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Predictions August 1st - 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Was frothing for next week - feeling robbed; let's hope we see an upgrade
     
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  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    This creates a thread of its own.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep - I said this earlier tonight.
     
  4. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    I like to ski off piste in and near resort during snowstorm, that's what I was looking forward to doing at Hotham next week, not sun and groomers ..
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry I don't usually backread the thread except when I see a chart
     
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  7. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    According to BOM I would say its an upgrade for Perisher. Snow forecast for next 7 days straight. They are going for snow to 1400m on Monday and 800m Tuesday. It wont happen cause I will be there.
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    I went to the big guns at the Navy.
    And I saw a large prefrontal on Monday, and some light snow behind it IMO.
    Lucky it's only the NAVGEM chart
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Same as EC, and AXS are saying.
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be an upgrade in the morning.
     
  11. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    wow, GFS is a shocker tonight. It has been doing downgrades on the night runs imo. Morning should look better, but, i would still not put money on this system.
     
  12. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Has been slowly shifting less favourable. Not the best sign, but here's hoping.
     
  13. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Bom 4 dayer giving me a little hope with that second low and trough?
     
  14. Floodman

    Floodman Hard Yards

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    Big upgrade in BoM forecast for rain for Monday - 60mm Cabramurra. Bye bye Selwyn. Not much snow by comparison after.
    Rough end of the pineapple inbound.
     
  15. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Yr (Hotham) showing snow Monday (not sure about that) nothing Tuesday and 45cm Wednesday to Friday.. That's a bit better:)
     
  16. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom forecast for Perisher has rain/snow for Monday and then snow through to Friday. I hope this is true we are on our way up for 7 days
     
  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.
     
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  18. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Yeah .nah has it snowing at perisher for the whole of the next system . Is there any credibility to this crystal ball?
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    12Z run has all and sundry going for the cut off to land NE of Tassie.
    Monday rain totals on the rise with 50mm minimums (80-100mm possible). Snow in the resorts by 10/11pm Monday night.
    Tuesday & Wednesday look good for snow down to 1200m (20-30cm)

    Wednesday night we'll start seeing marginal temps for the resorts.
    Wednesday 10pm (snow to ~1600m) GFS has uppers as 2/-6/-22
    Thursday 10pm (snow to ~1700m) GFS has uppers as 3/-6/-24
    IMO.

    Monday Rain
    [​IMG]

    Snow totals Tues/Wed (20-30cm)
    [​IMG]

    Snow/rain totals (Thursday Friday), snow above ~1600m
    [​IMG]
    EC 12Z at it's peak on Tuesday.
    [​IMG]
     
    #419 POW_hungry, Jul 30, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2016
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 12zis back this morning.
     
  21. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Roller Coaster continues. From this mornings maps and the ups and downs I am going with 40-50mm till monday evening then 40-50 cm snow till thursday. Above 1600m all IMO
     
  22. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking bad for Buller then
     
  23. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    That top chart shows plenty of red behind 540, does that indicate big snow to follow the rain?
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXSR chart is stamped 2200hrs Monday. So precip values are 24 hr totals to stamp. Thickness (& pressure) values are progged at time stamp.
    In basic terms this says the cold air is late to the precip party. 96 hour chart would technically show you snow totals.
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr still on it, all snow , 30 plus on Tuesday. ...
    Spag cut off you think ???;)
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Frankly EC is still pretty crap. Plenty of rain Monday, rain shadow Tuesday and 15-30cm in the tail.

    IMO
     
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  27. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    18Z GFS looks rubbish as well. Low heads too far North after Wednesday.
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here Tuesday.
    Cold pool / cut off forming.
    [​IMG]
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thought Yr is from EC model ?
    My feeling Monday is looking bit like last week :eek:
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yr is showing the same
     
  31. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    :D:D
     
  32. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    on bom general snowy mountains forcast (nsw) they are still saying snow to 1400m and above with heavy falls for monday. They often say rain on perisher forcast then say snow to 1500m. Its like they have no idea of location elevation even though they have aws on site.
     
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  33. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Yr.no have been a bit optimistic so far this season with temps. Its getting closer but. Was about 2°C off but closer to only 1°C now (at perisher).
    Check actual temps on bom, then look at hourly temps on yr.no for comparison. Their precip have been the most accurate IMO so far.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  36. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    I'm optimistic but reading charts a wintery mix from 1400 to 1800 looks a more likely monday outcome. By night it will be snow to lower levels but drying out a bit. Could be icy tuesday morning if not much snow overnight.
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I think they are taking the minium snow level
    I sort of agree with the above points except the 200 mb one, which I am keeping a close eye on this season with respect to position and pre-frontal rain.

    There is some hope that the pre-frontal rain band may turn half way, with 546 crossing Alps.

    I am testing this one. Just need something to get through Monday. ;)

    My theory is:
    • That when the main jet of the Tropical Jet stream is just North of the Snowy Mt it will Snow, provided there are those nice cold 500 Hpa's
    • That when the main jet ofTropical Jet stream is just South of the Snowy Mt it will Rain, provided there are those nice cold 500 Hpa's
    • That when the main jet of TropicalJet stream is just Eastof the Snowy Mt it will Snow, provided there are those nice cold 500 Hpa's

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  38. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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    Models I believe are showing very cold dry air from the high hpa. They basically are now just showing it ridged out all over the SE.

    [​IMG]

    Note no tropical influence.
     
    #438 ColdFronts, Jul 30, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2016
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Moist onshore, southerly flow from Wednesday onwards will leave us with shower activity through to Friday.
    The high's ridging influence beyond Tuesday has always been in the mix, it just reduces the likelihood of any heavy falls IMO.
     
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  40. ColdFronts

    ColdFronts Early Days

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  41. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gone by then.
    Influence is earlier on Monday before the low passes thru.
    [​IMG]
     
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  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agreed.
    Monday morning here.
    [​IMG]
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dont trust it, anything could happen :p
     
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  44. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    What's the general vibe for Monday thru sat next week?
     
  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    See above?!
     
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  46. Marty_McSly

    Marty_McSly Staying the **** at home. Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snap!
     
  47. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I'm just trying to workout is next weekend Perisher will be ok
     
  48. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    We have a vibe, we just don't know good bad or epic yet. Book anyway! Lots of snow around regardless
     
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  49. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Just go, it will probably be better than it is now. All models are suggesting a net gain for Perisher anyway.
    Cars packed and I am stoked to be going for 4 days, Mondays deluge/blizzard included.
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No one can answer that question with any more than a guess at this stage.
     
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