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Predictions August 21st-23rd

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As mentioned in the 15-21st thread, there's a little bonus in the tail that's now on all 3 models.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Perhaps worth 20cm?

    IMO
     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not a belieber
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Whatever happened to the optimistic donza?
    Nice avatar BTW.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upgraded on both GFS & EC today. I think it has legs but the availability of cold air in the upper level low is on a bit of a knife edge at the moment IMO. 20-25cm from me, including Tuesday's follow-up front.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Saw this showing up on the end of today's 4 day - looks Mint IMO:

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am always a little cautious about a trans-continental system bringing snow to MR/Vic Alps. A cold-core low such as this one, is about the only surviving system that can work such magic IMO. Looks like it has the gusto at height, so I think it's positive thoughts for now.
    [​IMG]
     
    nfip, Snowy Joey, Donzah and 3 others like this.
  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks to be a bit of warm in behind it so probably brief period ? IMO
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks good for 15-30cm in the Alps.

    Monday System. Not bad at all, yet not the coldest thing I have seen.

    Wednesday System, very cold node, just too far south. Moisture lacking for this too.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06Z backing off a touch for Tuesday night. Seems very reminiscent of last Friday's clipper, GFS's 'relapse' run perhaps.
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    A wise man said.
    Never trust gfs
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    :thumbs:
    I'm looking at EC.
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can get thorouly drunk between GFS runs. With EC i can have a sleep as well.
     
  13. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bars open!
     
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  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tell that to the ensemble.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have Chivas Regal, will travel.
     
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  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You guys still keen on this?
    I'm not
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks a bit flaky.
    GFS loves it, EC is downgraded.

    But nothing to suggest it'll be rain YET so, meh.
     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Remember the OMG its going to snow 50cm from a Inland low hysteria earlier in the season?
    same deal.

    Inland lows are like the dodgy uncle at Christmas
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dodgy uncle from the West... Go easy mate, I am a sandgroper born and bred.
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I knew there was something good about you! ;)
     
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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll write slower in the future


    Moisture seems to be declining , as does the cold pool depth.
    Funny that
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And proud of it.:thumbs: Truth be told I probably nerd out on WA weather moreso than the Eastern Seaboard, year round.
    I am now convinced GFS has gone rogue on it. GFS on paper has it almost bombing in the bight. That's a fugazi since this mornings run, to me.

    The Canuck and EC look a little more on the money - drys out as it runs aground in Western Vic. Still take it for a 5 cent hit IMO.
     
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  23. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Tuesday , 22/8/17 at Mt. Stirling is looking good.
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like 5-10cm on EC tonight.
    More in the south, less in the north.
    IMO
     
  25. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict I'll be there Monday
     
  26. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    The River spur has some good cover and I have not been up that route before at Mt. Stirling.
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Monday has stuff all on the last GFS run IMO Tuesday looking finer than BOM seems to think IMO
     
  28. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Cough cough.. Monday or Wednesday
    Yr ec suggesting Wednesday but not sure how my tempory fever will pan out ..
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Early Wednesday AM is looking like a clipper. Few cents at best IMO.
     
  30. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Hard Yards

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    Looks like the few cm on monday are basically gone now too. Is that how youre reading it too?
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, I think the wheels will fall off this thing as it makes landfall around Western Vic. Won't be much left of it by the time it passes the alps. Maybe a couple of cents here too, at best.
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tuesday may see favourable conditions for some BC touring .IMO
     
    #32 Kletterer, Aug 19, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2017
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll back that. Looks good. Some, sub-30km/h winds in the AM for a change!
    [​IMG]
    BoM falling into line with the consensus here. Not much more than a few cents this week.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mount William may very well see 3-5cm on it's peak tomorrow IMO. It looks reasonably cold wet in West Vic tomorrow.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And inbound from the North, quite a unique scenario for Western Vic tomorrow AM.
     
  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow in spa country?
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Around 4 degrees and rain in Horsham overnight according to Weatherzone :eek:.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, I am thinking Mt Macedon peak will see a little sprinkling too.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's Central & North District Forecast for tomorrow:
    Between 7-11am would be the cold air here IMO.
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO a dusting tomorrow, Wednesday could be dampish in the south below 1600m, not too much in the north.
     
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  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Tuesday 22/8/17 at Mt. Stirling is looking like fresh snow and sunshine!
     
  42. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    snow for tassie again above 1100m for sure marginal for the mainland today
     
  43. newman

    newman Addicted

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    Anything coming behind this?
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    A couple of cms on the weekend, but otherwise nothing much.
     
  45. Langfi

    Langfi Hard Yards

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    Snowing nicely at falls, hoping for it to continue long enough.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gorrne in the next hour of so, IMO.
     
  47. newman

    newman Addicted

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    Cheers mate.
     
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know it's not technically covered by this period, however.

    GFS throws out a tasty 72 hour bone for snow in strange places in NSW.
    Inbound SE moisture. Little low off the coast.
    These sort of systems surprise.
    It will also "OMG it's so cold " in Sydney.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 'ole blue line tail flick.
    Pretty dry but otherwise a Barrington Top speshie with that onshore flow into Mid-North NSW and upper-level low, as you say.
    CT's should get a touch too.
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It pretty much depends how the low forms offshore.
    I've got no idea re SSt off the coast at the moment. However you'd think if we get enough rotation at the surface we might get some showers strong enough to feed into that upper level cold pool.
    BOM isn't interested . Though they often aren't for localised progs like this.