When for? Heading up to Blackheath and then on to the Oberon plateau on Friday night (staying out there for the weekend)
Yeah, SSTA's are flaring off the coast there. 3 warm eddies dotted evenly down the coast. It will deliver exactly that with some onshore flow (we saw this happen on Saturday night here in Sydney, albeit chiefly coastal).
GFS is bullish about the gradient cause of the trailing high pushing into the Low. But. Its GFS and she loves Tasman lows.
Not much more than 2-5cm IMO. Front has a hard time against that high. Cold air yes, moisture meh. Southern resorts will do best.
Buller (and lesser extent, BB) could easily pick-up 10-15 cents. But that's as good as it could get IMO.
I'm still worried about temperatures for both these mountains (at for portions of when the moisture is about). IMO
Sneaky pre-frontal (westerly) band progged on GFS & EC early/mid arvo; that's rain to me. The follow up on dusk is on a knife edge. I like Buller's chance over Baw Baw's.
I think a sneaky leaky 10 cm on the main range with no wind is better than your average corn August day. Really goes with the two sunny days after that.
18Z GFS & EC looking harmonious tonight. Snow above 1600m and dropping from 4-5pm IMO. 5-10cm for Buller tomorrow, ~5cm for the other majors.
BoM - NSW, Mid Nor Coast Personally, I see it as more to 1300/1400m, but it's still possible in places like Polblue & Devil's Hole Camps early Friday AM.
Low looks to stall to the East of Hobart, TAS in the next few hours. If it lingers, reasonable chance of 3-5cm on Kunanyi (Mount Wellington) throughout tomorrow.
Is this upgrading or what Temps seem good. Not sure why every one has an ad-version to BOM ACCES R Charts
Does look like an upgrade. Can't see it panning out this way for Hotham and Falls though based on the direction the current rain band is taking (IMO). Looking like a 'solid clipper' for Buller though...
GFS has never really been into this one for the Alps. The trend has been downgrade in my eyes, including today's 00Z run.