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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Kletterer, Jul 26, 2020.
Chance of snow at Corin Forest this weekend? Got someone bugging me to take them to see snow
BOM now has up to 1.9m over the next 3 days.
Yes, if you total the accumulative values, but this is not how it’s designed to be read.
The upper values are ‘possible falls at 25% chance’.
Hence “up to”.
I'd say unlikely. 1c last night. Now 4c. You never know though
Argh yep, spot on.
Statistically less than 25% of hitting the upper band on all day three days though, right (cumulative probability or something isn’t it?). But to offset, any excess from one day can make up for another day falling short.
For perspective, that is similar to my chance of dating Megan Gale..... That's how those numbers work hey.
That's probably what Shaun Hampson said when he was a boy ....
Ms. Bunn's computer says YES
NEXT 7 DAYS
Mt Buller: 25cm
Mt Hotham: 29cm
Falls Creek: 42cm
Mt Baw Baw: 11cm
Charlotte Pass: 88cm
Lake Mountain: 10cm
Mt Stirling: 20cm
Ben Lomond: 2cm
Mt Mawson: 1cm
Thunderstorms are possible across much of inland NSW as well as the central and northern ranges on Friday due to a low pressure system crossing the state. Thunderstorms are already occurring in the far northwest this morning. This activity will move east during the day, reaching the northwest slopes and northern ranges in the late afternoon and evening.
There is the potential for some thunderstorms to become severe during the afternoon or early evening for a broad area across the northern inland. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts, however heavy bursts of rain or large hail cannot be ruled out.
Yr no mount lofty SA showing a wintry mix between 2pm - 6pm
Currently 2.4 with precipitation (colder up the top)
As of last night a few of the regular posters in here were forecasting considerably lower snow levels than Jane currently is. Has there been a change in sentiment or is Jane calling it quite differently?
No change, IMO.
As @Donzah has alluded to Jane looks to be Victoria-bias in her calls.
As it stands snow is already falling to ~1300m so that proves she didn't have NSW in mind when proposing that FC, although I believe she should have been more specific.
I was going to say Jane is Vic based. From what I understand the cold pool is centred better on NSW. Looking at Vic BOM forecasts that demonstrates the expectation of lower snow levels in NSW as well, with BOM forecasts of ~1400m in Vic versus 1000-1100m in NSW.
BOM charts are up and that high is getting squashed!!
EC 18Z output is showing an improvement in Snowline and Dew Points over yesterdays output ( for Sat- Sun)
Thredbo top station forecast. Compared to yesterday's more conviction in totals (lower end (50% chance) up 5mm each day) and stronger winds Sunday. Temps about the same.
EC 0Z Snowline Sat- Sunday showing some faith. Dew points are a tad warmer than one would expect to support those Snowline plots, so could still be some periods of wintery mix kinda stuff imo
BoM relegating the snow line a touch. Fair call IMO.
I am by not means beating the drum but still on for 50-70cm above 1500m for MR Resorts by Monday AM, IMO.
Herewith, EC Ensembles 10am tomorrow to 10am Sunday.
About as good as you'll see in Aus; circa 40cm in 24 hours, above 14-1500m.
Our coveted 'top model of 8' OCF prog for snow to Saturday 16:00 hours
So the BOM have gone all in for Perisher this morning. I don’t ever recall seeing a forecast with an upper range like that for Perisher or thredbo top station (in winter)?
My eyes popped out of my head when i saw the same this morning, and thought the same thing. Do not recall a single days forecast being anywhere even close to that.
For anyone driving up today, pack a shovel!
Me too... I’m already in Thredbo until Mon so hoping that prediction (and lower snow lines hold) and will post obs when I can in the other thread.
EC 18 Z showing some( SNOWLINE) kindness for the rest of the weekend.
Stay on Topic. Place your observations in the Observations thread please folks
I noticed the flood watch has moved the major flooding north to Moruya rather than Bega. That should mean a reduction in snow for the alps and an increase for the Brindabellas in tonight's forecast as the rain bullseye seems to have moved north.
Bom walked back the crazy numbers...
Only 15-35.for Perisher now
Only glass half .........
They even stepped up this mornings bulletin which was weird. They were waaay out there. No model had even the lower end of their scale.
And this is the BOM latest for Thredbo
Cold pool far more dominant tomorrow on 00Z
Snow in strange places IMO
So far this week only the bottom end of the b predicted falls have occurred and nothing more, right?
Bottom end of range is 50% chance, so that would be about what we should expect but I actually think we are well short of that, especially the pumped up numbers from the BOM this morning.
Has crept into the forecast for the CTs for tomorrow
It must be that the main low is further north now. Far south coast totals have evaporated and more is expected up this way. Not good for the mountains. Two ECL dumps was getting greedy anyway.
Embedded Low a bullseye for Sydney tomorrow
Seriously hard weather to predict it would seem. Even 5 or 6 hours out.
How’re those predictions going today, BOM?
Yeah I posted in the NSW thread, which is more pertinent.
Be warned conditions change drastically after lunch with the arrival of the embedded low.
Potentially quite destructive to coastal areas of Sydney tonight.
The day has only started
On the radar it looks like the weather is too far north, like here in Canberra, which is being drenched right now.
Yeah the low is transitioning north. I wouldn’t expect too much more out of the system for the resorts today.
Perhaps another 5cm IMO.
Felt cold walking the dogs just now (Queanbeyan), predicting a temp drop for the mountains through the day touch wood. I think the forecast had today a smidge colder than yesterday as well.
I am heading up to Sunny Corner, will let everyone know if anything happens.