Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,172
    Likes Received:
    1,596
    Location:
    Sydney
    Weekend was great. Still some snow to come from this event. Season is hanging in there so far.
     
    1st_King_of_QBN and mick chopps like this.
  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    In reality we've had 1 rain event (given today is panning out better than expected). Everything else has been snow and on a few occasions to very low levels. And we're only just into August.
     
    The Plowking, Ted Harper and skiingtk like this.
  3. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,961
    Likes Received:
    984
    Looks like some pretty good weather for snow-making as the week progresses.

    As for the 500 HPa ridge in the midst of a strong -ve AAO: I tend to think of it as the atmosphere trying to equalize things as cold air moves North, it has to return South to balance things out. And unfortunately it looks like we're in the wrong location...
     
  4. Qroozn

    Qroozn Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2015
    Messages:
    6
    Likes Received:
    3
    Interesting Wednesday forecast for NSW snowy mountains on BOM website. 30% at 1800, 20% at 1400, 50% at 1000m.
    Make sure you hang low guys!
     
  5. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,063
    Likes Received:
    4,024
    Now that's an inversion!
     
    LaNeige and POW_hungry like this.
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Not a skerrick for Vicco after tomorrow AM.
    [​IMG]
     
  7. Cham

    Cham One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2002
    Messages:
    1,279
    Likes Received:
    24
    Location:
    Vic
    One rain event? You could get a job working for resort management!
     
    Bill_James likes this.
  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Tell me another significant rain event outside of Friday week ago?
     
    notty and The Plowking like this.
  9. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    265
    Likes Received:
    304
    BOM certainly running with it. This afternoon's 4 dayer has it (the high) charging even further south. The final chart (Friday 10pm) is the most unusual Australian chart I've seen for some time...
     
    POW_hungry and 1st_King_of_QBN like this.
  10. blackice

    blackice One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2000
    Messages:
    504
    Likes Received:
    336
    Location:
    Nations Capital
    Technically correct. If I knew how I'd post the video of the creek that runs between the skitube and the base of perisher front valley raging in flood and 30 meters wide. I think they had to close the bridge for safety reasons. Never seen anything like it.

    Amazingly it seems to have very little impact on the snow quality (edit : or quantity, which is even more surprising)
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  11. Cham

    Cham One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2002
    Messages:
    1,279
    Likes Received:
    24
    Location:
    Vic
    There's been a few. 9th - 11th July...solid rain event to name one. Pre the big cold snap. I delayed my trip by a couple of days because of it. All good...this is Aus . Anyways this is off topic...sorry
     
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Yep. That was a significant rain event. That's the only one this season. Barely even been any prefrontal for most systems and they've been plenty cold enough until now.
     
  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    A little bit of prefrontal is not a rain event.
     
    notty and The Plowking like this.
  14. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,651
    Likes Received:
    1,816
    Location:
    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
    Courtesy of Brunos son - bridge closed

    [​IMG]
     
    Born2ski, blackice and cyclopath like this.
  15. blackice

    blackice One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2000
    Messages:
    504
    Likes Received:
    336
    Location:
    Nations Capital
    Incredible photo!

    IMO....
     
  16. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,565
    Likes Received:
    2,461
    LM and BB waving
     
    Untele-whippet likes this.
  17. NIFF

    NIFF Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2004
    Messages:
    64
    Likes Received:
    12
    Thursday 7 July, 27 mm rain by 9am. Thredbo Top Station. No more snow until 5 cm the following Sunday so could not be decribed as prefrontal.
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Clutching at straws if you're using lake mountain or Baw Baw as examples of extreme weather events.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  19. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,565
    Likes Received:
    2,461
    You say significant but mean extreme?
    BTW no straws here bro
     
    #669 derwent, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Okay that's one... Hardly significant though.
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    No in mean significant. Rain at lake mountain or Baw Baw is no significant. It happens multiple times every season.
     
  22. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,592
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    About half our systems ever in history agree.
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,592
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Lel.
    This. Lots.
    Anyways let's get back to mountain obs.
    Anyone got any?
    Edit; or predictions....got lost in the OT
     
  24. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    619
    Likes Received:
    574
    Not much happening at DP .. Rain has stopped :) edit.. Slowed down a lot is more accurate
    Edit 2 sorry obs :)
     
    #674 jungfrau, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
  25. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,565
    Likes Received:
    2,461
    wow
     
    cookieman likes this.
  26. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    366
    Likes Received:
    275
    Tuesday before rain event at perisher, Perisher picked up 2-3 inches as well, It left scouring on the main range. That's was an event. Today was a now show.
     
  27. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,565
    Likes Received:
    2,461
    Just to be clear here mick and plow ......I didn't and most very likely will never use LM or BB as examples of extreme weather events.
    They are your words mick.[/QUOTE].
     
  28. Cham

    Cham One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2002
    Messages:
    1,279
    Likes Received:
    24
    Location:
    Vic
    Rained in school holidays starting around 6th through to 11th July. Up to 40mm for all majors. 80mm for Baw Baw. Rain is rain. Your first statement there has only been "one" rain event. There has been a few this season, some heavier than others. It is what it is...
     
  29. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,103
    Likes Received:
    289
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Forecast wind has REDUCED as the high pressure system strengthens and pushes the low outwards. Looking at 15 - 25km/hrs over the next two days for Falls Creek (was 35 - 50). Nothing much left in terms of snow left in this one but good weather later this week ensues.
     
    Charles and Claude Cat like this.
  30. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    619
    Likes Received:
    574
    Good, southerly no good, blow snow off mountain.. I predict bluebird days and groomer is where it's at (would've preferred earlier predictions for this thread coming true though)
     
    Charles likes this.
  31. blackice

    blackice One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2000
    Messages:
    504
    Likes Received:
    336
    Location:
    Nations Capital
    Stay on topic. Predictions only. Sheesh...

    IMO..
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  32. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    619
    Likes Received:
    574
    Anyone predict snow tonight in NE? I predict a few snow showers based on obs
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  33. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    987
    Likes Received:
    2,334
    Location:
    Dandenong ranges Vic
    Bom forecast for Perisher says chance of snow tonight and tomorrow morning. Had some light snow this morning and a few heavier snow showers late this arvo.
     
    Marquise de Kappy and jungfrau like this.