Predictions August 17th-20th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Warm tropical moisture inflow, warm 850 hPa's, warm 500 hPa uppers. IMO
    What's not to like? ;)
     
  2. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag not disastrous IMO.

    As said in other thread, yr.no looks good (half mtr top of hotham, 30cm above 1600 maybe)

    I'm looking for positives....
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    With the warm uppers, I think 1800m will be closer to the mark. IMO
    Still fairly fluid, models are far from settled on this. GFS looked much, much worse yesterday.
     
  4. Time

    Time Hard Yards

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    So... thoughts on weather for the Selwyn and jagungle area between the 16th and 20th?

    1500-2000m conditions?
     
  5. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Straw-clutching IMO. A couple of little bumps there; emphasis on little:

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    Next decent snow system chance is after the 26th (IMOOCC™). At least we're going to see some rain up here this week; been seriously dry. Posted a few thoughts on trans-Tasman rivalry yesterday.
     
  6. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Outlook:
    We have an upper level trough bringing energy to a surface trough, and a lot of tropical moisture coming in from the northeast. This all combines to bring widespread rain to Australia.

    The surface trough should develop into a low pressure system over western New South Wales on the weekend. It will depend on where this low moves as to where the precipitation will fall. If it moves eastwards across central NSW, then it would only be light precipitation for alpine areas. If it tracks across southern NSW, then it will be heavy precipitation for alpine areas.

    Is there enough cold air to make it snow? The system is very cold right now, and continues to have a link to polar air until mid-week. Then it has several days with only a tropical feed. By the time it reaches us, it will have warmed up significantly. BUT, cold fronts will be moving past (to our south) and there is the potential for an injection of polar air from one of these.

    So, this is certainly one to watch, as it has the potential for a lot of precipitation - and the chance that will be cold enough for heavy snow.
     
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  7. Time

    Time Hard Yards

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    or miserable wet rain.....
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 UTC (GFS) has it mostly to the east of the alps, which is not a bad thing IMO

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  9. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strange setup for August
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM forecast (Buller)

    Sunday 17 August
    Summary
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    Min -2
    Max 2
    Rain at times.
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of rain. Winds northeasterly 25 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

    Monday 18 August
    Summary
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    Min -1
    Max 1
    Rainfall at times. Windy.
    Cloudy. High chance of rainfall. Winds southerly 35 to 50 km/h increasing to 45 to 55 km/h during the morning.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perisher ...

    Sunday 17 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 6
    Rain or snow.
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High chance of rain or snow. Light winds.
     
  12. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    no swearing please
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

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    I'm still not liking EC to be honest.
     
  14. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Less moisture, more cold

    This one's gonna flip flop for days IMO.
     
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  15. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    following thread. invested interest. will be at falls these dates
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yr.no is suggesting that EC thinks the moisture is more to the east as well IMO
     
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  17. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like Chondro, following with great interest as booked at FC next week. I don't like the Vic Bom forecast posted above, but CC's charts look more hopeful.
     
  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, rarely do we get a tropical drifter from the NE. Will likely slide SE and out of harms way imo.
    But unlikely to even look like todays scenario anyway
     
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  19. travelislife

    travelislife One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hopefully it slides away! Up at Buller Friday through Sunday!
     
  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have to say I don't share any optimism with Jane as to the temps/potential of this.
    A good result would be a 'miss' imo.
    (and a better one snow of course)
     
  21. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC/yr.no still quite cold on this mornings run
     
  22. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Looking ugly...
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO not pretty

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    Warm and wet.
     
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    very. :(
     
  25. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    That doesn't look good, what's following it? Is that a cold front below Perth that may repair some of the damage that looks like being the case?
     
  26. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Looking like a pineapple express from the North East. It must be said this season hasn't had too many of these.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nope.

    IMO
     
  28. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    What time is the clear snow expected to arrive? Is Saturday day time looking ok on the slopes at this stage?
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO on the whole. Moisture is predicted to arrive Saturday afternoon. It will be earlier in the north and later in the south as it currently stands.
     
  30. Time

    Time Hard Yards

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    But probably Rain not Snow?
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's what "clear" snow is.
     
  32. Time

    Time Hard Yards

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    Some days i'm are than others it seems....
     
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  33. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    yeah wow, Sunday looks bad. Hopefully it's not followed by the hair dryer.

    It's times like this my belief is reinforced that we get early seasons or late seasons (for fresh snow), not full seasons.
     
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  34. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    I'm open to correction but potentially (hopeful…….) I see snow arriving Sunday and lowing to 1400m, but as the temps lower so does the moisture. GFS Mon 18GMT +132
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Could be a chance at 2000m, perhaps 1800m at a push. 850hPa temps not that cold. 500hhPa temps aren't that cold either.
    Perhaps later Sunday afternoon ..
    IMO
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Smitty you wouldnt happen to be in or around the snowfields at this time would you?
     
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  37. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Fat Lady is approaching the podium.. Thankfully the podium has been built pretty tall and she has short stubby legs..but she is on her way.
     
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  38. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Putting on my whitewater kayaking helmet, it's not the most excitement inducing rain event. (So I'm not tooo worried for the snow cover)

    GFS has 25mm for Barrington Tops. Not enough. Meteye has plenty for the Southern Highlands on sunday (25mm will be too little but there's possibly more) so I'll be keeping an eye on the Shoalhaven levels. Not enough rain for the Kangaroo or Nepean to flow.

    Norther KNP looks good. I'd say good flows for the Eucumbene, Gooderadigbee and Goobaragandra rivers early next week, then 'Bidge and Shoalhaven midweek and maybe into next weekend. Kayak Canberra will be happy, but not frothing. Shame the peak flows will hit midweek.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looks worse on the 00 UTC run.

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  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    on the upside some late winter **** will be most welcome in many of the areas this will effect.
     
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  41. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That doesn't look good at all. That'll teach me not to get carried away and book 4 weeks in advance :doh:
     
  42. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    Haha I leave Vic on Sun, so no smitty effect on this system. Plus bung knee means no boarding anyway :(
     
  43. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    WZ has snow above 1500-1700 during the later part of the period.. 14-30cm..
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like it's depending upon a wandering cold pool (00 run has a small -25C 500hPa pool). Good luck with that.
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC tonight.

    [​IMG]
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It can smell you man, your remnants will be there, and that's enough to bring on a pineapple. I therefore blame you for this. No need for anyone to continue forecasting.
     
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  47. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I want to deny the models & probability of several days of damage. May Jane 's optimism of a cold feed remain, may Frog's apparent downgrade on Snowatch from a mega rain event a few days ago to a few showers & chance of snow today continue; & may the NSW BOM forecast of a chance of snow above 1700 see a lowering of the snow level, and snow showers when forecast.
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO this afternoon's EC run shows less moisture than yesterday.
     
    #48 Claude Cat, Aug 12, 2014
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2014
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  49. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Looks to be 15-25 mm over 48 hours from Saturday arvo IMO. Temps at 1700m may average around 3c so not a disaster IMO.
     
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  50. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is better news but pretty ordinary for skiing in. Skiing in the rain is slightly preferable to not skiing at all but only just.
     
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