Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, it doesn't make sense why they make their own NWP if they don't use them. But yes they do EC
     
  2. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yer but it's all in the timing bro.
    It's a fine line.
    This year the vibe (la nina and - 've IOD) we know the moisture was/is coming.
    The temps ??? well that's the lottery
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Which makes their alpine forecast for this week quite at odds with this.
     
  4. skinavy

    skinavy One of Us

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    Forecast on news tonight was snow to 800m on Tuesday, interesting to see how pans how compared to the collective wisdom of the forum.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I don't think there's much question that tomorrow will be relatively warm until late afternoon/evening. And it will be cold for most of the week following. The $64000 question is how much moisture will be around beyond tomorrow night.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Quite conceivable. But there won't be much of it IMO
     
  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Funny. I had $64,000 in there but subbed ..the vibe :)
    edit - Punter level here... Monday was always going to be borederline prolly bit warmish.
    Later in the day 2200 hrs was looking better.
     
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  8. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Yeah 100% they do, with the blocking high to the east shown on that GFS model it would make it interesting.
    If the EC shows it after 48hrs then yeah maybe game on.
     
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  9. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weather zone does not have hotham above 0 till next Sunday at least after Monday
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane says 600m on Tuesday morning - I don't know where she got that from
     
  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's not been updated in 2 days.
     
  12. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The high and the low front are way out of whack IMO. Rain.
     
  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit.
    For baw baw.
     
  14. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Could be where the snow pack ends up after tomorrow
     
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Guesscast:
    Prefrontal 40mm
    Snow 10 to 15cm overnight Monday into Tuesday followed by fark knows Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
    Buller shouldn't be too affected if the fark knows ecl happens. The rest, possibly.
    But all seems a bit 'off' to me.
     
  16. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    In a season where a strongly -ve IOD is encouraging cold fronts to penetrate further north this GFS forecast for the 3rd (with the high forming so far south) strikes me as a bit odd...I'd be surprised if it panned out like this.
     
  17. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Wow, haven't checked the charts since Friday :o

    What a total let down and shift from last week's predictions :(
     
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  18. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    I can't see too much rain on Monday, was supposed too today, clear as. Above 1700 mostly snow or snow showers, so NSW will get more.. I am for Snow.. Vote SNOW..lol
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As @SAsurfa put it last week, the clear split in the LWT has it on lock. It's ridge and progression seem reasonable to me.[​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I don't recall the models showing much rain for today. Today was always going to be clear after the overnight rain/snow.
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #lotsa weather screwing crystal ball.
     
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  22. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Yeah this be the reason..

    Filtered 500 h-Pa 00z +120hr
    [​IMG]
     
  23. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Its becase pokeman why the models are whack
     
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  24. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    [​IMG]

    EC ens got some rain.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Majority rainfall, but as it's until 4am Tuesday one could expect some snowfall in that mix above 1400/1500m there also.
     
  26. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Question is where it goes.
    [​IMG]
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Also more important where is it coming from aka da fetch...
     
  28. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Yep I'm looking at the gazillions of charts posted here plus the forecasts and for perisher where I ski looks like some rain and then around 20 cm of snow bit of a net gain but freshies on Tuesday with nice weather and good snow for the rest of the week . Granted hokkaido in Japan it ain't , buy hey it's oz and this isn't too unusual
     
  29. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Its not a cut off low with Tasman origins, so no eating crow here.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I see BOM forecast now reflects the reality of the models now, rain most of today, a little snow tonight and only a bit following.
     
  31. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Just looked at radar , spot on unfortunately :(
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    talk about late to the party.
     
  33. Luke1993

    Luke1993 Hard Yards

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    So how much damage is expected to be done? Going up to buller for the weekend and they only just got all lifts rolling.. hate to be boarding on grass
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not a bit qualified to make a call , and I value anyone here that adds any of their own insight / knowledge to the discussion.
     
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I skied Buller yesterday and I expect a net loss for Buller. Aka 22 lifts won't be rolling next weekend IMO
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably dont need to look at the cams today.
     
  37. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    and it was over

    Do do do

    Before it begun......
     
  38. GnuDad

    GnuDad Hard Yards

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    Is there a link for these meteograms? I couldn't see it in the weather links sticky thread.
    Thanks.
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Google yr. no and the resort you require as in....
    yr. no Mount Hotham
     
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  40. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Once you have found it.
    Delete it.

    It will only cause further Aussie snow depression syndrome
     
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  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    or then insert Baw Baw and you'll feel better.
     
  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was gonna say take with a grain of salt.
     
  44. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    I would hide ones head in the salt until around the 10th of Aug. Not going to look very good on the hills for a while and im trying to be positive. La Nina wet and warm is winning over the Olympic year vibe. :(
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    calm your farm. 1st of August, 1m of snow on the ground.
     
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  47. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Never over till the fat lady sings and no fat ladies around Mt P this year.. Snow tonight.. 1.43 on the deck and we are going on. Base is in place , Glad to see PV outside the rain area!!
     
  48. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Well it has snowed today i was wrong, obviously its not to warm.
    [​IMG]
     
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  49. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    The fact is that its not looking very good for another nine days (at the moment), on top of the stretch since Thursday last week. imo
     
  50. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    im also happy. I was sitting back worried we would get another big rain event today/tomorrow. Touch wood, thats not going to happen.