Predictions August 17th-20th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Finally a bit of love

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No thanks.....
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC suggesting the bulk of the moisture comes through on the 19th. Temps stil on the warm side. IMO
     
  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And axs saying bulk to miss am run.
     
  5. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    Lets hope so
     
  6. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    GFS is a massive bullseye
     
  7. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Indeed. But gfs often has everything 500km further west than what eventually transpires.
    More worrying is the CC model.

    (EC=CC =Claude Cat model.
    Loves it.
    Think Gf<rog>S style.
    Term needs traction)
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    mmmmmmmmmmmm

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC

    Sunday
    [​IMG]
    Monday
    [​IMG]
    Tuesday
    [​IMG]

    IMO I'm less worried about the weekend now, but early next week seems problematic.
     
  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sunday is very much in play
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Monday, lets throw in a bombing ECL in to the mix

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wandering cold pool, where art thou?

    [​IMG]

    Perhaps getting cold enough late Monday for some interest IMO
    Freezing level pretty much above 2000m for the whole event according to GFS.
     
    #61 Claude Cat, Aug 13, 2014
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2014
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Where is Donza on this.

    I think their has not been an ECL snow event for a while.

    Its all a bit hard to believe, but I am optimistic that something will be delivered, Surf, Rain, Snot, and snow from the SE
     
  13. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    That's a show stopper for Baw Baw right there IMO :(
     
  14. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    BoM currently quite optimistic with snow down to 1500m. No good for Baw Baw but that would at least allow the other resorts to survive.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not sure where they are getting that figure to be honest.
     
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  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buying tickets to NZ
     
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  17. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup. The Aus season was banging, and NZ was hurting. The pendulum has swung the other way in recent days, however!
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  19. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller might do ok (least rain) by virtue of it being the most in the SE rain shadow
     
  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    But still 7wks left in the season so plenty of time.
     
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just not cold enough imo
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Most of eastern Australian regions that have been suffering drought will receive heavy rain by this time next week with flooding most likely in some areas.
    Nervous time for alpine areas as it looks like it will not be cold enough for snow. Best scenario in my opinion is majority of moisture drifts east.
    There is still time for things to change and snow is still in very good condition at the moment.
     
  25. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    That synoptic is gross. There's another cutoff low following that also looks warm
     
  26. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mountains = :(
    Inland = :) (provided it doesn't flood, which would = :( as well).

    IMO
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00UTC GFS gives hope that Monday and Tuesday could provide a little bit of love after the weekend's rain IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    NSW could pick-up a bit of snow out of that. IMO
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Even so, the cold pool is in the wrong place IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Until late Monday / early Tuesday
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #78 Claude Cat, Aug 13, 2014
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2014
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC and GFS starting to line-up for this event.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  30. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So what are the chances that the ecl will bring up air cold enough for snow after some initial r***? It doesn't look to be coming from far enough South, to my inexpert eye. Where is this "wandering cold pool" which has been mentioned earlier?
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Have a look at the 500hPa charts above. The cold pool starts over eastern SA and moves almost due north to west/central NSW.
    IMO it's possible we will see some snow late Monday if there still enough moisture left in the system. The trouble with this system is that the moisture is most closely associated with warm uppers. As soon as it cools it dries.
     
  32. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM are saying possible snow above 1600m Sat arvo / evening and snow above 1600m on Sunday.

    Fingers, toes and everything else crossed that they are on the money.

    Do the experts on here think Saturday is still looking dry until later on?
     
  33. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Warm.
    Somewhat Buller shadow.
    Bye bye Baw Baw
     
  35. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That will make a lot of parched folk happy..
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I don't see much happening on Saturday.
    EC suggests even Sunday may not be too bad. Currently it's showing Monday as the wet day.
     
  37. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great, thanks
     
  38. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    We are lucky this is coming from the back of a cold snap. IMO moisture above 1700m will be negligible. But below could be nasty IMO
     
  39. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Net gain of 6-12cm for NSW by late Monday.
     
  40. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM is a little more optimistic for southern Vic resorts. Baw Baw - Rain on Sunday, but snow on Mon & Tues, Buller - snow Sun through Wed, but rain for LM on Sunday and showers on Mon & Tuesday :(
     
  41. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The same people at bom who predict 'a few snowshowers' for mega blizzard snowmagedon events....
    That said I see rain only for LM too.
     
  42. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Important to remember most of the BOM forecasts are automated these days. If their word producing forecast system sees 1 flake of snow at say 1600m in the models it spits out a snow forecast.....even though it will rain 99% of the day. On the latest models the freezing level will be close to 2000m on Sunday and Monday.
     
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  43. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Very interesting track south of cold pool on GFS across the weekend. Optimistic I think but it's there
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC run from this morning follows the trend from yesterday for most of the rain being Monday.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  46. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Don't like .
    Going by that rainfall map Vic resorts could get 75mm plus r***.
    Gippsland which has been relatively dry will get flooding.
     
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's the fairly typical ecl scenario for Gippsland once it hits the Tasman.
    How much depends on which scenario. The axs or the gfs and e(c)c
     
  49. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM predicting snow for Perisher with a Max of 5! That's some call!
     
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  50. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict that I will find out how waterproof my tent is over the weekend.