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Predictions August 2-8th The Hand of Faith

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Kletterer, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Brains trust, @telecrag and I need an answer now. We are currently at Schlink Pass 1800 M and planning on camping here in the trees before bailing early from our tour because of the impending system.
    When is the weather likely to hit?
    If we continue now, we’ll be exiting in torchlight?
    We’ve be on the go for 6.5 hours now.
    A speedy response would be appreciated.
    TIA
     
    notty likes this.
  2. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    PS, will it rain or snow?
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    From Tomorrow 7-9am. It will be snowing at 1800m.
     
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  4. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Bazaar thought.............Wonder if you are allowed to throw snowballs at others during Covid within resort?
     
  5. Slowman

    Slowman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM predicts snow above 1200m starting mid to late morning. Easterly wind about 30kmph. Heavy falls possible. Camp where you are and depart back at first light perhaps?
     
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  6. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Bega BOM rainfall 250mm+ Brown Mountain maybe 2m of snow WTF
     
  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tough up princess' @Untele-whippet and @telecrag .

    Could be windy and wet in the morning. Cloud approaching from the NW on the sat pic. May be misty and shitty vis in the morning.
     
  8. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
    Holy...

     
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  9. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    With a snow level of 1100.
    Snow to 900 I reckon
     
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  10. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Roughly the range here. 1100 down to around 980.....Predict there might be a few turns had in the paddocks....
     
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  11. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reminds me of july12-13
     
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  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Thredbo Sat- Sunday

    Saturday 8 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 1
    Snow. Possible heavy falls.
    Possible rainfall: 40 to 70 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow. Heavy snow falls possible. Winds easterly 40 to 60 km/h tending east to southeasterly 25 to 40 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:10 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Sunday 9 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max -1
    Snow. Possible heavy falls.
    Possible rainfall: 45 to 80 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow. Heavy snow falls possible. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day then tending south to southeasterly 25 to 40 km/h during the afternoon.
     
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  13. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am thinking I may move van#2 to higher ground :eek:
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    my meaning a snowball will likely be able packed into cricket ball like density.
     
  15. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So you still thinking clag @Donzah ?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Clagg certified.
    No doubt about it.
     
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  17. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don’t attack the messenger here please......

    Channel Ten weather calling 1.8 metres of snow over 4 days at Perisher and Thredbo....

    Wonder what that’s going to do for folks wanting to head South:rolleyes:...Oh, the stampede.

    Remember....messenger only here:thumbs:
     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    People... Just don't get it...
     
  19. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Crazy weather map is ....
    "unprecedented". Trees and roofs will feature if this comes together.
     
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  20. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    If recent experience is anything to go by 1mm of this stuff is not going to equal 1cm accumulation. Maybe half that or less.
     
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  21. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    People ask questions because they are just trying to learn. There's no harm in that.
     
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  22. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reminds me of 1984. Hope it happens
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah I know.. Was more a general comment directed at the amount of froth.
    These are dangerous conditions.
    Very heavy deep snow will collapse tree limbs. Will close roads.
    There will be many people stuck out there.
    The visibility at times will be down to 10 metres.
    It's not a "normal" type snowfall that we expect in Australia.
     
  24. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think there could be potential avalanche risk in some Inbound resort areas if this comes to fruition. We had a bulletproof frozen surface that persisted for days. Put a metre of heavy snow on top of that :eek:
     
  25. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    All good.
    Fully aware of the conditions approaching and I have over 45 years of weather watching so I understand what's almost upon us.
    Just pointing out that your post sounded a little condescending to those who may not know as much as some more learned posters on this forum, and so they are reaching out for advice. POW does it well, and your reply that I quoted here is perfect and the sort of info the less knowledgeable require.
    As I said, all good.
     
  26. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Donzah No I get it. Was just wondering if your comment re 'dropping the hammer' also related to moisture v quantity.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Case in point.

    If you're in the BC (albeit in a hut) and you're asking the internet when the weather is due in then arguably you shouldn't be backo... Just saying.

    In any regard, white-out fog should be upon Schlink Hut before sun up. Good luck.
    EC resort level humidity tomorrow 10am:
     
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  28. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Well to be quite frank, given that this is the weather subforum, a basic knowledge of weather should be expected of the participants. Just my two cents.
     
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  29. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don’t forget that nice layer of sago in between. It’s like ball bearings and the last fall had quite a bit of it.

    As an aside, that little cornice on Olympic is a perfect candidate for a collapse. Like it does every year. It’s slowly building as you and I noted a few days back.
     
  30. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I went past that today, and the cornice had partially collapsed into the bowl. Rubble around. Nothing big.
     
  31. TinkyH23

    TinkyH23 One of Us

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    Only in Turkey.
    Sorry. . Couldn’t resist.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic please, gang.
    Weather predictions only.
     
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  33. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I recall the epic falls but can't recall the patterns that brought it all. Is it just the impending size of dump that makes you think of August 1984 or is it also the unusual setup we have on our hands?
     
  34. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    I can remember 1984 as well, but not the circumstances. This is indeed a rare dump in any circumstance. Particularly one from the east. To have had 2 in three weeks in certainly rare.
     
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  35. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    How will Jindabyne be affected?
     
  36. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's probably more BBQ thread...
    However at these fall rates you could see a foot of snow at the higher parts around town.
    I don't think lakeside will see much settle... But I am a bit worried
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    What's interesting about this system is it comes in two parts.
    You have a northerly aspect tomorrow...
    Then the easterly atmospheric River gets established.
    Basically the cold pool lays roughly along a axis of the gdr.
    The trough then runs from a upper level low to the west.... To a developing surface low offshore.
    It's a train track of precipitation.
     
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  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO.

    Friday

    NSW resorts looking at 30-45cm tomorrow
    Starts mid morning as I said above, gets heavy late morning and stays that way through to midnight. 2-3cm/hr and potentially even heavier at times. Wet heavy snow from the coast as has been stated, so will get hazardous. Might be hard to get out of Perisher late, so plan ahead obviously.

    Snow down to 1000m in the morning.
    1200-1300m in afternoon
    1300-1400m in evening

    Saturday

    15-25cm for the NSW resorts
    Falls ease overnight to around the 1mm/hr rate, snowing through to late afternoon, might ease to a break in falls. More snowfall later at night.

    1200-1400m overnight.
    1500-1800m during the day and into evening.

    Sunday

    Back to the heavier falls in the early morning, before easing as lifts open. Showers throughout the day. 15-30cm for it.

    Snowfalls to 1300-1500m potentially overnight.
    1400-1700m during the day.
     
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  39. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gut feel is the witching hour for NSW will be 2-4pm .
    That's when the heaviest snow will start to stick to man made surfaces.
     
  40. Kash

    Kash One of Us

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    Can get a day off work and visit Thredbo Monday and already have tix. Whats the consensus on the wind conditions by then? Certainly does look like a potentially epic day....
     
  41. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    wind will be fine... moderate .. cloud should push out as well
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday? Looking like a bloody great day on the groomers IMO.
     
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  43. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmmm ..... that frozen surface has had more freeze thaw than a corner store fridge
     
  44. Kash

    Kash One of Us

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    Yeah, agreed. Interesting that it cant get too tracked out due to the limited numbers. Thinking freshies for days...
     
  45. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict there will be chaos
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM OCF prognosis as below.
    For those playing at home, the OCF is a BoM output prog that gives weight to the best recent performing model data of 8 separate models. Getting a bit long in the tooth but it's very-much still relevant.

    Friday precip to 1600hrs:


    Saturday precip to 1600hrs:


    Sunday precip to 1600hrs:


    IMO Friday (tomorrow) night the heavens will open up and deliver at an incredible rate along the Main Range. Right down to Jindy lake level IMO.
     
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  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Official forecast


















    .............................................................................................................................................................................................................


    EC main deterministic + ENS snow forecast. Jindy







    No semantics just whats on the table atm.
     
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  48. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Occluded front. Yo:
     
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  49. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I mentioned it earlier.
    I've only ever seen (in person) over the badlands of Alberta CA.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And will carry through NSW.
    EC 700mb 11:00hrs Tomorrow: