Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    im at Falls weekend after next , thanks Jane .
    Stay on topic
     
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  2. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you add it all up they have over 1m of snow.
    Has potential to be big, but thats a tad ridiculous
     
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  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    agree. but even 50% of is a great result.
    you can wipe Monday's numbers as rain straight away.
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    ECLs are hard to predict. Anything beyond the initial part of the system I'd be skeptical about, I don't think we'll really know until it happens. But it does have huge potential.
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    still a week out from next Thursday also, plenty of time for it to swing one way or the other.
     
  6. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im up from the 12th so ill be keeping a good eye on this development
     
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  7. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Not looking unrealistic ATM
     
  8. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    This isn't an ECL (sorry gets thrown around way too much).

    Just a broad deep cut-off / mid-latitude low and stalling more over Tassie rather than the East Coast.

    It could change but ECL's are characterised by torrential and flooding rainfall, gale-force onshore winds and moving adjacent the East Coast.

    This system looks to stall for a bit, directing dry cold offshores across most of the NSW coast (more so rain for East Tassie and Gippsland depending on positioning) before sliding off north-east through the Tasman but with no major influence on the coast re rainfall.
     
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  9. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    This
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Becoming more and more commercialized :(
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    In all honesty i'd be happy the quicker the first front pissed off and moved away, hopefully it will get downgraded, because it's holding up a really strong front with no prefrontal behind it. On the models (this run anyway) it holds it up enough to peak way too early over SW WA and we dont get much if anything out of it.
     
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  13. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Planet Money - snooze you lose. Girl's entitled to make a living
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutely, and I have no problems with that. It's the change in language from what Jane would have written a couple of years ago vs. now that makes me sad. Words like 'amazing' 'snow just keeps on coming' etc sounds like an RMB press release after a dusting in April.
     
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  15. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Just as long as she doesn't start reporting snow depths... :out:
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  17. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensemble forecast.
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #trending
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep. plummet you good thing!
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That surface trough over inland WA on GFS 00Z is a grower. It's origin and direction is not too dissimilar to last Friday .
     
  22. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Me too from the 12th for 14 days. Can I wait? No, its killing me. But I predict that if these predictions hold, I will be one happy camper!
     
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  23. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    lets not get ahead of ourselves yet
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Accumulation based on GFS 00Z by next Thursday (94cm max data point - circa Kosciusko NP)
    [​IMG]
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS looks locked and loaded now.
     
  26. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Surely this event needs a name ??
    94cm storm, Telecrags fist with arm attached .?
     
  27. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Yeah had a look at the AAO the other day, very tasty.

    - AAO - IOD = tons of potential!
     
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  28. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Just looked at 00ZGFS. All i could say was "Hubba Hubba!"
     
  29. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Let's call it "The Hoth System"
     
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  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    60 to 50?

    that is 60mm of liquid followed by 50cm of solid?
     
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  31. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    South Island NZ :eek:
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Before ?


    After
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might even be a bit more solid in it than that. 50-70cm likely Tues- Thurs NSW resorts IMO.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A lot will depend upon when it turns to snow on Tuesday. A bit earlier and it will make a large difference.
    Potentially above 1800m will do a lot better in anycase.
     
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  35. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Yeah it's been shifting around between late Monday night and early Tuesday. Hoping for the earlier or a little less pre-frontal moisture.

    Either way the following dumps look great and cold with snow down to 600m a runner.
     
  36. Slalom

    Slalom A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict a tingling in the nether regions.
    Hitting Perisher 12th-19th.
    Good times.
    Stay on topic.:out:
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Here's a change, 00Z EC has backed right off on this one.

     
  38. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    What may Baw Baw possibly get from this system ? :cheers:
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    CMC is similar.



    Not terrible, but not epic either. IMO
     
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dropped it like a stone
     
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  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, looks like a quick 20mm & 30cm following type system now - if that IMO
     
  42. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big time.
    Sensational language is sensational.
    Still respect though.
    Just a bit prone to the 'extreme' end of descriptive language.
    Like I said, still respect , meteorologist and analysis of more than just gfs any particular day...
     
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    60cm at best, 5cm at worst
     
  44. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    It's only one run, could upgrade again
     
  45. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Fizzer...
     
  46. Bullerdonk

    Bullerdonk Hard Yards

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    15- 25cm when the system turns more southerly in the latter stages IMO of course
     
  47. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    BOM suggesting a bit more pre-frontal Monday for VIC with 10-30mm then NSW 5-15mm, not too much damage before the show start early Tuesday.
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has been suggesting double that so I'll gladly take 30mm and the same in snow.
     
  49. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Out of interest the UKMO have completely automated their forecasting services. There are no longer any humans in the loop.

    Why? Because they add no value.
     
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  50. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    What happened, seemed like all systems go.. Just a bad run maybe?