Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I for one can see Baw Baw being the winner here. 1ST one to get cold and last one to get warm and best chance of a South Easterly flow.
     
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  2. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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  3. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Is there any snow at Baw Baw now?
     
  4. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    2m accumulation for weekly total is easily achievable, not 2m in one go!
    BOM is still happy with snow only above 1800m, happy with that form 9am Monday for 6 hours.,
    the hype begins
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasman-low-chances-increasing/524746

    A lot will miss Tassie and hit NSW
     
    #554 Cuddles, Jul 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Slipping away on 00Z EC, and trending inline with recent runs.
    [​IMG]
     
    #555 POW_hungry, Jul 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
  6. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    DOn't like the look of the next couple of days. Think we are going to see lots of wet followed by not much snow.
     
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  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Good words.
    Same here hence my reluctance to add any more than.
    Watching with interest which way the coin lands.
    To get off the fence tho I'm again sticking with #The Vibe.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Certainly, looking that way. Our at-one-point big gain is likely to be a loss now. IMO.
    The models have really struggled with this one.
     
  9. Snowcone

    Snowcone Active Member

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    Is it just me or do we never get significant upgrades, only downgrades. In my 3 or 4 years of following this forum, I can't remember many (?? any) times we got significant unexpected snow :(.
     
  10. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold Dedicated Member
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    Looking wet to me with the odd flurries at best.
     
  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    #561 nfip, Jul 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
  12. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture
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    i believe the technical term for snow forecasting in aus is 'hopecasting'
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Computer models are think tanks so the more real-time data they are fed the more accurate they become - hence why accuracy is greater the closer the run.
    That said upgrades/downgrades (as we know them) are merely corrections so in answer to your question I think you can always expect downgrades given the amount of variables and scenarios it has to eliminate as events happen.
     
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  14. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Apparently
     
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  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Also there has been a lot of weather , ECL's , last week a classic , that has been hard for the models to get a handle.
     
  16. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    The BOM 4 day (rule) maps look good IMO, am I reading it wrong or is the rule not applicable this time?
     
  17. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Looks like Perisher and Thredbo will do best out of this one above 1600m, IMO. It's on a knife-edge really, could go either way whether we see good snow or not.
     
  18. Gregah

    Gregah Active Member

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    And the BOMs 7 day forecast (Hotham) is saying 30-85cm of snow, with no use of the "r" word and daytime maximums at 0 or below...
     
  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    ECL / Tasman lows are always a wild card.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    For tomorrow, wintery mix at best throughout peaks tomorrow (+1600-1800m) otherwise rain is 100% guaranteed IMO. Snow from late evening.
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Well it could be worse. IMO

    Hotham (1800m) - potentially snow from 4pm?

    [​IMG]

    Perisher
    [​IMG]

    Buller
    [​IMG]

    Currently I see bugger all happening for the rest of the week TBH.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I don't see this at all. It will be wet tomorrow, with a bit of snow tomorrow night and that's it.
    It's a very strange forecast, I don't see how they came up with it TBH.
    IMO
     
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  23. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Axsr is moisture laden for its duration. I'm prepared to back it over anything else
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Well it's the ambitious one of the bunch. It's not out of the question for sure!
    [​IMG]
     
    #574 POW_hungry, Jul 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Bit of a mess IMO , but here tis.
    Gotta look at the 850's and 500's btw.


     
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  26. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Pray that ACCESS G comes off for Tuesday...
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    My head wants to go against this but i'm feeling like this will come off.
     
  28. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    ECL!!! It's better than Tasman Low. I think it will go for an ECL because it has the most agreement amongst the charts (If any) and because the high behind it might allow a bit of room for this system to stay in NSW for a while
     
  29. kiter

    kiter Active Member

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    Why all the doom and gloom ?
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'm afraid AXS is out on it's own.


     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Look at the charts and work it out.
     
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  32. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Given the inputs into the various models can't be wildly different, there can't be much needed for it to go one way or the other (I'm only talking positioning and duration of low)
     
  33. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    GFS has a low strengthening significantly inland over the nsw/qld border :eek:

    And since when would we back GEM over axsR?!

    Just sayin....
     
  34. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    Gem is inline with the GFS

    GFS now forms ecl up at QLDS/NSW border coming off the land with a tropical moisture influence.
    [​IMG]


    Nothing really to look at on the 2nd.



    [​IMG]
     
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  35. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    I was always worried about major rain from this event. I'm happy it's passing with not much of a moist whimper.
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It's really just model alignment, you can't rule GEM as a coincidence and ensembles suggest it'll tip in favour of the majority here. I like AXSR but it's not got much backing it IMO.
     
  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    You showed it yesterday on #542 :thumbs:
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Careful, it's not due until tomorrow. I think many maybe surprised at it's punch.
     
  39. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts New Member

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    That was still on land yeah not, formed over water?
     
  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    This is annoying. GFS is giving us a ECL too far to influence the Alps, Cold Southerlies and a strong high after the front. 5-15cm IMO 60-100mm of rain on Monday. Looking like a Net Loss
     
  41. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I agree. But it's a question of weighing the numbers game of 'more agreement wins' with the best local forecaster isn't it? And doesn't axsR use more sophisticated local inputs?

    So in a close run thing, I'll take the model which uses the best known inputs (if that is indeed what axsR has)...
     
  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The outcome of this will depend mainly on two things, how fast does the system cross the Alps and how strong the system is
     
  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    True but that's where the real one's wander down from , at least this year #vibe ?
     
  44. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    True.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'll back EC over all the other models, twice over.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yep, it's all happening tomorrow.
     
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  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    fify ;)
     
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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Does it have a good snowfall accuracy rate?
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    You do know that BOM use EC over AXS?
     
  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    It's already got both moisture and cold air. That's without doubt