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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.
Yeah, it doesn't make sense why they make their own NWP if they don't use them. But yes they do EC
Yer but it's all in the timing bro.
It's a fine line.
This year the vibe (la nina and - 've IOD) we know the moisture was/is coming.
The temps ??? well that's the lottery
Which makes their alpine forecast for this week quite at odds with this.
Forecast on news tonight was snow to 800m on Tuesday, interesting to see how pans how compared to the collective wisdom of the forum.
I don't think there's much question that tomorrow will be relatively warm until late afternoon/evening. And it will be cold for most of the week following. The $64000 question is how much moisture will be around beyond tomorrow night.
Quite conceivable. But there won't be much of it IMO
Funny. I had $64,000 in there but subbed ..the vibe
edit - Punter level here... Monday was always going to be borederline prolly bit warmish.
Later in the day 2200 hrs was looking better.
Yeah 100% they do, with the blocking high to the east shown on that GFS model it would make it interesting.
If the EC shows it after 48hrs then yeah maybe game on.
Weather zone does not have hotham above 0 till next Sunday at least after Monday
Jane says 600m on Tuesday morning - I don't know where she got that from
That's not been updated in 2 days.
The high and the low front are way out of whack IMO. Rain.
For baw baw.
Could be where the snow pack ends up after tomorrow
Snow 10 to 15cm overnight Monday into Tuesday followed by fark knows Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
Buller shouldn't be too affected if the fark knows ecl happens. The rest, possibly.
But all seems a bit 'off' to me.
In a season where a strongly -ve IOD is encouraging cold fronts to penetrate further north this GFS forecast for the 3rd (with the high forming so far south) strikes me as a bit odd...I'd be surprised if it panned out like this.
Wow, haven't checked the charts since Friday :o
What a total let down and shift from last week's predictions
I can't see too much rain on Monday, was supposed too today, clear as. Above 1700 mostly snow or snow showers, so NSW will get more.. I am for Snow.. Vote SNOW..lol
As @SAsurfa put it last week, the clear split in the LWT has it on lock. It's ridge and progression seem reasonable to me.
I don't recall the models showing much rain for today. Today was always going to be clear after the overnight rain/snow.
#lotsa weather screwing crystal ball.
Yeah this be the reason..
Filtered 500 h-Pa 00z +120hr
Its becase pokeman why the models are whack
EC ens got some rain.
Majority rainfall, but as it's until 4am Tuesday one could expect some snowfall in that mix above 1400/1500m there also.
Question is where it goes.
Also more important where is it coming from aka da fetch...
Yep I'm looking at the gazillions of charts posted here plus the forecasts and for perisher where I ski looks like some rain and then around 20 cm of snow bit of a net gain but freshies on Tuesday with nice weather and good snow for the rest of the week . Granted hokkaido in Japan it ain't , buy hey it's oz and this isn't too unusual
Its not a cut off low with Tasman origins, so no eating crow here.
I see BOM forecast now reflects the reality of the models now, rain most of today, a little snow tonight and only a bit following.
Just looked at radar , spot on unfortunately
talk about late to the party.
So how much damage is expected to be done? Going up to buller for the weekend and they only just got all lifts rolling.. hate to be boarding on grass
I'm not a bit qualified to make a call , and I value anyone here that adds any of their own insight / knowledge to the discussion.
I skied Buller yesterday and I expect a net loss for Buller. Aka 22 lifts won't be rolling next weekend IMO
Probably dont need to look at the cams today.
and it was over
Do do do
Before it begun......
Is there a link for these meteograms? I couldn't see it in the weather links sticky thread.
Google yr. no and the resort you require as in....
yr. no Mount Hotham
Once you have found it.
It will only cause further Aussie snow depression syndrome
or then insert Baw Baw and you'll feel better.
I was gonna say take with a grain of salt.
I would hide ones head in the salt until around the 10th of Aug. Not going to look very good on the hills for a while and im trying to be positive. La Nina wet and warm is winning over the Olympic year vibe.
calm your farm. 1st of August, 1m of snow on the ground.
Never over till the fat lady sings and no fat ladies around Mt P this year.. Snow tonight.. 1.43 on the deck and we are going on. Base is in place , Glad to see PV outside the rain area!!
Well it has snowed today i was wrong, obviously its not to warm.
The fact is that its not looking very good for another nine days (at the moment), on top of the stretch since Thursday last week. imo
im also happy. I was sitting back worried we would get another big rain event today/tomorrow. Touch wood, thats not going to happen.