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Predictions August 17th-20th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not a whole lot of injection going on there.
     
  3. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Rain followed by snow, net result IMO.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Can't seem much snow below 1800m and even then, that will come right at the end after all the rain IMO
     
  5. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Welcome rain to the inners.
    Sorry resorts, it hasn't gotten any better.

    Such a strange August set up.
     
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  6. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Perspective from the opposing camp at Kayak Canberra (talking about which rivers will rise to a high level)

    A definite rain event IMO but not catastrophic. Looks like southern KNP could miss the worst of the moisture, northern KNP worst hit at the start, then Thredbo from the SE when the low moves past and sits on the east coast.
     
  7. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    I have a feeling this event may surprise, a bit of cold pool or injection luck could see 25cm plus at higher resorts later...IMO
     
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  8. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    It should be okay. What was interesting was the 14 cm increase at Spencer Creek today , suggesting 20cm Sunday and Monday earlier this week. Their would have been some nice power stashes. Just shows that sometimes you have to be in the mountains to pick the eyes out of the conditions.


    I don't think this will be epic back country conditions like the last 10 days. But the western faces on main range will like the snow/snot from the South East. Then any follow up system will be super fun.

    Surfing could be good down here on the far south Coast NSW
     
  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This has do be treated as a cutoff low with moisture in feed from north of tropic of Capricorn. Its hard to predict but the vibe feels okay.

    Wandering Cold pool produces snow at about 1700m Saturday to Tuesday. But the clearing conditions Wednesday will be be a bit wet snow. I think system will kill the lower parts of the mountain below 1500m and improve the higher parts above 1700. IMO.

    Welcome to the main range, where the best runs finish at 1600 m. This

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still don't like!
     
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Can't see anything but rain for Victorian resorts.
    IMO
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic bom still saying snow above 1600m.
     
  13. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM now going for rain Saturday & Sunday. Too warm & too wet IMO & ugly below 1650
     
  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I raise you 250-300
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This looks f-ing gross.
     
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  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AxsR has it affecting Vic a lot less this morning.
     
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  17. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Very little hope for anything but rain IMO
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ugly Mo Fo

    [​IMG]
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Why are BOM and WZ saying Snow above1600 Sunday on?
     
  21. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ugly, Ugly, Ugly. Time to pray to the snow gods. Kayaking sounds good. I accept your raise Plowking.
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got my boat back from the service shop yesterday, looks like i'll be using it on the weekends early than I thought this year.
     
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  23. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is shaping up to be a creek opener....
     
  24. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sad thing is I see nothing in the long range forecast to save August either.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's a tiny -25C cold pool at 500hPa that could produce a little snow for a brief period. IMO

    [​IMG]
    As you can see there is a sharp gradient between the warmer -20C atmosphere coming in from the east.
    [​IMG]
    Pretty much gone later Monday and the alps are under the warmer uppers.

    [​IMG]
    Even then the 850hPa temps are +5C :eek:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    So my opinion is that we might see a little snow above 1600m (probably more like 1800m) it won't be for very long and it will return to rain.
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    :eek:
     
  28. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    i predict myself spending more time at the pub than on slopes this weekend
    damnit what unfortunate booking luck
     
  29. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you have Gore-Tex and rubber gloves? I've often booked in advance and been rained on for a few days. Still had a good time. Nothing turns a sedate group lesson into an awesome flat-out balls-to-the-wall private with a top instructor than a bit of rain.
     
  30. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    That looks like it'll take the lower Snowy river to minor flood levels. The rivers in the SE will be pumping for a week.
     
  31. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Thanks CC, very informative. A very optimistic/misleading forecast it seems by them then..
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    park laps. will be soft.
     
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  33. cloudbase

    cloudbase Hard Yards

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    Will it still be skiable and lifts operating around 4th-12th September. Or is this a season finnisher?

    I booked a damn honeymoon at Falls :/
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well, you've got to remember the BOM forecast isn't just for snow lovers, so how we might paint it may not be how the general punter sees it.
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not a season finisher. IMO GFS is over the top in the forecast moisture levels. It usually is.
    It might make a bit of a dent, especially below 1500m, but there's a pretty solid base now, and it's frozen pretty solid.
     
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  36. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    I don't think GFS upper temps are reliable hereabouts CC (how much effort do they put into assimilating SH soundings?). ACCESS 850 hPa temps hover around 4°C throughout the event, but the 850 hPa level falls below 1400 m Sunday night as the cold pool passes. That would put the freezing level at maybe 1800 m or a bit higher depending on the saturation level. Coming from the other side, 700 hPa temps are around -4°C at about 2900 m, for a freezing level nearer 2100 m (wet lapse rate).

    (Time BOM added a freezing level plot to its ACCESS output. Can't be that hard guys ... maybe we should lobby.)


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I'm not a big fan of freezing level. 850 & 500 hPa temps are far more useful (so long as you know that those are not fixed to a certain altitude - vary with the pressure at the time).
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You can see the cold pool @ 500 hPa on AXS-R too

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    As you can see most (if not all the alps) are at -22C for that level.
     
  39. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    The potential of 100+ mm of clear moisture this weekend is a near season killer. Depending where the bullseye hits, it could be 175mm of clear moisture on some resorts.
     
  40. Sydlouise

    Sydlouise Addicted

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    When over the weekend do you think the rain will start (NSW resorts)?
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC (confirmed with yr.no) suggesting falls of 20-30mm IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps Saturday evening. IMO
     
  43. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    the trouble with XXXX onto a solid base is it sheets off, and erodes heavily where it concentrates, heavy scours and snow bank collapse into creeks and streams.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  45. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Thanks, was just about to post this pic:

    and "This track means that Victorian resorts should only see light precipitation (around 10 mm), while New South Wales resorts may see falls of 20 to 40 mm. There is the potential for this to be a lot higher, if the low comes closer."
     
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  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's the way I read it.
    And Buller might do best as far as less rain imo at least at the back end of the system.
     
  47. iwant2befree

    iwant2befree First Runs

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    When we say precipitation do we mean snow or yucky rain.... planing a snow shoeing / back country day to get out and get some fresh air...
     
  48. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Access R looks as if we may get as far as Sunday midday prior to clear snow (south Vic resorts) with GFS maybe a little earlier. IM (relatively uneducated) O . Is that my invested interest in play or can someone offer other thoughts?
     
  49. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Assimilation is done automatically. BoM put all the surface/upper-air observations on the GTS and I wouldn't believe that NCEP wouldn't use them. Same with all polar orbiters and data from other SH countries. AFAIK the satellite biases are fairly uniform. The instruments will perform differently in the tropics than at higher latitudes for example, and performance over the ocean is different to land and ice, but these issues aren't hemispheric-specific.

    You tend to get better skill in the NH because you have loads more surface/radiosonde obs (as the SH is mostly data-sparse ocean).


    It's possible that the model is tuned for better NH performance. The NH has more land and much more orography, so settings for gravity wave drag etc may not work well in both hemispheres.
     
    #149 Rush, Aug 15, 2014
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2014
  50. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I should add that a head honcho has been looking at snow forecast/verification with a prototype 1.5 km resolution model and apparently he was very pleased.
     
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