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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.
Was frothing for next week - feeling robbed; let's hope we see an upgrade
This creates a thread of its own.
Yep - I said this earlier tonight.
I like to ski off piste in and near resort during snowstorm, that's what I was looking forward to doing at Hotham next week, not sun and groomers ..
Stay on topic.
Sorry I don't usually backread the thread except when I see a chart
According to BOM I would say its an upgrade for Perisher. Snow forecast for next 7 days straight. They are going for snow to 1400m on Monday and 800m Tuesday. It wont happen cause I will be there.
I went to the big guns at the Navy.
And I saw a large prefrontal on Monday, and some light snow behind it IMO.
Lucky it's only the NAVGEM chart
Same as EC, and AXS are saying.
Could be an upgrade in the morning.
wow, GFS is a shocker tonight. It has been doing downgrades on the night runs imo. Morning should look better, but, i would still not put money on this system.
Has been slowly shifting less favourable. Not the best sign, but here's hoping.
Bom 4 dayer giving me a little hope with that second low and trough?
Big upgrade in BoM forecast for rain for Monday - 60mm Cabramurra. Bye bye Selwyn. Not much snow by comparison after.
Rough end of the pineapple inbound.
Yr (Hotham) showing snow Monday (not sure about that) nothing Tuesday and 45cm Wednesday to Friday.. That's a bit better
Bom forecast for Perisher has rain/snow for Monday and then snow through to Friday. I hope this is true we are on our way up for 7 days
Yeah .nah has it snowing at perisher for the whole of the next system . Is there any credibility to this crystal ball?
12Z run has all and sundry going for the cut off to land NE of Tassie.
Monday rain totals on the rise with 50mm minimums (80-100mm possible). Snow in the resorts by 10/11pm Monday night.
Tuesday & Wednesday look good for snow down to 1200m (20-30cm)
Wednesday night we'll start seeing marginal temps for the resorts.
Wednesday 10pm (snow to ~1600m) GFS has uppers as 2/-6/-22
Thursday 10pm (snow to ~1700m) GFS has uppers as 3/-6/-24
Snow totals Tues/Wed (20-30cm)
Snow/rain totals (Thursday Friday), snow above ~1600m
EC 12Z at it's peak on Tuesday.
GFS 12zis back this morning.
Roller Coaster continues. From this mornings maps and the ups and downs I am going with 40-50mm till monday evening then 40-50 cm snow till thursday. Above 1600m all IMO
Looking bad for Buller then
That top chart shows plenty of red behind 540, does that indicate big snow to follow the rain?
AXSR chart is stamped 2200hrs Monday. So precip values are 24 hr totals to stamp. Thickness (& pressure) values are progged at time stamp.
In basic terms this says the cold air is late to the precip party. 96 hour chart would technically show you snow totals.
Yr still on it, all snow , 30 plus on Tuesday. ...
Spag cut off you think ???
Frankly EC is still pretty crap. Plenty of rain Monday, rain shadow Tuesday and 15-30cm in the tail.
18Z GFS looks rubbish as well. Low heads too far North after Wednesday.
Cold pool / cut off forming.
Thought Yr is from EC model ?
My feeling Monday is looking bit like last week
Yr is showing the same
on bom general snowy mountains forcast (nsw) they are still saying snow to 1400m and above with heavy falls for monday. They often say rain on perisher forcast then say snow to 1500m. Its like they have no idea of location elevation even though they have aws on site.
Im referring here CC btw
Sub zero Monday , just...
Yr.no have been a bit optimistic so far this season with temps. Its getting closer but. Was about 2°C off but closer to only 1°C now (at perisher).
Check actual temps on bom, then look at hourly temps on yr.no for comparison. Their precip have been the most accurate IMO so far.
Very warm uppers though
While yr shows snow, I think best case "wintery mix".
I'm optimistic but reading charts a wintery mix from 1400 to 1800 looks a more likely monday outcome. By night it will be snow to lower levels but drying out a bit. Could be icy tuesday morning if not much snow overnight.
I think they are taking the minium snow level
I sort of agree with the above points except the 200 mb one, which I am keeping a close eye on this season with respect to position and pre-frontal rain.
There is some hope that the pre-frontal rain band may turn half way, with 546 crossing Alps.
I am testing this one. Just need something to get through Monday.
My theory is:
That when the main jet of the Tropical Jet stream is just North of the Snowy Mt it will Snow, provided there are those nice cold 500 Hpa's
That when the main jet ofTropical Jet stream is just South of the Snowy Mt it will Rain, provided there are those nice cold 500 Hpa's
That when the main jet of TropicalJet stream is just Eastof the Snowy Mt it will Snow, provided there are those nice cold 500 Hpa's
Models I believe are showing very cold dry air from the high hpa. They basically are now just showing it ridged out all over the SE.
Note no tropical influence.
Moist onshore, southerly flow from Wednesday onwards will leave us with shower activity through to Friday.
The high's ridging influence beyond Tuesday has always been in the mix, it just reduces the likelihood of any heavy falls IMO.
Gone by then.
Influence is earlier on Monday before the low passes thru.
Monday morning here.
Dont trust it, anything could happen
What's the general vibe for Monday thru sat next week?
I'm just trying to workout is next weekend Perisher will be ok
We have a vibe, we just don't know good bad or epic yet. Book anyway! Lots of snow around regardless
Just go, it will probably be better than it is now. All models are suggesting a net gain for Perisher anyway.
Cars packed and I am stoked to be going for 4 days, Mondays deluge/blizzard included.
No one can answer that question with any more than a guess at this stage.