Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

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  1. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I for one can see Baw Baw being the winner here. 1ST one to get cold and last one to get warm and best chance of a South Easterly flow.
     
    #551 glengary, Jul 31, 2016
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  2. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    [​IMG]
     
    #552 ColdFronts, Jul 31, 2016
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  3. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Is there any snow at Baw Baw now?
     
    #553 Cuddles, Jul 31, 2016
  4. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    2m accumulation for weekly total is easily achievable, not 2m in one go!
    BOM is still happy with snow only above 1800m, happy with that form 9am Monday for 6 hours.,
    the hype begins
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasman-low-chances-increasing/524746

    A lot will miss Tassie and hit NSW
     
    #554 Cuddles, Jul 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slipping away on 00Z EC, and trending inline with recent runs.
    [​IMG]
     
    #555 POW_hungry, Jul 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
  6. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    DOn't like the look of the next couple of days. Think we are going to see lots of wet followed by not much snow.
     
    #556 Snow Blowey, Jul 31, 2016
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  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good words.
    Same here hence my reluctance to add any more than.
    Watching with interest which way the coin lands.
    To get off the fence tho I'm again sticking with #The Vibe.
     
    #557 nfip, Jul 31, 2016
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly, looking that way. Our at-one-point big gain is likely to be a loss now. IMO.
    The models have really struggled with this one.
     
    #558 POW_hungry, Jul 31, 2016
  9. Snowcone

    Snowcone Hard Yards

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    Is it just me or do we never get significant upgrades, only downgrades. In my 3 or 4 years of following this forum, I can't remember many (?? any) times we got significant unexpected snow :(.
     
    #559 Snowcone, Jul 31, 2016
  10. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking wet to me with the odd flurries at best.
     
    #560 gettingtooold, Jul 31, 2016
  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #561 nfip, Jul 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
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  12. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    i believe the technical term for snow forecasting in aus is 'hopecasting'
     
    #562 mr, Jul 31, 2016
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Computer models are think tanks so the more real-time data they are fed the more accurate they become - hence why accuracy is greater the closer the run.
    That said upgrades/downgrades (as we know them) are merely corrections so in answer to your question I think you can always expect downgrades given the amount of variables and scenarios it has to eliminate as events happen.
     
    #563 POW_hungry, Jul 31, 2016
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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Apparently
     
    #564 Jellybeans, Jul 31, 2016
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  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Also there has been a lot of weather , ECL's , last week a classic , that has been hard for the models to get a handle.
     
    #565 nfip, Jul 31, 2016
  16. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    The BOM 4 day (rule) maps look good IMO, am I reading it wrong or is the rule not applicable this time?
     
    #566 jungfrau, Jul 31, 2016
  17. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Looks like Perisher and Thredbo will do best out of this one above 1600m, IMO. It's on a knife-edge really, could go either way whether we see good snow or not.
     
    #567 Roarkie, Jul 31, 2016
  18. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    And the BOMs 7 day forecast (Hotham) is saying 30-85cm of snow, with no use of the "r" word and daytime maximums at 0 or below...
     
    #568 Gregah, Jul 31, 2016
  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECL / Tasman lows are always a wild card.
     
    #569 nfip, Jul 31, 2016
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    For tomorrow, wintery mix at best throughout peaks tomorrow (+1600-1800m) otherwise rain is 100% guaranteed IMO. Snow from late evening.
     
    #570 POW_hungry, Jul 31, 2016
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well it could be worse. IMO

    Hotham (1800m) - potentially snow from 4pm?

    [​IMG]

    Perisher
    [​IMG]

    Buller
    [​IMG]

    Currently I see bugger all happening for the rest of the week TBH.
     
    #571 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2016
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I don't see this at all. It will be wet tomorrow, with a bit of snow tomorrow night and that's it.
    It's a very strange forecast, I don't see how they came up with it TBH.
    IMO
     
    #572 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2016
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  23. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axsr is moisture laden for its duration. I'm prepared to back it over anything else
     
    #573 Karicta, Jul 31, 2016
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well it's the ambitious one of the bunch. It's not out of the question for sure!
    [​IMG]
     
    #574 POW_hungry, Jul 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of a mess IMO , but here tis.
    Gotta look at the 850's and 500's btw.


     
    #575 nfip, Jul 31, 2016
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  26. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Pray that ACCESS G comes off for Tuesday...
     
    #576 1st_King_of_QBN, Jul 31, 2016
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    My head wants to go against this but i'm feeling like this will come off.
     
    #577 Vermillion, Jul 31, 2016
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECL!!! It's better than Tasman Low. I think it will go for an ECL because it has the most agreement amongst the charts (If any) and because the high behind it might allow a bit of room for this system to stay in NSW for a while
     
    #578 Jellybeans, Jul 31, 2016
  29. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Why all the doom and gloom ?
     
    #579 kiter, Jul 31, 2016
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm afraid AXS is out on it's own.


     
    #580 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2016
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Look at the charts and work it out.
     
    #581 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2016
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  32. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Given the inputs into the various models can't be wildly different, there can't be much needed for it to go one way or the other (I'm only talking positioning and duration of low)
     
    #582 Karicta, Jul 31, 2016
  33. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has a low strengthening significantly inland over the nsw/qld border :eek:

    And since when would we back GEM over axsR?!

    Just sayin....
     
    #583 Karicta, Jul 31, 2016
  34. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Gem is inline with the GFS

    GFS now forms ecl up at QLDS/NSW border coming off the land with a tropical moisture influence.
    [​IMG]


    Nothing really to look at on the 2nd.



    [​IMG]
     
    #584 ColdFronts, Jul 31, 2016
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  35. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    I was always worried about major rain from this event. I'm happy it's passing with not much of a moist whimper.
     
    #585 1st_King_of_QBN, Jul 31, 2016
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's really just model alignment, you can't rule GEM as a coincidence and ensembles suggest it'll tip in favour of the majority here. I like AXSR but it's not got much backing it IMO.
     
    #586 POW_hungry, Jul 31, 2016
  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You showed it yesterday on #542 :thumbs:
     
    #587 nfip, Jul 31, 2016
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Careful, it's not due until tomorrow. I think many maybe surprised at it's punch.
     
    #588 POW_hungry, Jul 31, 2016
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  39. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    That was still on land yeah not, formed over water?
     
    #589 ColdFronts, Jul 31, 2016
  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    This is annoying. GFS is giving us a ECL too far to influence the Alps, Cold Southerlies and a strong high after the front. 5-15cm IMO 60-100mm of rain on Monday. Looking like a Net Loss
     
    #590 Jellybeans, Jul 31, 2016
  41. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree. But it's a question of weighing the numbers game of 'more agreement wins' with the best local forecaster isn't it? And doesn't axsR use more sophisticated local inputs?

    So in a close run thing, I'll take the model which uses the best known inputs (if that is indeed what axsR has)...
     
    #591 Karicta, Jul 31, 2016
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The outcome of this will depend mainly on two things, how fast does the system cross the Alps and how strong the system is
     
    #592 Jellybeans, Jul 31, 2016
  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    True but that's where the real one's wander down from , at least this year #vibe ?
     
    #593 nfip, Jul 31, 2016
  44. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    True.
     
    #594 1st_King_of_QBN, Jul 31, 2016
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'll back EC over all the other models, twice over.
     
    #595 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2016
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep, it's all happening tomorrow.
     
    #596 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2016
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  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    fify ;)
     
    #597 nfip, Jul 31, 2016
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does it have a good snowfall accuracy rate?
     
    #598 Jellybeans, Jul 31, 2016
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You do know that BOM use EC over AXS?
     
    #599 Claude Cat, Jul 31, 2016
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's already got both moisture and cold air. That's without doubt
     
    #600 Jellybeans, Jul 31, 2016
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