Brains trust, @telecrag and I need an answer now. We are currently at Schlink Pass 1800 M and planning on camping here in the trees before bailing early from our tour because of the impending system. When is the weather likely to hit? If we continue now, we’ll be exiting in torchlight? We’ve be on the go for 6.5 hours now. A speedy response would be appreciated. TIA
Bazaar thought.............Wonder if you are allowed to throw snowballs at others during Covid within resort?
BOM predicts snow above 1200m starting mid to late morning. Easterly wind about 30kmph. Heavy falls possible. Camp where you are and depart back at first light perhaps?
Tough up princess' @Untele-whippet and @telecrag . Could be windy and wet in the morning. Cloud approaching from the NW on the sat pic. May be misty and shitty vis in the morning.
Roughly the range here. 1100 down to around 980.....Predict there might be a few turns had in the paddocks....
Thredbo Sat- Sunday Saturday 8 August Summary Min -2 Max 1 Snow. Possible heavy falls. Possible rainfall: 40 to 70 mm Chance of any rain: 100% Alpine area Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow. Heavy snow falls possible. Winds easterly 40 to 60 km/h tending east to southeasterly 25 to 40 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. Sun protection recommended from 11:10 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate] Sunday 9 August Summary Min -2 Max -1 Snow. Possible heavy falls. Possible rainfall: 45 to 80 mm Chance of any rain: 100% Alpine area Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow. Heavy snow falls possible. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day then tending south to southeasterly 25 to 40 km/h during the afternoon.
Don’t attack the messenger here please...... Channel Ten weather calling 1.8 metres of snow over 4 days at Perisher and Thredbo.... Wonder what that’s going to do for folks wanting to head South...Oh, the stampede. Remember....messenger only here
If recent experience is anything to go by 1mm of this stuff is not going to equal 1cm accumulation. Maybe half that or less.
Nah I know.. Was more a general comment directed at the amount of froth. These are dangerous conditions. Very heavy deep snow will collapse tree limbs. Will close roads. There will be many people stuck out there. The visibility at times will be down to 10 metres. It's not a "normal" type snowfall that we expect in Australia.
I think there could be potential avalanche risk in some Inbound resort areas if this comes to fruition. We had a bulletproof frozen surface that persisted for days. Put a metre of heavy snow on top of that
All good. Fully aware of the conditions approaching and I have over 45 years of weather watching so I understand what's almost upon us. Just pointing out that your post sounded a little condescending to those who may not know as much as some more learned posters on this forum, and so they are reaching out for advice. POW does it well, and your reply that I quoted here is perfect and the sort of info the less knowledgeable require. As I said, all good.
@Donzah No I get it. Was just wondering if your comment re 'dropping the hammer' also related to moisture v quantity.
Case in point. If you're in the BC (albeit in a hut) and you're asking the internet when the weather is due in then arguably you shouldn't be backo... Just saying. In any regard, white-out fog should be upon Schlink Hut before sun up. Good luck. EC resort level humidity tomorrow 10am:
Well to be quite frank, given that this is the weather subforum, a basic knowledge of weather should be expected of the participants. Just my two cents.
Don’t forget that nice layer of sago in between. It’s like ball bearings and the last fall had quite a bit of it. As an aside, that little cornice on Olympic is a perfect candidate for a collapse. Like it does every year. It’s slowly building as you and I noted a few days back.
I went past that today, and the cornice had partially collapsed into the bowl. Rubble around. Nothing big.
I recall the epic falls but can't recall the patterns that brought it all. Is it just the impending size of dump that makes you think of August 1984 or is it also the unusual setup we have on our hands?
I can remember 1984 as well, but not the circumstances. This is indeed a rare dump in any circumstance. Particularly one from the east. To have had 2 in three weeks in certainly rare.
It's probably more BBQ thread... However at these fall rates you could see a foot of snow at the higher parts around town. I don't think lakeside will see much settle... But I am a bit worried
What's interesting about this system is it comes in two parts. You have a northerly aspect tomorrow... Then the easterly atmospheric River gets established. Basically the cold pool lays roughly along a axis of the gdr. The trough then runs from a upper level low to the west.... To a developing surface low offshore. It's a train track of precipitation.
IMO. Friday NSW resorts looking at 30-45cm tomorrow Starts mid morning as I said above, gets heavy late morning and stays that way through to midnight. 2-3cm/hr and potentially even heavier at times. Wet heavy snow from the coast as has been stated, so will get hazardous. Might be hard to get out of Perisher late, so plan ahead obviously. Snow down to 1000m in the morning. 1200-1300m in afternoon 1300-1400m in evening Saturday 15-25cm for the NSW resorts Falls ease overnight to around the 1mm/hr rate, snowing through to late afternoon, might ease to a break in falls. More snowfall later at night. 1200-1400m overnight. 1500-1800m during the day and into evening. Sunday Back to the heavier falls in the early morning, before easing as lifts open. Showers throughout the day. 15-30cm for it. Snowfalls to 1300-1500m potentially overnight. 1400-1700m during the day.
Gut feel is the witching hour for NSW will be 2-4pm . That's when the heaviest snow will start to stick to man made surfaces.
Can get a day off work and visit Thredbo Monday and already have tix. Whats the consensus on the wind conditions by then? Certainly does look like a potentially epic day....
Yeah, agreed. Interesting that it cant get too tracked out due to the limited numbers. Thinking freshies for days...
BoM OCF prognosis as below. For those playing at home, the OCF is a BoM output prog that gives weight to the best recent performing model data of 8 separate models. Getting a bit long in the tooth but it's very-much still relevant. Friday precip to 1600hrs: Saturday precip to 1600hrs: Sunday precip to 1600hrs: IMO Friday (tomorrow) night the heavens will open up and deliver at an incredible rate along the Main Range. Right down to Jindy lake level IMO.
Official forecast ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. EC main deterministic + ENS snow forecast. Jindy No semantics just whats on the table atm.
