I for one can see Baw Baw being the winner here. 1ST one to get cold and last one to get warm and best chance of a South Easterly flow.
2m accumulation for weekly total is easily achievable, not 2m in one go! BOM is still happy with snow only above 1800m, happy with that form 9am Monday for 6 hours., the hype begins http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasman-low-chances-increasing/524746 A lot will miss Tassie and hit NSW
DOn't like the look of the next couple of days. Think we are going to see lots of wet followed by not much snow.
Good words. Same here hence my reluctance to add any more than. Watching with interest which way the coin lands. To get off the fence tho I'm again sticking with #The Vibe.
Certainly, looking that way. Our at-one-point big gain is likely to be a loss now. IMO. The models have really struggled with this one.
Is it just me or do we never get significant upgrades, only downgrades. In my 3 or 4 years of following this forum, I can't remember many (?? any) times we got significant unexpected snow .
Last week we came out a foot or maybe more ahead of the models IIRC. Edit - Verm , The Fallen , D & others where on it btw GFS showed Clipper .... https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/26-28-july.75570/page-2
Computer models are think tanks so the more real-time data they are fed the more accurate they become - hence why accuracy is greater the closer the run. That said upgrades/downgrades (as we know them) are merely corrections so in answer to your question I think you can always expect downgrades given the amount of variables and scenarios it has to eliminate as events happen.
Also there has been a lot of weather , ECL's , last week a classic , that has been hard for the models to get a handle.
The BOM 4 day (rule) maps look good IMO, am I reading it wrong or is the rule not applicable this time?
Looks like Perisher and Thredbo will do best out of this one above 1600m, IMO. It's on a knife-edge really, could go either way whether we see good snow or not.
And the BOMs 7 day forecast (Hotham) is saying 30-85cm of snow, with no use of the "r" word and daytime maximums at 0 or below...
For tomorrow, wintery mix at best throughout peaks tomorrow (+1600-1800m) otherwise rain is 100% guaranteed IMO. Snow from late evening.
Well it could be worse. IMO Hotham (1800m) - potentially snow from 4pm? Perisher Buller Currently I see bugger all happening for the rest of the week TBH.
I don't see this at all. It will be wet tomorrow, with a bit of snow tomorrow night and that's it. It's a very strange forecast, I don't see how they came up with it TBH. IMO
ECL!!! It's better than Tasman Low. I think it will go for an ECL because it has the most agreement amongst the charts (If any) and because the high behind it might allow a bit of room for this system to stay in NSW for a while
Given the inputs into the various models can't be wildly different, there can't be much needed for it to go one way or the other (I'm only talking positioning and duration of low)
GFS has a low strengthening significantly inland over the nsw/qld border And since when would we back GEM over axsR?! Just sayin....
Gem is inline with the GFS GFS now forms ecl up at QLDS/NSW border coming off the land with a tropical moisture influence. Nothing really to look at on the 2nd.
I was always worried about major rain from this event. I'm happy it's passing with not much of a moist whimper.
It's really just model alignment, you can't rule GEM as a coincidence and ensembles suggest it'll tip in favour of the majority here. I like AXSR but it's not got much backing it IMO.
This is annoying. GFS is giving us a ECL too far to influence the Alps, Cold Southerlies and a strong high after the front. 5-15cm IMO 60-100mm of rain on Monday. Looking like a Net Loss
I agree. But it's a question of weighing the numbers game of 'more agreement wins' with the best local forecaster isn't it? And doesn't axsR use more sophisticated local inputs? So in a close run thing, I'll take the model which uses the best known inputs (if that is indeed what axsR has)...
The outcome of this will depend mainly on two things, how fast does the system cross the Alps and how strong the system is
