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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.
im at Falls weekend after next , thanks Jane .
Stay on topic
If you add it all up they have over 1m of snow.
Has potential to be big, but thats a tad ridiculous
agree. but even 50% of is a great result.
you can wipe Monday's numbers as rain straight away.
ECLs are hard to predict. Anything beyond the initial part of the system I'd be skeptical about, I don't think we'll really know until it happens. But it does have huge potential.
still a week out from next Thursday also, plenty of time for it to swing one way or the other.
Im up from the 12th so ill be keeping a good eye on this development
Not looking unrealistic ATM
This isn't an ECL (sorry gets thrown around way too much).
Just a broad deep cut-off / mid-latitude low and stalling more over Tassie rather than the East Coast.
It could change but ECL's are characterised by torrential and flooding rainfall, gale-force onshore winds and moving adjacent the East Coast.
This system looks to stall for a bit, directing dry cold offshores across most of the NSW coast (more so rain for East Tassie and Gippsland depending on positioning) before sliding off north-east through the Tasman but with no major influence on the coast re rainfall.
Becoming more and more commercialized
In all honesty i'd be happy the quicker the first front pissed off and moved away, hopefully it will get downgraded, because it's holding up a really strong front with no prefrontal behind it. On the models (this run anyway) it holds it up enough to peak way too early over SW WA and we dont get much if anything out of it.
Planet Money - snooze you lose. Girl's entitled to make a living
Absolutely, and I have no problems with that. It's the change in language from what Jane would have written a couple of years ago vs. now that makes me sad. Words like 'amazing' 'snow just keeps on coming' etc sounds like an RMB press release after a dusting in April.
Just as long as she doesn't start reporting snow depths...
Stay on topic.
AAO forecast is very nice. No wonder next week is likely to be one to remember: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml
yep. plummet you good thing!
That surface trough over inland WA on GFS 00Z is a grower. It's origin and direction is not too dissimilar to last Friday .
Me too from the 12th for 14 days. Can I wait? No, its killing me. But I predict that if these predictions hold, I will be one happy camper!
lets not get ahead of ourselves yet
GFS Accumulation based on GFS 00Z by next Thursday (94cm max data point - circa Kosciusko NP)
GFS looks locked and loaded now.
Surely this event needs a name ??
94cm storm, Telecrags fist with arm attached .?
Yeah had a look at the AAO the other day, very tasty.
- AAO - IOD = tons of potential!
Just looked at 00ZGFS. All i could say was "Hubba Hubba!"
Let's call it "The Hoth System"
60 to 50?
that is 60mm of liquid followed by 50cm of solid?
South Island NZ
Might even be a bit more solid in it than that. 50-70cm likely Tues- Thurs NSW resorts IMO.
A lot will depend upon when it turns to snow on Tuesday. A bit earlier and it will make a large difference.
Potentially above 1800m will do a lot better in anycase.
Yeah it's been shifting around between late Monday night and early Tuesday. Hoping for the earlier or a little less pre-frontal moisture.
Either way the following dumps look great and cold with snow down to 600m a runner.
I predict a tingling in the nether regions.
Hitting Perisher 12th-19th.
Stay on topic.
Here's a change, 00Z EC has backed right off on this one.
What may Baw Baw possibly get from this system ?
CMC is similar.
Not terrible, but not epic either. IMO
Dropped it like a stone
Yeh, looks like a quick 20mm & 30cm following type system now - if that IMO
Sensational language is sensational.
Still respect though.
Just a bit prone to the 'extreme' end of descriptive language.
Like I said, still respect , meteorologist and analysis of more than just gfs any particular day...
60cm at best, 5cm at worst
It's only one run, could upgrade again
15- 25cm when the system turns more southerly in the latter stages IMO of course
BOM suggesting a bit more pre-frontal Monday for VIC with 10-30mm then NSW 5-15mm, not too much damage before the show start early Tuesday.
GFS has been suggesting double that so I'll gladly take 30mm and the same in snow.
Out of interest the UKMO have completely automated their forecasting services. There are no longer any humans in the loop.
Why? Because they add no value.
What happened, seemed like all systems go.. Just a bad run maybe?