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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Aug 1, 2016.
Anything that's not clear today is fantastic!
Would it help if we all turned on the air con, left our fridges open and opened the windows?
Accumulation at the top of Perisher? Certainly nothing washing away.
Temp at Buller has dropped to .5. About 2 or 3 colder then I thought it would be.
Still pouring at FC village level.
Is the temp predicted to rise before the cooler change? If not, we may get through this with the bulk of base intact and perhaps 10-20 fresh as icing...
1.1 degs on Ben Lomond and hopefully dropping - showers incoming - hopefully turning to snow this afternoon
Accumulation showing on hotham cams at village level and big d. Dodging a bullet so far it seems
Temps slowly dropping, even flakes showing up now on buller cams!
At Buller. Been snowing since about 10 30am. Not setting on road yet but settling on jacket. This is around village level.
Wet Snow/Sleet is falling but it is better than nothing at Buller
Consistent rain in Thredbo this morning. Friends braves it and now soaked through. Sitting in a cafe and watching the drops fall.
Should be settling up on Summit and Baldy
Just looking over all the cams,really not seeing anything worth a mention just lots of rain on most lens.
Snowing steadily on Mt P for the last 2 hours!
As of this morning Eildon at 46.8% and rising at about 20cm per day. Wish the snow fields would rise that quickly.
Not a drop of rain so far in Ocean Grove, the rain blob passed north of us this morning now sitting east of melb. Not overly cold here either, my temp gauge is showing 14.5.
nothing accumulating on the lift stations etc... must be pretty wet stuff I'd imagine?
Water on lens means nothing, they're mostly heated to stop snow blocking them
Also note that the cold air is hitting SA on the various AWS. Swinging around from N to W quickly and will hopefully push the pineapple out of the way faster than expected.
Looks like a little wet snow at hotham
IMO it looks like fresh snow on the roofs in the background on on the table and chairs on the balcony
As Mickchopps pointed out after 2 hours of snowing.(nothing accumulating on the lift stations)
Your more chance of selling ice to a eskimo than me buying that.
Alternating between snow and rain at falls village. Currently rain. Not doing too much damage at this stage.
R*** at LM
Perisher has done ok to date. Heavy wet snow at village level at 10 with falling temperature. Only lightly snowing now but colder. Not any noticeable loss at village level. Snow sking very nicely and visibility surprisingly ok, wind has dropped a bit maybe some lifts will come off hold.. Drying out with coffee at the manor before heading back out. Sun is even trying to come out.
In for lunch at Buller. Still raining in the village but trying to snow up higher.
Pick of the runs is Buller spur and shakey knees. Not many on the slopes and it's starting to get a little sticky.
Mens down hill wasn't a great idea, fully of moguls brown patches and a small river on the left of the run.
Let's see what this afternoon brings. The cold air seems to be at mt gambier. Hurry up please and get here
Definitey a dusting accumulated on the balcony there. Not much more than that.
Def better than it raining from top to bottom, I'm heading up to Hotham and maybe Falls over the weekend, so invested interest in this one.
Let the cold come in while moisture is still there
Husband just texted to say it's been snowing top to bottom at mount Perisher with 5cm accumulation so far
The above Falls cam definitely freezing over more.
Wintery mix all morning at Hotham. Snow soft but maybe small net gain up high with loss down low. Starting to get colder and snow dryer. Tomorrow should be good.
Snowing down to bunny walk at Thredbo @1650m from 10.30am Good resultin IMO, can only get better from now on in
Temps slowly dropping at Baw Baw 1.5c and 4mm of percip so far could have been worse, not much to wash away anyhow.
I observe that it seems like a mostly positive and better than expected result so far......
It certainly could be a lot worse.
Latest Melbourne AP sounding doesn't show any cooling yet.
Gambier is fairly so-so as well.
Don't know what happened to the previous run.
Be happy with another foot of snow. Perisher top remains below 0, happier to see village at -2 as well.
Looking drier too.
Arrived at DP for the week. It's just above 1c, can confirm rain..with a little sleet
Hi fellow powder seekers! Long time reader, first time poster.
I believe there's a good reason of lot of this system is "unexpectedly" falling as snow - albeit wet snow/sleet - rather than rain.
Most members here are far more au fait with forecasting and interpreting charts than I am, though I do have some basic knowledge from studying Meteorology as part of an Aviation degree (uncompleted due to health issues) many years ago.
From a climate perspective there are several major factors at play. I believe pretty much everyone here is familiar with ENSO, which determines El Niño and La Niña conditions in the Pacific. These are currently neutral (not La Niña) according to the BOM. Most people here are also familiar with the influence of the Indian Ocean, specifically the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is currently the most negative it's been in at least 15 years at -1.37 (again, that's information directly from the BOM).
The above are both positive for potential snow. -ve IOD means more moisture feeding into cold fronts and North West Cloudbands (you probably know this). Neutral ENSO is also good (La Niña means more East Coast moisture, but often fails as r**n). Now the one phenomenon I haven't seen mentioned on the forums (I apologise if it has, but I haven't seen it): the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) or Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Essentially this is a measure of how far north cold Antarctic air and low pressure systems extend. The current reading for this is just under -2.5 (on a scale or +4 to -4) according to the American Climate Prediction Centre. -ve means more Antarctic weather pushes further north. This reading changes rapidly (often over a week or 2) and is hard to forecast therefore doesn't seem to be well publicised.
After being mostly positive since May, I believe the current -ve SAM is a significant factor causing this snow.
I apologise for the long winded post and hope it is in no way condescending, but it's one of the 2 biggest drivers of the ski season (along with IOD - ENSO I would say is third) and I haven't seen it mentioned on this forum before.
I hope I've added something of value!
Melbourne gone up .5 to 1 degree as of current
Of course right as I post this, a lot of the cams look like they're turning to r**n....
Hi Chris. Welcome and thank you for your very helpful first post!
You'll find SAM and AAO often mentioned in other threads, just not often in specific date prediction threads. Perhaps they should be...
Decided to head out about 12pm when rain stopped in Thredbo Village. Snowing constantly with 50/50 split of wet and floating snow from half way up Gun Barrel. At Merrits and snowing nicely. 6mm so far in Perisher gauge. Cooling down across the AWS. I reckon the level will drop from now on.
Welcome and thanks for your input Currawong Chris (same initials as the one and only Claude Cat).
Observation as received from DP is moisture is mainly rain for the past hour.
Here in Thomastown is only light showers so far today.
Hey Chris, Hermon just mentioned the AAO in the prediction thread.
Sudden heat wave looking at Mt Hotham temp obs! ... Or someone is p ing on the thermometer