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Predictions August 2-8th The Hand of Faith

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Kletterer, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chance of snow at Corin Forest this weekend? Got someone bugging me to take them to see snow :rolleyes:
     
  2. JayDee78

    JayDee78 One of Us

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    BOM now has up to 1.9m over the next 3 days.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, if you total the accumulative values, but this is not how it’s designed to be read.
    The upper values are ‘possible falls at 25% chance’.
     
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  4. JayDee78

    JayDee78 One of Us

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    Hence “up to”.
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    *25% chance?
     
  6. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd say unlikely. 1c last night. Now 4c. You never know though
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Argh yep, spot on.
    Thanks.
     
  8. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Statistically less than 25% of hitting the upper band on all day three days though, right (cumulative probability or something isn’t it?). But to offset, any excess from one day can make up for another day falling short.
     
  9. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    For perspective, that is similar to my chance of dating Megan Gale..... That's how those numbers work hey.
     
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  10. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's probably what Shaun Hampson said when he was a boy ....
     
  11. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thunderstorms are possible across much of inland NSW as well as the central and northern ranges on Friday due to a low pressure system crossing the state. Thunderstorms are already occurring in the far northwest this morning. This activity will move east during the day, reaching the northwest slopes and northern ranges in the late afternoon and evening.

    There is the potential for some thunderstorms to become severe during the afternoon or early evening for a broad area across the northern inland. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts, however heavy bursts of rain or large hail cannot be ruled out.
     
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  12. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

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    Yr no mount lofty SA showing a wintry mix between 2pm - 6pm

    Currently 2.4 with precipitation (colder up the top)
     
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  13. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    As of last night a few of the regular posters in here were forecasting considerably lower snow levels than Jane currently is. Has there been a change in sentiment or is Jane calling it quite differently?

     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No change, IMO.
    As @Donzah has alluded to Jane looks to be Victoria-bias in her calls.

    As it stands snow is already falling to ~1300m so that proves she didn't have NSW in mind when proposing that FC, although I believe she should have been more specific.
     
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  15. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was going to say Jane is Vic based. From what I understand the cold pool is centred better on NSW. Looking at Vic BOM forecasts that demonstrates the expectation of lower snow levels in NSW as well, with BOM forecasts of ~1400m in Vic versus 1000-1100m in NSW.
     
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  16. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 18Z output is showing an improvement in Snowline and Dew Points over yesterdays output ( for Sat- Sun)
     
  18. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo top station forecast. Compared to yesterday's more conviction in totals (lower end (50% chance) up 5mm each day) and stronger winds Sunday. Temps about the same.
     

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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 0Z Snowline Sat- Sunday showing some faith. Dew points are a tad warmer than one would expect to support those Snowline plots, so could still be some periods of wintery mix kinda stuff imo
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM relegating the snow line a touch. Fair call IMO.


    I am by not means beating the drum but still on for 50-70cm above 1500m for MR Resorts by Monday AM, IMO.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Herewith, EC Ensembles 10am tomorrow to 10am Sunday.
    About as good as you'll see in Aus; circa 40cm in 24 hours, above 14-1500m.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Our coveted 'top model of 8' OCF prog for snow to Saturday 16:00 hours
     
  23. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So the BOM have gone all in for Perisher this morning. I don’t ever recall seeing a forecast with an upper range like that for Perisher or thredbo top station (in winter)?
     
  24. buckwheat

    buckwheat One of Us

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    My eyes popped out of my head when i saw the same this morning, and thought the same thing. Do not recall a single days forecast being anywhere even close to that.
     
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  25. buckwheat

    buckwheat One of Us

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    For anyone driving up today, pack a shovel!
     
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  26. AJS

    AJS One of Us

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    Me too... I’m already in Thredbo until Mon so hoping that prediction (and lower snow lines hold) and will post obs when I can in the other thread.
     
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  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 18 Z showing some( SNOWLINE) kindness for the rest of the weekend.
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Stay on Topic. Place your observations in the Observations thread please folks
     
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  29. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Hard Yards

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    I noticed the flood watch has moved the major flooding north to Moruya rather than Bega. That should mean a reduction in snow for the alps and an increase for the Brindabellas in tonight's forecast as the rain bullseye seems to have moved north.
     
  30. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom walked back the crazy numbers...
    Only 15-35.for Perisher now
     
  31. teleroo

    teleroo Waiting for winter... Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only :) glass half .........
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    They even stepped up this mornings bulletin which was weird. They were waaay out there. No model had even the lower end of their scale.
     
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  34. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    And this is the BOM latest for Thredbo

     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold pool far more dominant tomorrow on 00Z
    Snow in strange places IMO
     
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  36. Adamski

    Adamski Addicted

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    So far this week only the bottom end of the b predicted falls have occurred and nothing more, right?
     
  37. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Bottom end of range is 50% chance, so that would be about what we should expect but I actually think we are well short of that, especially the pumped up numbers from the BOM this morning.
     
  38. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Has crept into the forecast for the CTs for tomorrow
     
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  39. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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  40. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    It must be that the main low is further north now. Far south coast totals have evaporated and more is expected up this way. Not good for the mountains. Two ECL dumps was getting greedy anyway.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Embedded Low a bullseye for Sydney tomorrow
     
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  42. Undies

    Undies Pizza!

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    Seriously hard weather to predict it would seem. Even 5 or 6 hours out.
     
  43. Undies

    Undies Pizza!

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    How’re those predictions going today, BOM?




     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I posted in the NSW thread, which is more pertinent.
    Be warned conditions change drastically after lunch with the arrival of the embedded low.
    Potentially quite destructive to coastal areas of Sydney tonight.
     
  45. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The day has only started
     
  46. Adamski

    Adamski Addicted

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    On the radar it looks like the weather is too far north, like here in Canberra, which is being drenched right now.
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the low is transitioning north. I wouldn’t expect too much more out of the system for the resorts today.
    Perhaps another 5cm IMO.
     
  48. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Felt cold walking the dogs just now (Queanbeyan), predicting a temp drop for the mountains through the day touch wood. I think the forecast had today a smidge colder than yesterday as well.
     
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  49. Northwesterly

    Northwesterly Hard Yards

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    I am heading up to Sunny Corner, will let everyone know if anything happens.
     
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