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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.
This has looked promising for a day or two. IMO
This could be another sustained period like we have at the moment, with 2-3 small systems at ~36hr intervals. Certainly plenty happening in Spag from the 1st-8th.
I agree this period looks very promising and cold.
Watching with interest. Arriving Perisher 7th.
Not much alignment but I do like EC's run up. It has potential for sure.
06Z GFS now back flipped and going for a cut off with 'dump of the season' moisture, but at 222 hours out, and because it's the 06Z run, I'd ignore this for now.
I predict I'll be at Thredbo from the 1st. Bring it on!
Ridging in full effect on 12UTC EC Run - I think this one will peak too early over WA, IMO:
Sorry, I'm still crap at charts. Might this be a clear snow event?
It's not looking bad, but it is still too far out to make a prediction
Might be a 'nothing event' but as others have mentioned, still a long way out and could change for the better in the next week......let's see what this afternoon's 00UTC runs bring.......
Models still wobbly with this one IMO
Rain/snow event again atm
GFS suffering from model deja vu (looking too similar to last week's event to warrant a realistic view IMO).
I think by Tuesday it'll have a handle on it - that said, I think EC is already there.
GFS looks wack this afternoon.
Still there on EC, but it's pretty weak IMO
Looking like a mostly rain / a little snow kind of event unfortunately. Hoping for something better on EC
Looks good for a pineapple.
Another direct hit by the jetstream would be bad.
But it looks nodal too.
Looks good about here
I am not big on GFS 06Z runs so I don't care for it much anyway, but I certainly see a hellava lot more snow than rain in that chart.
Yr showing 15cm 1/8, dry and cold 2/8?
What's the better GFS run then?
Any one out to 4 days...
00Z & 12Z IMO.
I maybe wrong here, but I am of the understanding the 18Z & 6Z runs have an input of differing data sets that limits the forecast skill of that run.
Happy to be corrected though.
Above 1600m IMO
EC still liking this one this morning. GFS off it and gone whack again on the 12Z run.
Jane seems to like it:
"The high passes through on Saturday, and the wind direction and left over moisture means its mostly dry. Then a cold front slides through on Sunday producing rain. The next big system arrives late next Monday - and there could be a lot of snow next Tuesday."
It's faded in and out on long range models a couple of times, hopefully it stays in now.
I think every new chart is contradicting the last one. I am waiting until the current storm passes to predict something
The model is made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members.
Tossing up the second quick getaway to the Bo Mon to Wed next week. Waiting on some certainty in this prediction period whether to hit go or not. Don't mind wind and snow but won't be going if its rain. Would Wednesday this week be too early to have a fair idea on potential outcome??
4 day rule = 4 days out.
*although I'm sure the guru's would have a reasonable idea of rain v no rain by Wednesday.
Yeh, if we get some stability and general agreement, Wednesday afternoon I guess.
Right now I'm not seeing prefrontal rain, but given that there's still a fair bit of wobble, I wouldn't set that in concrete.
Cheers guys, i'll keep holding my breath. its much more informative on the forum then some other guess sites.......
That's the theory, although I'm a little skeptical about the truth of it.
GFS is all in on the 00Z run.
Even with an ECL
I was about to say I think we'll get an ECL...
GFS @ 174h usually throws one up!
We should run stats on how many ECL's GFS progs, and how many actually come off.
Not much rain on the canuck just cold.
No ECL on EC
@180hrs, Low's center is just out of the frame ,likely to have a much better idea on thursday.
Another cold one.
For all the winging we've witnessed over the last week, that could be a 'season starter' as far as GFS goes. Still lacks some alignment with EC both in structure and precip. Although it's good to see some southerly in this one across both models.
AXS going for a "cold ECL" at the moment. It's still over a week away so yet to settle.
GFS-06Z shows a moist low and bombs it, match the run with the previous thickness runs and you got a nice system if it verifys
Sure is. Tassie will be sure to get another floggin' if that comes off.
I like how it swings big which may limit the tropical influence as opposed to drawing it in. I feel the slack high in the Tasman on both models could promote an ECL scenario given the temps out there at the moment. I am keen to turn the page here.
GFS seems to have it carrying through to the 4th on the latest run. Looks good for next week
Bring it on! At Buller as of this Sunday for 3 nights. It's been a while since I've skied Aussie pow.
I predict fun times
Hold your collective horses!