As mentioned in the 15-21st thread, there's a little bonus in the tail that's now on all 3 models. Perhaps worth 20cm? IMO
Upgraded on both GFS & EC today. I think it has legs but the availability of cold air in the upper level low is on a bit of a knife edge at the moment IMO. 20-25cm from me, including Tuesday's follow-up front.
I am always a little cautious about a trans-continental system bringing snow to MR/Vic Alps. A cold-core low such as this one, is about the only surviving system that can work such magic IMO. Looks like it has the gusto at height, so I think it's positive thoughts for now.
Looks good for 15-30cm in the Alps. Monday System. Not bad at all, yet not the coldest thing I have seen. Wednesday System, very cold node, just too far south. Moisture lacking for this too.
GFS 06Z backing off a touch for Tuesday night. Seems very reminiscent of last Friday's clipper, GFS's 'relapse' run perhaps.
It looks a bit flaky. GFS loves it, EC is downgraded. But nothing to suggest it'll be rain YET so, meh.
Remember the OMG its going to snow 50cm from a Inland low hysteria earlier in the season? same deal. Inland lows are like the dodgy uncle at Christmas
I'll write slower in the future Moisture seems to be declining , as does the cold pool depth. Funny that
And proud of it. Truth be told I probably nerd out on WA weather moreso than the Eastern Seaboard, year round. I am now convinced GFS has gone rogue on it. GFS on paper has it almost bombing in the bight. That's a fugazi since this mornings run, to me. The Canuck and EC look a little more on the money - drys out as it runs aground in Western Vic. Still take it for a 5 cent hit IMO.
Cough cough.. Monday or Wednesday Yr ec suggesting Wednesday but not sure how my tempory fever will pan out ..
Yeah, I think the wheels will fall off this thing as it makes landfall around Western Vic. Won't be much left of it by the time it passes the alps. Maybe a couple of cents here too, at best.
I'll back that. Looks good. Some, sub-30km/h winds in the AM for a change! BoM falling into line with the consensus here. Not much more than a few cents this week.
Mount William may very well see 3-5cm on it's peak tomorrow IMO. It looks reasonably cold wet in West Vic tomorrow.
IMO a dusting tomorrow, Wednesday could be dampish in the south below 1600m, not too much in the north.
I know it's not technically covered by this period, however. GFS throws out a tasty 72 hour bone for snow in strange places in NSW. Inbound SE moisture. Little low off the coast. These sort of systems surprise. It will also "OMG it's so cold " in Sydney.
The 'ole blue line tail flick. Pretty dry but otherwise a Barrington Top speshie with that onshore flow into Mid-North NSW and upper-level low, as you say. CT's should get a touch too.
It pretty much depends how the low forms offshore. I've got no idea re SSt off the coast at the moment. However you'd think if we get enough rotation at the surface we might get some showers strong enough to feed into that upper level cold pool. BOM isn't interested . Though they often aren't for localised progs like this.
