Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]



    This has looked promising for a day or two. IMO
     
  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like EC.
    This could be another sustained period like we have at the moment, with 2-3 small systems at ~36hr intervals. Certainly plenty happening in Spag from the 1st-8th.
     
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  3. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    I agree this period looks very promising and cold.
     
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  4. Marty_McSly

    Marty_McSly What a plonker. Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watching with interest. Arriving Perisher 7th.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not much alignment but I do like EC's run up. It has potential for sure.

    06Z GFS now back flipped and going for a cut off with 'dump of the season' moisture, but at 222 hours out, and because it's the 06Z run, I'd ignore this for now.
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I predict I'll be at Thredbo from the 1st. Bring it on!
     
  7. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Ridging in full effect on 12UTC EC Run - I think this one will peak too early over WA, IMO:

    [​IMG]
     
  8. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry, I'm still crap at charts. Might this be a clear snow event?
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not looking bad, but it is still too far out to make a prediction
     
  10. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Might be a 'nothing event' but as others have mentioned, still a long way out and could change for the better in the next week......let's see what this afternoon's 00UTC runs bring.......
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    Models still wobbly with this one IMO
     
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  12. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain/snow event again atm
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS suffering from model deja vu (looking too similar to last week's event to warrant a realistic view IMO).
    I think by Tuesday it'll have a handle on it - that said, I think EC is already there.
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS looks wack this afternoon.

    Still there on EC, but it's pretty weak IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Looking like a mostly rain / a little snow kind of event unfortunately. Hoping for something better on EC
     
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  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks good for a pineapple.

    Another direct hit by the jetstream would be bad.
    [​IMG]

    But it looks nodal too.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks good about here

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am not big on GFS 06Z runs so I don't care for it much anyway, but I certainly see a hellava lot more snow than rain in that chart.
     
  19. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Yr showing 15cm 1/8, dry and cold 2/8?
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    What's the better GFS run then?
     
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any one out to 4 days...
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z & 12Z IMO.

    I maybe wrong here, but I am of the understanding the 18Z & 6Z runs have an input of differing data sets that limits the forecast skill of that run.
    Happy to be corrected though.
     
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Above 1600m IMO
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC still liking this one this morning. GFS off it and gone whack again on the 12Z run.
    [​IMG]
     
  25. Snowcone

    Snowcone Hard Yards

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    Jane seems to like it:

    "The high passes through on Saturday, and the wind direction and left over moisture means its mostly dry. Then a cold front slides through on Sunday producing rain. The next big system arrives late next Monday - and there could be a lot of snow next Tuesday."
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's faded in and out on long range models a couple of times, hopefully it stays in now.
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think every new chart is contradicting the last one. I am waiting until the current storm passes to predict something
     
  28. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    The model is made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members.

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
  29. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Tossing up the second quick getaway to the Bo Mon to Wed next week. Waiting on some certainty in this prediction period whether to hit go or not. Don't mind wind and snow but won't be going if its rain. Would Wednesday this week be too early to have a fair idea on potential outcome??
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    4 day rule = 4 days out.
    *although I'm sure the guru's would have a reasonable idea of rain v no rain by Wednesday.
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, if we get some stability and general agreement, Wednesday afternoon I guess.
    Right now I'm not seeing prefrontal rain, but given that there's still a fair bit of wobble, I wouldn't set that in concrete.
     
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  32. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Cheers guys, i'll keep holding my breath. its much more informative on the forum then some other guess sites.......
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's the theory, although I'm a little skeptical about the truth of it.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS is all in on the 00Z run.
    Even with an ECL ;)

     
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  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was about to say I think we'll get an ECL...
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS @ 174h usually throws one up!
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We should run stats on how many ECL's GFS progs, and how many actually come off.
     
  38. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    Not much rain on the canuck just cold.

    [​IMG]
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No ECL on EC

    [​IMG]
     
  40. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    @180hrs, Low's center is just out of the frame ,likely to have a much better idea on thursday.
     
    #40 Jeffb, Jul 25, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2016
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Another cold one.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    For all the winging we've witnessed over the last week, that could be a 'season starter' as far as GFS goes. Still lacks some alignment with EC both in structure and precip. Although it's good to see some southerly in this one across both models.
    [​IMG]
     
  43. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    AXS going for a "cold ECL" at the moment. It's still over a week away so yet to settle.
     
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  44. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    GFS-06Z shows a moist low and bombs it, match the run with the previous thickness runs and you got a nice system if it verifys [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sure is. Tassie will be sure to get another floggin' if that comes off.
    I like how it swings big which may limit the tropical influence as opposed to drawing it in. I feel the slack high in the Tasman on both models could promote an ECL scenario given the temps out there at the moment. I am keen to turn the page here.
     
  46. Qroozn

    Qroozn Hard Yards

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    GFS seems to have it carrying through to the 4th on the latest run. Looks good for next week
     
  47. Ski Tragic

    Ski Tragic Hard Yards

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    Bring it on! At Buller as of this Sunday for 3 nights. It's been a while since I've skied Aussie pow.
    I predict fun times;):cheers:
     
  48. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hold your collective horses!
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seriously.