same call was made out spoin/nelse way over the weekend. pretty fierce on most leeward/protected slopes.
Hopecast for 19th has nice shape at the moment , tho rather warm before it but that's for another thread.
View the current warnings for Victoria Forecast issued at 5:40 am EST on Tuesday 9 August 2016. Weather Situation A large high pressure system southeast of Tasmania extends a ridge northwards to the New South Wales coast and will continue to drift eastwards across the Tasman Sea during Tuesday. A strong cold front will enter western Victoria Tuesday afternoon, crossing to eastern areas by Wednesday morning and will be followed by a cold unstable westerly airstream on Wednesday. A high pressure system will move over South Australia late Wednesday then over New South Wales on Thursday. http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/northeast.shtml TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS For people in the Central, South West, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts. Issued at 10:56 am Tuesday, 9 August 2016. WEATHER SITUATION: Strong northerly winds are expected on Tuesday ahead of a cold front which will enter western Victoria during the afternoon and cross the State overnight. DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 to 100 km/h are forecast on Tuesday over parts of the Wimmera, Southwest, Central and North Central districts. Elevated areas are most at risk. The risk of damaging winds is expected to contract to Alpine areas of West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and the Northeast district during Tuesday evening with peak gusts reaching 110 km/h. Locations most at risk include Hamilton, Colac, Kyneton, Ballarat, Bacchus Marsh, Mansfield, Corryong and all Alpine resorts. Highest wind gusts recorded to 10am Tuesday include: 104 km/h at Mount William at 9:19am 89 km/h at Melbourne Airport at 5:41am The State Emergency Service advises that people should: * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees; * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony; * Keep clear of fallen power lines;
Going to be windy in the NSW Snowies IDN20032 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology New South Wales TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS For people in parts of the South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts. Issued at 9:51 am Tuesday, 9 August 2016. SEVERE WIND NSW ALPS TUESDAY SYNOPTIC SITUATION: Strengthening northwest winds Tuesday evening ahead of a cold front expected to move through the area Wednesday afternoon. DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 65 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are expected in alpine areas above 1200 metres from Tuesday evening through to Wednesday morning. Winds averaging 80 km/h with peak gusts exceeding 120 km/h are possible on peaks above 1900 metres. * Winds are expected to ease during Wednesday. Locations which may be affected include Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass, Thredbo, Cabramurra, Selwyn and Adaminaby.
haha. I see you've omitted the model that quote was posted with (a fkn week ago!)... Nice way to take it out of context.
Not sure what resort you are referring to, but for Hotham, the 4.30pm update is suggesting 15/40mm for Wed vs 5.30am which was 10/30mm?
I reckon you can probably rob peter to pay paul here, so to speak. The 24hr AXSR has predominately rain progged, but think realistically it's got about 3-4 hours of snow in it until it's expiry at 1000hrs. IMO snow for the resorts proper from 6am tomorrow.
So far this system has delivered nothing but rain (NSW). What do people think will happen tonight and into tomorrow? Not a prediction I know but it's as quiet as in here.
Cold air still on the way for NSW. Check the satellite. Also prolly been some chat in the Obs thread from the Vicco crew on temps down there way.
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS For people in the South West and parts of the Central, East Gippsland, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts. Issued at 10:47 am Wednesday, 10 August 2016. WEATHER SITUATION: Strong north to northwesterly winds are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon over southwest Victoria with the passage of a cold front, reaching the Melbourne area this evening and the east tonight. Winds averaging 50 to 60 km/h with DAMAGING peak gusts of around 90 km/h are forecast to develop during Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Southwest, Wimmera, Central, West and South Gippsland districts, and over Alpine parts of the Northeast and Gippsland districts tonight. Strongest wind gusts will most likely be associated with heavy showers or thunderstorms with coastal areas most at risk. Severe weather is no longer occurring in the North Central district and the warning for this district is CANCELLED.
GFS 00z has precip downgraded for tonight (inline with AXS yesterday). 5-10cm for the majors now IMO. All cleared out by tomorrow daybreak. We've certainly been short changed by the models this time around...
Another downgrade this arvo on AXS, gives proof you can't trust a model even in the dying hours. From this (published Monday): To this, published this arvo: We'll be lucky to get 5-8cms here tonight.
What a difference a 1000klm south makes. Time to start shipping all mainland landfill to Tassy and dumping it dead centre. Build it up to 3000m and we are sorted. Tassy economy fixed. Back on topic
Agree with @POW_hungry and any resort to score 10cm overnight will be doing well. 5cm looks the likely outcome IMO
