Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    A touch wet ok.. Last weeks pre front rain not cool..
     
  2. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Agree, I think that spag supports the other models showing some moisture arriving before the cold air on Monday. Still time for things to change though.
     
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  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think GFS was hinting at maybe 10-15mm prefrontal? That ballpark guru's?
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Snowfall looks like an average cold front from the GFS IMO. Not looking like a dumping, hoping for some more snow
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looking at the hourly analysis on GFS, it's not cold enough until after 7am Tuesday.
    Beforehand 30-40mm?
     
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  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ouch, that's what Falls copped last Friday.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Possibly not that dissimilar without the extreme winds.
    But remember, this is just GFS, and we've hardly got a settled prognosis yet.
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anybody ready for a flooding of the Thredbo River again ;)
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    Interestingly, the "after" precipitation numbers are almost identical.
    IMO
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is looking like an ECL, GFS with a large prefrontal, Canada with a pretty good looking cold front. Bring out the guns for the US Navy prediction.
    [​IMG]
    Looking good for a dump for 2nd to 4th IMO.
     
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  11. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like the look of that!
     
  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Weird that EC is going for an east coast low as opposed to GFS, the ECL lover model.

    EC 00UTC run looked a bit 'meh' and a bit weak, IMO

    Give it another day IMO

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    NAVGEM and Canada forecasts look pretty good. I will wait until GFS and EC work something out...
     
  14. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Still rain for Monday?
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC sticking to its ECL and upgrading it.. GFS back on board with it also, and all in.
     
    #166 mick chopps, Jul 28, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2016
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  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag is rock solid.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We now see some level of settlement across the main models. ECL is it. For me, Spag ensemble almost vitually locks in it here.
    EC now has a trough feature ahead of the front on Monday inline with GFS, so Monday will not be kind. GFS suggesting 30-50mm minimum. But we'll be looking at some healthy totals by Thursday (GFS has 60-75cm progged Tuesday AM through Thursday).
    The back is obviously further out but ideally we want things to finish up by then as warm, moist advection sets in overt he Tasman and it could end a little wet for the alps if we see it hang south.

    IMO still looks good for a solid gain 40-60cm likely for the mainstays at this stage.

    EC
    [​IMG]

    GFS
    [​IMG]

    GFS Totals Tuesday 5am-Thursday (potential snowfall period)
    [​IMG]

    AXSG putting in a ball tearer
    [​IMG]
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday's pre frontal via GFS:
    [​IMG]
     
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks hella windy
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, agreed. But it's GFS, who has (and still is) quite 'all-in' for this one. EC and the other bunch seem a little less optimistic.
     
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  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axs looks better for temps on Thurs IMO.
     
  26. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    GFS 18z has totally gone all in :o !!!!
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, sorta. Might be a bit of cooling with those hectic winds as you say, but largely we'll be reliant on the uppers.
    [​IMG]
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Almost a bombing low. Looks 'nanas.
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axs has 850 height at about 1400 for Thursday and temps 0 to -2 at that height. So on the bubble at resort bottom for the majors and surely accumulating snow at anything above that?
     
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  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr.no for Hotham next week is off Chopps.

    3ft storm territory.
     
  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    And Jane has just gone all in.
     
  32. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    im in if Janes in.
    I know the trademark exists for 2 foot storm , but do we have one for 3 foot storm ?
     
  33. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    3ft stormTM
     
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  34. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Well it's another Olympic year, so all going to plan atm.
     
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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane's in
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS 18z has potentially 4 days of solid snowfalls IMO

     
  37. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This has potential to define the second half of the season and leave behind a deep base, although being a milder system I'm not convinced some of the lower smaller resorts will come out much better off.
     
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  38. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    whats the wind looking like on the thursday for higher NSW resorts? doesnt look too bad?
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Jane agreeing with our assessment of Monday's weather though.

     
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  40. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    She does. But '50 -100cm, or more.....' (If.......) is pretty bullish
     
  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    She definitely is following GFS
     
  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    have a look at those yr.no forecasts above, which is EC data. EC is generally her go to.
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I don't think so, she's nearly always referred to EC or AXS; I don't recall any reference to GFS, although I could be wrong.
     
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  47. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    on record on these boards as an EC first and Axs Second forecaster.
     
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  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    agreed.
    The numbers are quite ridiculous this far out... but even as indication of a potentially big event and ignoring the actual numbers it's a pretty impressive forecast.

    And at least in this instance, it does sit loosely aligned with what the models are suggesting more broadly.
     
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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