1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Predictions August 2-8th The Hand of Faith

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Kletterer, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    9,507
    Likes Received:
    17,193
    Chance of snow at Corin Forest this weekend? Got someone bugging me to take them to see snow :rolleyes:
     
  2. JayDee78

    JayDee78 One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2012
    Messages:
    170
    Likes Received:
    562
    Location:
    Wollongong
    BOM now has up to 1.9m over the next 3 days.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yes, if you total the accumulative values, but this is not how it’s designed to be read.
    The upper values are ‘possible falls at 25% chance’.
     
    Gregah and mick chopps like this.
  4. JayDee78

    JayDee78 One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2012
    Messages:
    170
    Likes Received:
    562
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Hence “up to”.
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    76,741
    Likes Received:
    61,987
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    *25% chance?
     
  6. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    9,244
    Likes Received:
    5,083
    Location:
    South Coast NSW
    I'd say unlikely. 1c last night. Now 4c. You never know though
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Argh yep, spot on.
    Thanks.
     
  8. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,871
    Likes Received:
    973
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Statistically less than 25% of hitting the upper band on all day three days though, right (cumulative probability or something isn’t it?). But to offset, any excess from one day can make up for another day falling short.
     
  9. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    3,720
    Likes Received:
    5,058
    Location:
    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
    For perspective, that is similar to my chance of dating Megan Gale..... That's how those numbers work hey.
     
    SkiMountaineer and Belly like this.
  10. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    9,244
    Likes Received:
    5,083
    Location:
    South Coast NSW
    That's probably what Shaun Hampson said when he was a boy ....
     
  11. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2019
    Messages:
    1,396
    Likes Received:
    2,336
    Location:
    Warrandyte, VIC


    Thunderstorms are possible across much of inland NSW as well as the central and northern ranges on Friday due to a low pressure system crossing the state. Thunderstorms are already occurring in the far northwest this morning. This activity will move east during the day, reaching the northwest slopes and northern ranges in the late afternoon and evening.

    There is the potential for some thunderstorms to become severe during the afternoon or early evening for a broad area across the northern inland. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts, however heavy bursts of rain or large hail cannot be ruled out.
     
    SMSkier, nfip, Claude Cat and 2 others like this.
  12. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    291
    Likes Received:
    278
    Yr no mount lofty SA showing a wintry mix between 2pm - 6pm

    Currently 2.4 with precipitation (colder up the top)
     
    Homer, POW_hungry and Claude Cat like this.
  13. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    553
    Likes Received:
    1,104
    As of last night a few of the regular posters in here were forecasting considerably lower snow levels than Jane currently is. Has there been a change in sentiment or is Jane calling it quite differently?

     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    No change, IMO.
    As @Donzah has alluded to Jane looks to be Victoria-bias in her calls.

    As it stands snow is already falling to ~1300m so that proves she didn't have NSW in mind when proposing that FC, although I believe she should have been more specific.
     
    Rat trap bindings and Gregah like this.
  15. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,418
    Likes Received:
    1,390
    Location:
    Sydney
    I was going to say Jane is Vic based. From what I understand the cold pool is centred better on NSW. Looking at Vic BOM forecasts that demonstrates the expectation of lower snow levels in NSW as well, with BOM forecasts of ~1400m in Vic versus 1000-1100m in NSW.
     
    Gregah likes this.
  16. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2012
    Messages:
    183
    Likes Received:
    120
    Location:
    ACT

    Attached Files:

    Gregah likes this.
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,644
    Likes Received:
    21,459
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC 18Z output is showing an improvement in Snowline and Dew Points over yesterdays output ( for Sat- Sun)
     
  18. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    553
    Likes Received:
    1,104
    Thredbo top station forecast. Compared to yesterday's more conviction in totals (lower end (50% chance) up 5mm each day) and stronger winds Sunday. Temps about the same.
     

    Attached Files:

    JM72 likes this.
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,644
    Likes Received:
    21,459
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC 0Z Snowline Sat- Sunday showing some faith. Dew points are a tad warmer than one would expect to support those Snowline plots, so could still be some periods of wintery mix kinda stuff imo
     
    nfip and Donzah like this.
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    BoM relegating the snow line a touch. Fair call IMO.


    I am by not means beating the drum but still on for 50-70cm above 1500m for MR Resorts by Monday AM, IMO.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Herewith, EC Ensembles 10am tomorrow to 10am Sunday.
    About as good as you'll see in Aus; circa 40cm in 24 hours, above 14-1500m.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Our coveted 'top model of 8' OCF prog for snow to Saturday 16:00 hours
     
  23. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    3,430
    Likes Received:
    13,531
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    So the BOM have gone all in for Perisher this morning. I don’t ever recall seeing a forecast with an upper range like that for Perisher or thredbo top station (in winter)?
     
  24. buckwheat

    buckwheat One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2000
    Messages:
    1,167
    Likes Received:
    1,045
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW Australia
    My eyes popped out of my head when i saw the same this morning, and thought the same thing. Do not recall a single days forecast being anywhere even close to that.
     
    Adelaidometer likes this.
  25. buckwheat

    buckwheat One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2000
    Messages:
    1,167
    Likes Received:
    1,045
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW Australia
    For anyone driving up today, pack a shovel!
     
    Schwarzer Mann and JM72 like this.
  26. AJS

    AJS One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2014
    Messages:
    667
    Likes Received:
    1,154
    Me too... I’m already in Thredbo until Mon so hoping that prediction (and lower snow lines hold) and will post obs when I can in the other thread.
     
    AussieWhite, nfip and JM72 like this.
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,644
    Likes Received:
    21,459
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC 18 Z showing some( SNOWLINE) kindness for the rest of the weekend.
     
    SMSkier and rocketboy like this.
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,644
    Likes Received:
    21,459
    Location:
    Canberra
    Stay on Topic. Place your observations in the Observations thread please folks
     
    Chowder11, POW_hungry and SMSkier like this.
  29. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2019
    Messages:
    82
    Likes Received:
    150
    I noticed the flood watch has moved the major flooding north to Moruya rather than Bega. That should mean a reduction in snow for the alps and an increase for the Brindabellas in tonight's forecast as the rain bullseye seems to have moved north.
     
  30. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    41,689
    Likes Received:
    44,568
    Location:
    woonona
    Bom walked back the crazy numbers...
    Only 15-35.for Perisher now
     
  31. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2019
    Messages:
    1,143
    Likes Received:
    2,730
    Location:
    Illawarra
  32. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    3,720
    Likes Received:
    5,058
    Location:
    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
    Only :) glass half .........
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    They even stepped up this mornings bulletin which was weird. They were waaay out there. No model had even the lower end of their scale.
     
    Homer likes this.
  34. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    5,087
    Likes Received:
    14,810
    Location:
    Canberra
    And this is the BOM latest for Thredbo

     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    41,689
    Likes Received:
    44,568
    Location:
    woonona
    Cold pool far more dominant tomorrow on 00Z
    Snow in strange places IMO
     
    Winterwolf and Lady Penelope like this.
  36. Adamski

    Adamski Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2009
    Messages:
    782
    Likes Received:
    224
    Location:
    Sydney
    So far this week only the bottom end of the b predicted falls have occurred and nothing more, right?
     
  37. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,871
    Likes Received:
    973
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Bottom end of range is 50% chance, so that would be about what we should expect but I actually think we are well short of that, especially the pumped up numbers from the BOM this morning.
     
  38. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    14,258
    Likes Received:
    17,763
    Location:
    Lower BM's
    Has crept into the forecast for the CTs for tomorrow
     
    SnowBound and Donzah like this.
  39. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,613
    Likes Received:
    1,877
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
  40. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,871
    Likes Received:
    973
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    It must be that the main low is further north now. Far south coast totals have evaporated and more is expected up this way. Not good for the mountains. Two ECL dumps was getting greedy anyway.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Embedded Low a bullseye for Sydney tomorrow
     
    dawooduck likes this.
  42. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    21,132
    Likes Received:
    14,950
    Location:
    Top drawer
    Seriously hard weather to predict it would seem. Even 5 or 6 hours out.
     
  43. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    21,132
    Likes Received:
    14,950
    Location:
    Top drawer
    How’re those predictions going today, BOM?




     
    kylep, Val Desire, JM72 and 1 other person like this.
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah I posted in the NSW thread, which is more pertinent.
    Be warned conditions change drastically after lunch with the arrival of the embedded low.
    Potentially quite destructive to coastal areas of Sydney tonight.
     
  45. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2015
    Messages:
    2,010
    Likes Received:
    4,361
    Location:
    Omega Centauri
    The day has only started
     
  46. Adamski

    Adamski Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2009
    Messages:
    782
    Likes Received:
    224
    Location:
    Sydney
    On the radar it looks like the weather is too far north, like here in Canberra, which is being drenched right now.
     
    Belly likes this.
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,821
    Likes Received:
    30,142
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah the low is transitioning north. I wouldn’t expect too much more out of the system for the resorts today.
    Perhaps another 5cm IMO.
     
  48. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    9,244
    Likes Received:
    5,083
    Location:
    South Coast NSW
    Felt cold walking the dogs just now (Queanbeyan), predicting a temp drop for the mountains through the day touch wood. I think the forecast had today a smidge colder than yesterday as well.
     
    Adamski and Ruz like this.
  49. Northwesterly

    Northwesterly Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2019
    Messages:
    58
    Likes Received:
    134
    Location:
    Stanhope Gardens
    I am heading up to Sunny Corner, will let everyone know if anything happens.
     
    davidg and Untele-whippet like this.