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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 11, 2014.
Finally a bit of love
EC suggesting the bulk of the moisture comes through on the 19th. Temps stil on the warm side. IMO
And axs saying bulk to miss am run.
Lets hope so
GFS is a massive bullseye
Indeed. But gfs often has everything 500km further west than what eventually transpires.
More worrying is the CC model.
(EC=CC =Claude Cat model.
Think Gf<rog>S style.
Term needs traction)
IMO I'm less worried about the weekend now, but early next week seems problematic.
Sunday is very much in play
Monday, lets throw in a bombing ECL in to the mix
Wandering cold pool, where art thou?
Perhaps getting cold enough late Monday for some interest IMO
Freezing level pretty much above 2000m for the whole event according to GFS.
Where is Donza on this.
I think their has not been an ECL snow event for a while.
Its all a bit hard to believe, but I am optimistic that something will be delivered, Surf, Rain, Snot, and snow from the SE
That's a show stopper for Baw Baw right there IMO
BoM currently quite optimistic with snow down to 1500m. No good for Baw Baw but that would at least allow the other resorts to survive.
Not sure where they are getting that figure to be honest.
Buying tickets to NZ
Yup. The Aus season was banging, and NZ was hurting. The pendulum has swung the other way in recent days, however!
Stay on topic.
Buller might do ok (least rain) by virtue of it being the most in the SE rain shadow
But still 7wks left in the season so plenty of time.
Just not cold enough imo
Most of eastern Australian regions that have been suffering drought will receive heavy rain by this time next week with flooding most likely in some areas.
Nervous time for alpine areas as it looks like it will not be cold enough for snow. Best scenario in my opinion is majority of moisture drifts east.
There is still time for things to change and snow is still in very good condition at the moment.
That synoptic is gross. There's another cutoff low following that also looks warm
Inland = (provided it doesn't flood, which would = as well).
00UTC GFS gives hope that Monday and Tuesday could provide a little bit of love after the weekend's rain IMO
NSW could pick-up a bit of snow out of that. IMO
Even so, the cold pool is in the wrong place IMO
Until late Monday / early Tuesday
EC and GFS starting to line-up for this event.
So what are the chances that the ecl will bring up air cold enough for snow after some initial r***? It doesn't look to be coming from far enough South, to my inexpert eye. Where is this "wandering cold pool" which has been mentioned earlier?
Have a look at the 500hPa charts above. The cold pool starts over eastern SA and moves almost due north to west/central NSW.
IMO it's possible we will see some snow late Monday if there still enough moisture left in the system. The trouble with this system is that the moisture is most closely associated with warm uppers. As soon as it cools it dries.
NSW BOM are saying possible snow above 1600m Sat arvo / evening and snow above 1600m on Sunday.
Fingers, toes and everything else crossed that they are on the money.
Do the experts on here think Saturday is still looking dry until later on?
Somewhat Buller shadow.
Bye bye Baw Baw
That will make a lot of parched folk happy..
IMO I don't see much happening on Saturday.
EC suggests even Sunday may not be too bad. Currently it's showing Monday as the wet day.
We are lucky this is coming from the back of a cold snap. IMO moisture above 1700m will be negligible. But below could be nasty IMO
Net gain of 6-12cm for NSW by late Monday.
BOM is a little more optimistic for southern Vic resorts. Baw Baw - Rain on Sunday, but snow on Mon & Tues, Buller - snow Sun through Wed, but rain for LM on Sunday and showers on Mon & Tuesday
The same people at bom who predict 'a few snowshowers' for mega blizzard snowmagedon events....
That said I see rain only for LM too.
Important to remember most of the BOM forecasts are automated these days. If their word producing forecast system sees 1 flake of snow at say 1600m in the models it spits out a snow forecast.....even though it will rain 99% of the day. On the latest models the freezing level will be close to 2000m on Sunday and Monday.
Very interesting track south of cold pool on GFS across the weekend. Optimistic I think but it's there
EC run from this morning follows the trend from yesterday for most of the rain being Monday.
Don't like .
Going by that rainfall map Vic resorts could get 75mm plus r***.
Gippsland which has been relatively dry will get flooding.
It's the fairly typical ecl scenario for Gippsland once it hits the Tasman.
How much depends on which scenario. The axs or the gfs and e(c)c
NSW BOM predicting snow for Perisher with a Max of 5! That's some call!
I predict that I will find out how waterproof my tent is over the weekend.