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Predictions August 2-8th The Hand of Faith

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Kletterer, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Models have bounced around a fair amount for this one but 12Z EC has some reasonable parameters and probability plots- particularly temps.
     
  2. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just noticed it on YR.
     
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  3. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z canuck run. Was ridged out.





     
  4. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking very odd on GFS atm
     
  5. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    The season of Odd
     
  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 00z was ridge







     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's quickly appearing as the outlier here.
    GFS going a hard on ECs bullish prog. It all becomes quite divergent after EC throws up that secondary trough/Low in the Tasman on Wednesday.
    Talking smack IMO.
     
  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z Icon Big fat ridge.




    Sunny's weather.
     
  9. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z EC ridge.



    Today's 00z consensus = ridge. Pretty much as-per bqq thread.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    With spicy twist of reverse jetage to backdoor Betty.
    Holds about as much water as paper bag IMO.
    Wont last.
    ...And notwithstanding +'ve AAO gain.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Think maybe everyone should leave pulling the trigger on starting a new thread to pow.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah, anyone's welcome to take a punt.
    Admittingly, it's been a bloody tricky outlook.

    Gotta pay homage to the variables & alignment at hand though.
     
  13. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    you said that very quietly :D
     
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  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z ens control / mean.. Not much help to you.


    Hope that high don't just anchor itself in the GAB as they can @ times do..
     
  17. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Hahaha should’ve known better that it all wouldn’t have lasted more than a day before the ridge did its thing!!
     
  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 06z..




     
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  19. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weather be different this year.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  21. Adamski

    Adamski Addicted

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    Please let there be something by the second week of August!

    (Pardon the off topic comment)
     
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    My take from this evening’s blog, one of a little more optimism. But it’s only really likely to be a clipper style of system if it eventuates.

    [​IMG]

    The LWT is expected over SE Australia early in August, which means we might see a system off the backend of the larger node. There is plenty of signs that it may peak over SW WA, as has been happening with a number of systems due to stronger westerly (more convection) activity in the Indian Ocean in the past week or so. The tropical signal is forecast to move towards Australia in the first week of August, but it may not come soon enough for us to enjoy the benefits of a SE Australian peaking system.

    It also increases the likelihood of a trough across the continent stretching from the SE to the NW of Australia, bringing down tropical moisture.

    [​IMG]
    You can see this clearly on GEFS, but we also have a decent southern trough based off of this, that can bring decent cold and possibly snowfall.

    EPS (EC ensembles) show a stronger trough from the south, but it isn’t a very deep cold front, so obviously not going to lead to maximum reward in terms of snowfall. But there is nonetheless some potential for something.

    [​IMG]
    A vague cold front linked to the NW trough is to be found on GEPS, leaving all of the ensembles relatively on the same page, albeit with varying strengths. They have consolidated upon the weakfish cold front feature in the last couple of runs, prior just featuring a vague trough. It is possible it may return to this given a poor +AAO status, but there is certainly still a chance.

    [​IMG]
    Overall not the most exciting setup there is, but there is certainly potential for something there, if all it is would be a clipper with 5-10cms, we will take anything at this point.
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That said, the deterministic models are not looking great at the moment, with the trough missing us.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The only region (on paper) that will be seeing polar outbreaks in this date range looks to be the IO, IMO.
     
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  25. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z ec serve's up a ridge, and canuck serve's up a full on polar front.




     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of hope there.
    A bit of divergence too.
     
  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just my 2 cents.

    With the sam forecast and no consensus with a bullseye cold anom over the se. Still think myself the trigger has been pulled early with this date range.








    Control run













    Those are the cards on the table.


    The bread and butter of forecasting tools ec ens say a balloon of high pressure. With a flattened belt consistent with its + sam forecast. I Don't buy into just one run from any model (canuck 12z). Looks snake oil atm.


    Unless harry potter waves his magical wand and the sam forecast totally flip into neg @ this date range i see nothing @ all in this other than fine clear weather.



     
    #27 stormkite2000, Jul 27, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
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  28. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS says very cold on August 3-4. 850 HPa temp of -6c anyone?
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS & CMC are both looking pretty decent this afternoon.


    Featuring low level snow in Victoria on GFS.

    If you include past August 5th on GFS, we are looking at 50cm+

    No it’s not quite the silver bullet, but a much better position to be in. Definitely something to be resolved there IMO.
     
  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z canuck ens

    [​IMG]
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ridge out on EC


    GFS Ensembles showing a spread of shallow-neg neutral to strong positive AAO outlook around 2nd August.
    Big spread. Anyone's guess yet.
    I am guessing that's where GFS is getting it from.
    [​IMG]
     
  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don’t know, I thought EC produced something in the end.



    Funky setup, but it’s a signal all right.
    It’s got enough cold to get us going.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah... At 240 hours.

    Divergence starts at 120 hours so I 'aint buying that.
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Weird scenes inside the gold mine
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty much a carbon copy of the last 4 days (and 2 Monday's ago), with a ULL dissecting the SE.
    Law of odds influencing EC?
     
  37. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    ec 00z cutoff

     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Yes low probability but must take into account that the initial conditions are under a slightly unusual sequence . I think assimilation is really struggling atm.
     
  39. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    It don't tie in with sam forecast. But it would with the +sio.jump (ecl) Sticking to guns thinking its a load off crap.
     
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  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Or it could be the signs of a consistent pattern. Only time will tell.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It already is ;)
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #notdesirable
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    4th
    V's canuck with a solid ens high pressure.

     
  46. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Red pill or blue pill? Crazy stuff.
     
  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just looks ridiculous with the ec aao forecast.I know you guys are just looking for snow.
    But i'm just relaying how i see it With the modeling on the table. I know most don't agree. I will just watch from herein. And wish you the best of luck with it. Its not about how many likes with hype with me.
     
    #47 stormkite2000, Jul 27, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
  48. Feliks

    Feliks Hard Yards

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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane Bunn's cautionary synopsis:
     
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  50. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    IO= Indian Ocean?
     
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