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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 11, 2014.
Warm tropical moisture inflow, warm 850 hPa's, warm 500 hPa uppers. IMO
What's not to like?
Spag not disastrous IMO.
As said in other thread, yr.no looks good (half mtr top of hotham, 30cm above 1600 maybe)
I'm looking for positives....
With the warm uppers, I think 1800m will be closer to the mark. IMO
Still fairly fluid, models are far from settled on this. GFS looked much, much worse yesterday.
So... thoughts on weather for the Selwyn and jagungle area between the 16th and 20th?
Straw-clutching IMO. A couple of little bumps there; emphasis on little:
Next decent snow system chance is after the 26th (IMOOCC™). At least we're going to see some rain up here this week; been seriously dry. Posted a few thoughts on trans-Tasman rivalry yesterday.
We have an upper level trough bringing energy to a surface trough, and a lot of tropical moisture coming in from the northeast. This all combines to bring widespread rain to Australia.
The surface trough should develop into a low pressure system over western New South Wales on the weekend. It will depend on where this low moves as to where the precipitation will fall. If it moves eastwards across central NSW, then it would only be light precipitation for alpine areas. If it tracks across southern NSW, then it will be heavy precipitation for alpine areas.
Is there enough cold air to make it snow? The system is very cold right now, and continues to have a link to polar air until mid-week. Then it has several days with only a tropical feed. By the time it reaches us, it will have warmed up significantly. BUT, cold fronts will be moving past (to our south) and there is the potential for an injection of polar air from one of these.
So, this is certainly one to watch, as it has the potential for a lot of precipitation - and the chance that will be cold enough for heavy snow.
or miserable wet rain.....
00 UTC (GFS) has it mostly to the east of the alps, which is not a bad thing IMO
Strange setup for August
Vic BOM forecast (Buller)
Sunday 17 August
Rain at times.
Partly cloudy. Medium chance of rain. Winds northeasterly 25 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.
Monday 18 August
Rainfall at times. Windy.
Cloudy. High chance of rainfall. Winds southerly 35 to 50 km/h increasing to 45 to 55 km/h during the morning.
Sunday 17 August
Rain or snow.
Alpine Area area
Cloudy. High chance of rain or snow. Light winds.
no swearing please
I'm still not liking EC to be honest.
Less moisture, more cold
This one's gonna flip flop for days IMO.
following thread. invested interest. will be at falls these dates
yr.no is suggesting that EC thinks the moisture is more to the east as well IMO
Like Chondro, following with great interest as booked at FC next week. I don't like the Vic Bom forecast posted above, but CC's charts look more hopeful.
Yeah, rarely do we get a tropical drifter from the NE. Will likely slide SE and out of harms way imo.
But unlikely to even look like todays scenario anyway
Hopefully it slides away! Up at Buller Friday through Sunday!
I have to say I don't share any optimism with Jane as to the temps/potential of this.
A good result would be a 'miss' imo.
(and a better one snow of course)
EC/yr.no still quite cold on this mornings run
IMO not pretty
Warm and wet.
That doesn't look good, what's following it? Is that a cold front below Perth that may repair some of the damage that looks like being the case?
Looking like a pineapple express from the North East. It must be said this season hasn't had too many of these.
What time is the clear snow expected to arrive? Is Saturday day time looking ok on the slopes at this stage?
IMO on the whole. Moisture is predicted to arrive Saturday afternoon. It will be earlier in the north and later in the south as it currently stands.
But probably Rain not Snow?
That's what "clear" snow is.
Some days i'm are than others it seems....
yeah wow, Sunday looks bad. Hopefully it's not followed by the hair dryer.
It's times like this my belief is reinforced that we get early seasons or late seasons (for fresh snow), not full seasons.
I'm open to correction but potentially (hopeful…….) I see snow arriving Sunday and lowing to 1400m, but as the temps lower so does the moisture. GFS Mon 18GMT +132
Could be a chance at 2000m, perhaps 1800m at a push. 850hPa temps not that cold. 500hhPa temps aren't that cold either.
Perhaps later Sunday afternoon ..
Smitty you wouldnt happen to be in or around the snowfields at this time would you?
The Fat Lady is approaching the podium.. Thankfully the podium has been built pretty tall and she has short stubby legs..but she is on her way.
Putting on my whitewater kayaking helmet, it's not the most excitement inducing rain event. (So I'm not tooo worried for the snow cover)
GFS has 25mm for Barrington Tops. Not enough. Meteye has plenty for the Southern Highlands on sunday (25mm will be too little but there's possibly more) so I'll be keeping an eye on the Shoalhaven levels. Not enough rain for the Kangaroo or Nepean to flow.
Norther KNP looks good. I'd say good flows for the Eucumbene, Gooderadigbee and Goobaragandra rivers early next week, then 'Bidge and Shoalhaven midweek and maybe into next weekend. Kayak Canberra will be happy, but not frothing. Shame the peak flows will hit midweek.
IMO looks worse on the 00 UTC run.
on the upside some late winter **** will be most welcome in many of the areas this will effect.
That doesn't look good at all. That'll teach me not to get carried away and book 4 weeks in advance
Haha I leave Vic on Sun, so no smitty effect on this system. Plus bung knee means no boarding anyway
WZ has snow above 1500-1700 during the later part of the period.. 14-30cm..
Looks like it's depending upon a wandering cold pool (00 run has a small -25C 500hPa pool). Good luck with that.
It can smell you man, your remnants will be there, and that's enough to bring on a pineapple. I therefore blame you for this. No need for anyone to continue forecasting.
I want to deny the models & probability of several days of damage. May Jane 's optimism of a cold feed remain, may Frog's apparent downgrade on Snowatch from a mega rain event a few days ago to a few showers & chance of snow today continue; & may the NSW BOM forecast of a chance of snow above 1700 see a lowering of the snow level, and snow showers when forecast.
IMO this afternoon's EC run shows less moisture than yesterday.
Looks to be 15-25 mm over 48 hours from Saturday arvo IMO. Temps at 1700m may average around 3c so not a disaster IMO.
That is better news but pretty ordinary for skiing in. Skiing in the rain is slightly preferable to not skiing at all but only just.