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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.
A touch wet ok.. Last weeks pre front rain not cool..
Agree, I think that spag supports the other models showing some moisture arriving before the cold air on Monday. Still time for things to change though.
I think GFS was hinting at maybe 10-15mm prefrontal? That ballpark guru's?
Snowfall looks like an average cold front from the GFS IMO. Not looking like a dumping, hoping for some more snow
IMO looking at the hourly analysis on GFS, it's not cold enough until after 7am Tuesday.
Ouch, that's what Falls copped last Friday.
Possibly not that dissimilar without the extreme winds.
But remember, this is just GFS, and we've hardly got a settled prognosis yet.
Anybody ready for a flooding of the Thredbo River again
Interestingly, the "after" precipitation numbers are almost identical.
EC is looking like an ECL, GFS with a large prefrontal, Canada with a pretty good looking cold front. Bring out the guns for the US Navy prediction.
Looking good for a dump for 2nd to 4th IMO.
Like the look of that!
Weird that EC is going for an east coast low as opposed to GFS, the ECL lover model.
EC 00UTC run looked a bit 'meh' and a bit weak, IMO
Give it another day IMO
NAVGEM and Canada forecasts look pretty good. I will wait until GFS and EC work something out...
Still rain for Monday?
EC sticking to its ECL and upgrading it.. GFS back on board with it also, and all in.
Spag is rock solid.
We now see some level of settlement across the main models. ECL is it. For me, Spag ensemble almost vitually locks in it here.
EC now has a trough feature ahead of the front on Monday inline with GFS, so Monday will not be kind. GFS suggesting 30-50mm minimum. But we'll be looking at some healthy totals by Thursday (GFS has 60-75cm progged Tuesday AM through Thursday).
The back is obviously further out but ideally we want things to finish up by then as warm, moist advection sets in overt he Tasman and it could end a little wet for the alps if we see it hang south.
IMO still looks good for a solid gain 40-60cm likely for the mainstays at this stage.
GFS Totals Tuesday 5am-Thursday (potential snowfall period)
AXSG putting in a ball tearer
Monday's pre frontal via GFS:
Looks hella windy
AXS moisture as below, one could assume all of this to be snow for the resorts.
Like most cut off/ECL's; resort temps will have to be watched. She's not super cold. Wednesday onwards, temps look marginal for snow so the higher resorts will do best IMO.
850hpa Temps look alright to me on GFS. Snow above about 1300m for Wednesday. Uppers okay also around -24.
Maybe 1500m for Thursday?
Yeah, agreed. But it's GFS, who has (and still is) quite 'all-in' for this one. EC and the other bunch seem a little less optimistic.
Axs looks better for temps on Thurs IMO.
GFS 18z has totally gone all in :o !!!!
Yep, sorta. Might be a bit of cooling with those hectic winds as you say, but largely we'll be reliant on the uppers.
Almost a bombing low. Looks 'nanas.
Axs has 850 height at about 1400 for Thursday and temps 0 to -2 at that height. So on the bubble at resort bottom for the majors and surely accumulating snow at anything above that?
Yr.no for Hotham next week is off Chopps.
3ft storm territory.
And Jane has just gone all in.
im in if Janes in.
I know the trademark exists for 2 foot storm , but do we have one for 3 foot storm ?
Well it's another Olympic year, so all going to plan atm.
GFS 18z has potentially 4 days of solid snowfalls IMO
This has potential to define the second half of the season and leave behind a deep base, although being a milder system I'm not convinced some of the lower smaller resorts will come out much better off.
whats the wind looking like on the thursday for higher NSW resorts? doesnt look too bad?
Jane agreeing with our assessment of Monday's weather though.
She does. But '50 -100cm, or more.....' (If.......) is pretty bullish
She definitely is following GFS
have a look at those yr.no forecasts above, which is EC data. EC is generally her go to.
I don't think so, she's nearly always referred to EC or AXS; I don't recall any reference to GFS, although I could be wrong.
Need a weather troll thread for Yeah Naarrr
on record on these boards as an EC first and Axs Second forecaster.
The numbers are quite ridiculous this far out... but even as indication of a potentially big event and ignoring the actual numbers it's a pretty impressive forecast.
And at least in this instance, it does sit loosely aligned with what the models are suggesting more broadly.