Predictions August 17th-20th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECMWF publish all their observation monitoring statistics online. Have a look. Can't find the NCEP equivalent.
     
  2. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    GFS moving the bullseye up the coast and inline with the BOM. Lucky stroke of luck for the mountains.
     
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  3. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    How does this weather event compare with the problems that rain caused last year?
     
  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's mid August.
    There is a decent base.
    She'll be right.
    Imo
     
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  5. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I do not like the latest NSW BoM predictions. Clear snow and reasonably windy Saturday night through to Wednesday. May as well make the most of tomorrow.
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday looks atrocious for (mainly) nsw but Vic too
     
  7. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    farmers are celebrating and we wait anxiously.
     
  8. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sister in Breeza is happy. Rain a few weeks ago n raining again
     
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  9. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Moon in cup shape shape= precipitation
     
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  10. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    you'll have your answer by wed
     
  11. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Grasshopper's Perisher forecast on Mountainwatch has continuously predicted snow over the past few days. BOM has returned to snow Saturday then rain. Jane has rain or wet snow above 1700. If only temps can deliver - too close to right off as a clear snow only event - still some cause for optimism - albeit very cautious at that
     
  12. BH

    BH One of Us

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    The BOM going for snow above 1500m tonight....They have to be smoking some serious crack. I cant see any snow- its wet and warm. Hoping like hell there is some sought of cold pool sitting over the alps.
     
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  13. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Snow showers down to 1000m today and sunday in Tas, hopefully enough of that cool air can drift north into Vic to dilute some of the warmer moist air drifting down.
     
  14. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    After an awesome season so far a return to normal programming for an Oz winter this weekend that's for sure!

    Lots of rain, just cold enough to through in some wet snow/sleet as a tease to give us hope of base building dump of wet snow then virtually nothing of note IMO. Just a little to warm for any real chance of snow. These systems leave me wishing our hills were just 300m higher!
     
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  15. Time

    Time Hard Yards

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    300m...i'd be happier with another 3000!
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not asking too much...

    Off topic, sorry.
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its been a season of weather. .. this was never unexpected. 700hpa levels are too warm and saturated for "snow". Any that would fall will not be the sort of stuff you'd like anyways.

    Base is bomber...its frozen more colder than a nuns V.J.

    garden needs a water....roll on
     
  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    ... there is a pulse Jim ... he lives ...
     
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  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I agree its not something that I want to ride, but it could be better than you think.

    = The 700 hpa temps are not that bad. With low pressure those temps will drop to 2500 AHD.


    -6 on south east side of the flank at 2500m will be okay for a bit of wet snow, and help build up the western side of the Main range. Who knows ?


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  20. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to cloud over in Jindy - anyone care to take a stab at Sunday morning conditions
     
  21. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Fine and sunny......:whistle:
     
  22. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Rain is looking like holding off till at least tonight looking at radar. Last couple of runs don't look as moist as earlier in the week either.
     
  23. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    Cloudy with the sun poking thru at hotham at the moment. Coolish. No sign of rain yet.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Forecasts only in this thread.
     
  25. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cloud building @ Perisher - temps cool on mountain - BOM once again predicting snow above 1700 for event, lowering to 1500 by Tuesday. We may just escape with more wet snow than clear & net gain - perhaps I'm the frog in the pelican's beak in defiance to probabilities. Still a 50/50 bet each way IMO
     
  26. cqen2l

    cqen2l Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Raining now Northern Beaches in Sydney.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC suggests rain by 10am for northern resorts and extending Buller around 1pm
    Perhaps snow down to 1800m tomorrow afternoon.

    IMO
     
  28. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    I am an old timer been living in the Monaro since 1967. I have seen August rainfall events deliver more than once. Huge rainfall in Canberra but huge dumps of wet snow in the mountains. We will see. This one is open and is 50 50 option, however BOM have dropped the maximum for Canberra for Sunday to 10c down from 13c a big drop!!! and it is already 6.8. There appears to be no warm feed as yet. I notice that perisher AWS is near zero
     
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  29. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    I think we'll see 50mm in the Shoalhaven & coastal catchments, with the mountains escaping the worst of it with a bit of luck.

    I'm about ready to bet on the Kangaroo River being paddleable tomorrow and drive down from Sydney. Just texted the guys.
     
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  30. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    seriously wet in the gong sbm.
     
  31. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    What are the chances of Warragamba opening again? Could be 100mm catchment wide.
     
  32. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    3.4 ml in negative temps @ Perisher so fat. Snow not rain. BOM now lowering snow level to 1500. Perisher forecast is snow - albeit wet for event. Could see good accumulation if temps stay below Max of 2 for event.
     
  33. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Surely that would be unlikely given it's been a very long time since we've had decent rain around Sydney....is a NE direction for an incoming weather system ideal for Warragamba and catchments?
     
  34. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Having worked in the catchments for a while, after a dry period it usually takes back to back rain events to get a big rise in the dams as FourSquare has said. Having said that this event appears to be widespread across the catchments and the dam level is quite high to start with so can't rule it out, but I think it's unlikely.
     
  35. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    On another note, BOM forecast for today @ Perisher: All snow for today and 15-35mm of it......interesting
     
  36. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    8.8 ml @ Perisher @ all - ve temps
     
  37. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re 'gamba it is at 82%.. Will take more than this to make much of a dint.
     
  38. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    After a brief period of surprised optimism..I am back to calling this a creek opener...
     
  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Anyone thinking that once this pineapple is done with us will it also effect UnZud in a few days time......? Seems to be heading their way on the BOM 4 day'er
     
  41. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Still snowing quite wet though at Blue cow
     
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  42. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    With temps rising steadily & main cloud band yet to hit we are still on a cliff hanger in NSW. BOM predicted max of 2 for Perisher today & given it is .8C at 1.30 we still have cause for optimism that more wet than clear will fall. So far no damage & some accumulation. It will be interesting to see if our best case scenario can be delivered by Tuesday
     
  43. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should have checked that. Thought it was havering around full.
     
  44. Tree Breaker Bob

    Tree Breaker Bob Addicted

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    Snowing nicely at Charlotte Pass, accumulating in the trees, a good day was had

    Bob
     
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  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sadly the creeks opened several weeks ago. The "creek in thaw" sign at Perisher main bridge was a very sad sight. It was late July - and there were already jokes about spring skiing conditions. Nonetheless, if this is the only "wet event" in the next few weeks it should all last nicely through to the long weekend at Perisher. Just need some really cold "el nino nites" to freeze it as solid as a dead abbott and party on...
     
  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You are talking El Nino admist a big eastern seaboard inland trough dumping moisture?
     
  47. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was half a joke. We have just had a couple of weeks of very cold "el nino" nights. If this wet snow was followed again by some really cold nights - then the base will be frozen solid for weeks to come. Latest yr.no - suggests coming nights won't be as cold as they have been - but plenty of dry days ahead.

    The daily SOI is currently at it's most consistent negative in months - the running 30 days SOI is well under 0. This pineapple express served cold must be confusing many people. The ongoing "La Nada" is a strange beast worthy of countless PHDs yet.
     
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  48. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Hard Yards

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    Dont post often on this site, read with interest constantly. This system although not done with, has turned out to be quite positive compared too some of the doom and gloom posted earlier in the week. Models and charts are great but in the end its what happens in the moment that counts. Not sure if this is a prediction or a observation or just a passing thought.
     
  49. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Very true, there are lots of variables which can change on the day.
     
  50. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    System far from over but a positive result so far.
    As for doom and gloom, systems such as this that have produced snow can likely be counted on one hand since records began imo.
     
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