1. NOTICE: Did you lose your profile avatar image as a result of the great hammo-ing of 2020? (Sat 16 & Sun 17 Aug). If yes, then you need to know it won't be coming back, best to re-upload.

    This notice may be closed
    Dismiss Notice

Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    76,295
    Likes Received:
    60,946
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Where's the cold air coming from to keep this thing going though? Being cut off from the polar jet stream isn't it just gonna get warmer and warmer the longer it sits there? Temps will become more and more of an issue?
     
    POW_hungry and FourSquare04 like this.
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,812
    Likes Received:
    18,060
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yeah It will affect the current system later in the week IMO
     
  3. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    Absolutely no was just making the point the high being so strong will fill in the front rather quickly.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,207
    Likes Received:
    471
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Not liking the wind being forecast next week on BoM forecasts. =[
     
  5. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    8,333
    Likes Received:
    7,120
    Location:
    Sydney/Jindabyne
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    122,859
    Likes Received:
    69,928
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Stay on topic.
     
    Billy_Buttons likes this.
  7. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    I just looked over the synoptic i will go on record now. IMO there will be no LOW above 45S or within 150E.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  8. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    367
    Likes Received:
    276
  9. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    367
    Likes Received:
    276
    Coldfronts suggesting warm days lol
     
  10. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    367
    Likes Received:
    276
    Odd that the winds at level 150-180 are coming from the southern ocean, so where is that warm spot you talk of, Is that at 7000ft or sea level.?
     
  11. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    31,501
    Likes Received:
    5,325
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    I disagree
     
    7wombathead and Cuddles like this.
  12. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    367
    Likes Received:
    276
    Sorry I have to agree with Ski max, the stronger the high , the slower normally, At 1030hpa its not doing it, But it is directing/ sucking air from the south, which looks really similar to the last effort. Bring it on, 60+ , but hanging for 110.. I expect 2m plus at Spencers on Thursday..
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  13. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    I did not say warm days don't put words into my mouth. I saying not cold enough for snow the 540 imo wont be over the ALPS and there will be no LOW close to the coast full stop.

    lets wait and see before you judge. I will be more than happy to eat crow if i'am wrong.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,812
    Likes Received:
    18,060
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I don't expect 2m at Spencer's Creek, the low will just clip Aus, Not as far in the Tasman as Coldfronts said but still only clipping the Alps.
     
  15. Slalom

    Slalom A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2013
    Messages:
    8,978
    Likes Received:
    9,418
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I thought it was directed to the wording..........cold fronts/warm days....having a laugh.
    Although I could be wrong.
     
  16. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,611
    Likes Received:
    4,702
    These lows do happen

    I remember a mtr falling at falls creek once.....
     
    Louie and 7wombathead like this.
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    122,859
    Likes Received:
    69,928
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  18. Floodman

    Floodman Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2002
    Messages:
    186
    Likes Received:
    69
    Location:
    Bowral
    Hmmm might get a few flakes at home in Bowral judging by that progression.
     
  19. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    8,333
    Likes Received:
    7,120
    Location:
    Sydney/Jindabyne
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,758
    Likes Received:
    29,938
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Not much change from 15-16hrs ago IMO

     
    #520 POW_hungry, Jul 30, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2016
  21. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    Thanks was interested what you think. As you know i don't see uppers cold enough.and i dont agree with the GFS low. I have never seen it snow when its all convergence aloft over the continent.
     
  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    76,295
    Likes Received:
    60,946
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Anyone care to comment on models this morning?
     
  23. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,207
    Likes Received:
    471
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Windy. Far too windy. Wednesday might be a write off.
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,906
    Likes Received:
    1,591
    Location:
    South
    I think it will be clear by Friday / Saturday.

    Cold air can be recycled in the ECL, as rotational work cools latent heat from the surrounds maintaining structure (fluid mechanics and thermodynamic energy transfer) of the ECL. By the time it warms up it will far enough offshore and some new cold air will move over the Snowy Mts. Coriolis Effect (weak force)controls the direction of the rotation.

    I am off to Sydney for the Australian Stream Management Conference.

    Looks like big surf Friday / Saturday too.

    Enjoy the BC weekend guys, looks good.
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    18,009
    Likes Received:
    10,956
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Sure.
    They are all wack.
    A bit illogical progression-wise.
    I blame analysis of date.
    @Rush
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    18,009
    Likes Received:
    10,956
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    (Above 1900 on main range)
     
  27. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    29,560
    Likes Received:
    40,461
    I like them slim, but not too slim, with good teeth! Also they are mostly too tall.

    But OT, Im a radar vibe kinda guy, and I am giving this week a miss. I reckon rarara on Monday, but thinking the BOM will be right on totals thankfully (NSW), as the bulk slips a bit south. The cold air behind should give us a short sweet fall, cant see the SECL forming at this stage. The winds are what turns me off this week, too southerly for Bo.
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    76,295
    Likes Received:
    60,946
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Agree (minus all the scientific reasoning for it of which I have no idea about). But temps are far more favorable on both GFS and AXS when the moisture is there. Clears out significantly from Wednesday night. Who will pick this one.... EC or GFS?
     
  29. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    648
    Likes Received:
    908
    Monday wet until about 10 pm then some snow during Tuesday, up to 20cm up high then very little after that.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  30. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,611
    Likes Received:
    4,702
    I can't make head nor tail of this- is beyond my knowledge. It is so rare to have such divergent models this close in.

    Hence I'm going to back grasshopper, frog, BOM (and Jane as of Friday) who all seem to say 30-40cm minimum.

    @janesweather care to give us a Sunday insight?
     
  31. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    GFS is portraying a 1990 james storm off the east coast, its entertaining.ROFL
     
  32. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    629
    Likes Received:
    587
    bom 4 dayer encouraging with low moving west on Wednesday?
     
  33. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2003
    Messages:
    3,517
    Likes Received:
    441
    Location:
    Sydney - LNS
    I was listening to the weather bod this morning - put up his hand for shocking weather in WA with a 7m swell. ECL forming off NSW aand wild winds - all promising if they coincide.
     
  34. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    Yeah these guys Mickchoppers and wombathead have put there hands up for the ECL too.
     
  35. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,405
    Likes Received:
    1,360
    Location:
    Sydney
    I don't see the models as being that divergent. They all say warm prefrontal followed by southerly blast, cold pool and Tasman combine to form bombing low off coast followed by weak high. The difference is ECM has the low developing and sitting further east and continuing to move on, therefore we see less of the intense moisture laden bands progged on ACCESS and GFS. It only takes small differences in positioning and movement with ECLs to cause such big changes in outcome. My guess is we still won't be sure until it happens with this one.

    I think this is win-win (for all but one resort - Baw Baw which is win-lose). ECM wins - the ECL develops and moves off east, we see an nice drop of dry snow on Tuesday followed by somewhat drier and cooler days for nice skiing in second half of week (the only downside being the wind direction is not great for wind blowing snow into the right places and prefrontal might mean we see little gain for the base). GFS/ACCESS have tonnes of moisture attached to ECL sitting closer to Oz. after the initial southerly snow and temps generally cool enough for snow across most resort areas late into the week. Skiing not so good in this scenario due to intense wind and heavier/stodgier snow but it will set the base up beautifully for August with a bucket load of base building snow. The lose for Baw Baw is it's the one place that will have some marginal temps IMO if this plays out, so risk of rain instead of snow at times. Selwyn will be fine as the cold pool is at it's strongest further north and the second half of the system generally does not bring moisture up that way anyway.
     
  36. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    I agree with the rain, humidity driven. But not the ECL off SE NSW by midweek don't see a split jet @40S and 60S on any current synoptic chart.
    [​IMG]
     
    #536 ColdFronts, Jul 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
    Claude Cat likes this.
  37. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    474
    Likes Received:
    453
    Location:
    Melbourne, Baw Baw
    :(:(
     
  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    76,295
    Likes Received:
    60,946
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    2-3 days out and it's still there, cause for optimism. I have no idea what's going to happen apart from what I can see on the models.
     
    nfip and Snowy Joey like this.
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    122,859
    Likes Received:
    69,928
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO no real change.
    Wet Monday, a little snow Monday night and dry & cold afterwards.
    Baw Baw does quite nicely on Tuesday, but that's about it
     
  40. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    What do you think about that GFS mega storm CC.


    If anyone don't already know here is the link to the EC realtime model, it only goes out one day ahead its constantly plugged with updated data, Also has alot of niffy tools to forecast with.
    http://www.meteoearth.com/#/,148.45,-29.48,2.50,23,0,1,0,0,0,time=1470021780

    [​IMG]
     
    nfip and Karicta like this.
  41. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,611
    Likes Received:
    4,702
  42. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    Your welcome.

    On another note from what i can see the GFS just caved in, no ECL off NSW.

    [​IMG]
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,758
    Likes Received:
    29,938
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    IMO 00Z GFS has a downgrade on moisture for alps (Tues-Fri). Waiting for BSCH to update but just a general obs here.
     
  44. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    65
    On the 00z the low never climbs above 45S, i just eyeballed the whole run.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    122,859
    Likes Received:
    69,928
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    The Plowking likes this.
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,758
    Likes Received:
    29,938
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    As suspected, GFS downgrades moisture 10pm Monday-Friday as below. GFS has the cut off virtually ridged out.
    I think realistically at best we're looking at 15-20cm out of this now IMO
    [​IMG]
     
  47. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    629
    Likes Received:
    587
    So looking at yr the next week looks pretty ordinary with rain affected cover with a little snow tuesday and no fresh on the horizon :(
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,758
    Likes Received:
    29,938
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The problem is GFS, AXS & EC all agree on Tuesday is it's direct south which means the alps (and to a lesser extent the mainland) is rain shadowed by Tas. From Tuesday PM the high 'kidney beans' south of the low and shifts it off into Tasman.
    At upwards of 1020hPa on Wednesday that's fine weather territory!
    [​IMG]
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  49. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2001
    Messages:
    3,886
    Likes Received:
    2,921
    Location:
    Gordon, Vic
    At least it is cooler though
     
  50. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,405
    Likes Received:
    1,360
    Location:
    Sydney
    Don't despair, the short sharp cold blast that favours Baw Baw seems far more likely to happen!
     
    Baw Baw Bear and glengary like this.