Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have a good feeling about this one. I think there will be less rain and more snow than progged. I think the snow will start earlier on Monday even than most people think. Normally I am conservative, but I feel good about this one.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Going with the Vibe?
     
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  3. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Don't take those WZ plugins seriously.
    I'm thinking seriously you may get 1cm yes 1 on Monday.



     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Guthega backside could be good in southerlies
     
  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I don't mind it and like Jane's early Call.

    GFS is really into it. Thinking Monday night will be snowing big time.

    Very long duration ECL will get stuck in Tasman for 5 days, which is unique. And I think it will snow above 1400 to 1500 m all week.

    Guthega backside tree run. Charlotte's Pass North face all love Southerlies. And maybe the backside of Hotham and Baw Baw (????), will score some good old Oz Pow / Corn and all accessible by Lift and nice to ride in the Arvo sun.

    l
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was for illustration of tthe moisture infeed only.
     
  8. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Being a Tasman Low rather than ECL ?
    Not being a smart arse btw !
     
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  9. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Troppo has a fair bit of cold and body in it .
    May explain The Vibe.....
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    East face of Mt Loch could be a good zone if the souther comes in. Or even the western face.
     
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  11. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    GFS back with an ECL. If that eventuates it'll be windy AF, but Baw Baw / Falls Creek / NSW could do alright.
     
  13. Portski

    Portski Addicted

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    [​IMG]
    BOM 4-dayer has the low well and truly stalled in the Tasman Tuesday and Wednesday.
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not pretty. Tells me it's wet pretty much all of Monday. IMO
     
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  15. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    A smidge too far North?
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Easy Coast going to be pumping later in the week.
    IMO.
     
  17. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Yeah that's how i read it, and i cant see it snowing on monday as the other predictors are seeing. I'm inclined to think the low wont amount to much and its likely it will slip SE when E of Tassie and not stall as per the GFS.

    I do see Wombathead and MickChopps are backing the GFS senario, so i'm eager for the monday outcome .
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Optimism is high among the commercial snowcasters
    Over 60cm at Baw Baw according to MountainWatch.
    Charts say otherwise
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is looking alright for everyone but Tassie (Bad down there)
    GEM is looking good for Tassie.
    And EC looks good for NZ but not great for Aus.
    We are two days before the front. Can the charts be a little more decisive?
     
  20. Ski Tragic

    Ski Tragic Hard Yards

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    I'm with the vibe. Heading up tommorrow until Wednesday and I can feel it in my bones.

    Not sure what the charts are predicting but my bones ..........

    :thumbs:
     
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  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  22. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    lol
     
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  24. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    To far to get to. Probably not worth the effort. ;)
     
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  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hoping.
    Thinking the vibe is on our side this year.
     
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  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay, I'll keep it to myself.
     
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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Expecting rain tonight into tomorrow. If GFS is right, it will fall as sleet or above 1700m as snow tomorrow.
    Temps rise throughout day with rain all Monday
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reckon they've got a handle on the rain portion, still flipping and flopping on the follow up.
     
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  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Observations will be crucial for this one - Not a lot agreement amongst the charts
     
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  30. Floodman

    Floodman Hard Yards

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    AXS latest run suggesting snow in Vic about 10pm Monday and 1am Tuesday in NSW. Easy 30-60mm rain prior.
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That sounds about right.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Downgrade on EC 00Z
    [​IMG]
     
  33. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    And yeah thanks for the above post see the EC now going with the low slipping SE.



    [​IMG]


    Rips along as per the Bom, has the lows centre at roughly 157E Tuesday.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS jumping on board with EC IMO.
    Note the below is for precip 24hrs to 1000hrs Tuesday so is largely rain progged here (~40-50mm).
    [​IMG]

    All is good in the world @Vermillion snow-forecast.com agree with you.;) Wouldn't that be nice for Vicco resorts. bahaha
    [​IMG]
     
    #484 POW_hungry, Jul 30, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2016
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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks light Snow wise as far as Victoria goes, could be alright for NSW IMO
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #vandiemensshadow
     
  37. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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  38. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM thinking snow to 800 M on NSW CTs on Tuesday.
     
  39. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This looks more like 1400 ish.
     
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  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    How about this too for Thursday.

    -34 500 hpa ECL severely cutoff and not moving away. Big event.

    [​IMG]
     
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  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  42. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    ^ GFS has it sitting there for ages........ I don't believe much of GFS at all, at this time.

    [​IMG]
     
  43. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    When winds that are blowing from a region of warm air the high hpa to a region of colder air, results in a warming of the colder region. As the warm advection persists temperatures in the colder region will begin to increase as the warmer air moves into the region of colder air.
     
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  44. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Uppers are good there. Still not convinced but they're a reasonable cause for optimism.
     
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  45. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well some-one we know is optimistic so that gives me reasonable cause for optimism.
     
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  46. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict Nimmitabel cow country will be awesome
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    GFS Snowfall is looking good to Saturday IMO
    Good for NSW/Falls/Hotham IMO Poor for Tasmania
     
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you trying to have a go at me ;)
     
  49. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The low is isolated by the Jet Stream,so it cant move anywhere, and it will intensify with those -34 c.

    Its a logical progression IMO.



    [​IMG]
     
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