow-up of 15-20cm on Friday. I like the look of this week and I like the look of the Sat Pic

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    It won't be Snowageden. Just a few normal winter fronts.
     
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  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I am not that confident about the second front based on Access G
     
  14. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    I was concerned by the pre-frontal rain totals outweighting the snow yesterday but I like Access R this morning. I'm in for 25cm +/-10 gain.
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks like a good normal system for this time of year IMO
     
  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Yep
     
  17. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    What are thoughts on what Baw Baw may receive form this system , we certainly need it :cheers:
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Not very much. Most of the falls will be with the winds coming from the North, NW, so Baw Baw will be in rain shadow.
    IMO
     
  19. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    I feel this will be a nice 25-30cm for the majors. 20 for Buller. Not much for Baw Baw.

    Nice timing for my arrival Friday
     
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  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Less for Buller as I just saw a westerly wind on GFS and EC. Maybe 15cm for Buller IMO
     
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  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I saw the BB cams, not pretty. IMO Baw Baw will get a soak of rain and maybe a light dusting up to 5cm on Wednesday Night. Snow Quality if it falls is guaranteed to be wet.
     
  22. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman Dedicated Member

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    bens season keeps rolling on 2-3cm last night , this system should be good for us . ,maybe a bit of prefrontal ra#n early on but defiantly should top things up by 10-15cm hopefully .
     
  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    15cm easy for Ben, Up to 30cm
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS For people in the Central, South West, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 11:39 am Monday, 8 August 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A cold front will enter southwestern Victoria on Tuesday evening with northerly winds expected to strenghten ahead of it on Tuesday.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 to 100 km/h are likely to develop on Tuesday over parts of the Wimmera, Southwest, Central and North Central districts. Elevated areas are most at risk. The risk of damaging winds is expected to extend to Alpine areas of West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and the Northeast district during Tuesday evening with peak gusts reaching 110 km/h.

    Locations most at risk include Hamilton, Colac, Kyneton, Ballarat, Bacchus Marsh, Mansfield, Corryong and all Alpine resorts.
     
    #175 Claude Cat, Aug 8, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2016
  26. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    My predictions for the event ending Thursday morning is about 20cm of snow for the Main Range.
     
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  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Need a bit of rain to make this stick with all that wind.
    I predict only a few places on the Main Range above 1900 m will hold it at the moment, with majority of the snow being blown away as usual.

    But I predict that the places that hold it will be epic if you can bloody see.

    Its been a season of NW to W dumps.
     
  28. Tanuki

    Tanuki Dedicated Member
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    Coo-ee, gone quiet in here. I'm chancing it based on probability of good conditions wed and Thurs. Hotham here I come. Strangle Mountain Watch is calling for more snow at Buller than any of the pther majors.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Locked and loaded. 20-25cm for the majors. IMO
    [​IMG]
     
  30. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Good to see you referring again to AXS as a resource btw or you just illustrating POW ?.
    I do check it for 850's etc.
    both R & G
     
  31. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    I was thinking the same on this mornings run, but toned it back to 20cm. On this afternoon's I'd be confident on 20-25cm. Here's hoping!
     
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  32. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Tiny bit of prefrontal clear stuff followed by 15-20 cm of snow above 1700m for the NSW resorts IMO.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I generally always like AXSR >72 hours out. Precip and temps tend to be right on the money IMO. Beyond 72 hours I find it a bit rogue/GFS-like IMO.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, def some pre frontal in there. It's no deal breaker but rain tomorrow/tomorrow night will be inevitable.
     
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  35. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I reckon 30-40mm of Prefrontal for VIC resorts, 15-25cm in Snow for VIC, not looking bad IMO
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'm not seeing anywhere near that prefrontal TBH.
    15-20mm - at below 1900m; could well be snow above.

    IMO
     
  37. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    I'm the same. Not much pre-frontal rain for me at all. Much greater percentage snow at height.
     
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  38. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    5mm of pre before 20 - 25 cm snow , nice little top up I reckon. Guess I just dont see much pre this time round.
     
  39. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    ACCESS-R only runs to 72 hours.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    To those with limited access, yes. Was more meaning I don't tend to consider AXS much beyond 72 hours.
     
    #190 POW_hungry, Aug 8, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2016
  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    5-10mm of Prefrontal followed by 10-20cm IMO
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM Vic & NSW forecast this morning has them generally going for ~15-25cm
     
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  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Chunky. There must be a bit of prefrontal Thredbo AWS 3+ C

    [​IMG]
     
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Over the two days I expect a lot more than 20 cm .
     
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  45. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Agree.
    Charts suggesting 30cm+

    25-30cm for me with about 5-10mm prefrontal. 20-25cm net gain
     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    That 5-10mm is gonna be pretty important in the backcountry. Some pretty serious surface hoar building up on the southern aspects. Want that gone before the fresh arrives.
     
  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Was thinking exactly the same.
    It's pretty solid what I've seen and heard.( I've not observed the hoar but good to know)
    It's prolly a good thing to help the bonding of the new layer.
     
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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    There could be up to 30cm IMO
     
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  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    It was noticeable out on McKay on Sunday. Southern aspect, ~1800m, ~35+deg, made for carvable conditions but not the sort of thing you want buried under a foot of fresh.
     
  50. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    ACCESS-R is a limited area model nested inside ACCESS-G (the global model). Lateral boundary conditions for ACCESS-R are generated out to 72 hours and no more.

    If you are looking at an ACCESS forecast with lead time greater than 72 hours you are looking at ACCESS-G.
     
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