Predictions August 22 to 25 system

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by kiter, Aug 19, 2014.

  1. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Showing up on gfs . Fizzes on access. Any thoughts. Sorry not sure how to paste maps ,instigation not usually my forte ,but thinking of making plans for next week if there is a chance of 10 to 15 cm in it and no prefrontal r--n.
     
  2. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Likely to be shortlived whatever occurs if anything, otherwise showers followed by a snow dusting IMO.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As per the BBQ thread this morning, looking like a clear snow event on Sunday, below 1800m
    Perhaps 10mm IMO
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG] [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    500hPa temps not too bad in the south but 850hPa temps quite warm.
    Not much to get excited right at the moment IMO
     
  6. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    that is a monster low behind it though. id love to see if that high shifts further north
     
  7. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    The thickness pattern renders out quite differently on Accuweather, than it does on WZ.
    That said, the 850 temps on ecmwf.int aren't promising.
     
  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    hmm, wandering cold pools.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Risky to put cash on those sort of cold pools man. I would be hanging back on this one.
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that's kinda what I was getting at. Unreliable at best.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nowada and Pollo_ski like this.
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    The cold pool at 500hPa remains in place. 850 hPa temps are still on the warm side. IMO
     
  13. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting after an incredible dry spell in SEQ we're looking at some real rain
     
  14. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Gonna be over on tuesday. Drum up some pow for us eh aussie.
     
  15. Endless_Winter

    Endless_Winter One of Us

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    Chance of pow... rather low :cry:.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    "Sierra Cement" above 1800m. IMO
     
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  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Funny :deadhorse:
    Funny I thought Buller was below 1800m. Sorry CC, couldn't help it.

    Certainly the temps at 2500m (-6 c)suggest snow on Sunday.

    GFS hinting at a substantial system developing after the ECL. Like on the 1st September. Would be consistent with this year, where the first day of the month has been the best day of the season.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That system is being discussed in the BBQ thread. Not looking anywhere near as good on the 12 or 18UTC runs.
     
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    That was the 18 UTC chart for today. Next one is still loading, should be out in 30 mins
     
  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    After the first ECL produced snow and lots of it above 1900m the nextone will deliver snow as well.Then the Polar lows will have enough of the ECL dominance in the last week and future week, and hit back with a massive polar in jection.

    Sounds like a good narrative to me :cheers:

    The BBQ thread is a bit off topic IMO, can we start a forum with 1st september date. Maybe wait a day or two
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sure. Don't like starting anything that's much more than 240 hours out ..
     
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    More wet snow from the North East IMO. But Monday should be good.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Just hang then as EC its bit hungover after all the ECL's and not picking it up.
     
  24. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Interesting. The word sleet has been used...

     
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  25. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Someone at the bom bought a thesaurus
     
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  26. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agreed, could turn out to be a non event.
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might be an ob but this from Grasshopper sums it up.[​IMG]
     
  28. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    sept 1 is the return of THE LWT it will be a matter of how much oomph it has left. By my count I won't be surprised if it drifts out by a day or two.
     
  29. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Here's what we need; a real LWT with nice regular hexagonal lobes:

    [​IMG]

    Been looking for an "end of month" system for a while now. Might finally be solidifying:

    [​IMG]
     
  30. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Guarantee it folks it will be a go'er.
    I had a trip booked for the 2nd weekend of September, but have had to can it as I'm have an arthriscope on my knee so therefore wont be able to ski again this year.
    Knowing my luck it will be SnowMaggeddon '14 September addition.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    ok, stay on topic for this date range.
     
  32. Ultra

    Ultra One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    i am predicting the low forming west of adelaide will deepen as it passes the straight, and bring a huge dump and very cold artic air up with it..
     
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  33. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Interesting prediction
     
  34. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Think positive:)
     
  35. Ultra

    Ultra One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    only thinking that due to the high over us now rising to 1040 Hpa, quite high, and wheres theres a big number high, there is usually a correspondingly deep Low. I cant see 2 high number high pressure systems merging without a deep low somewhere nearby at the same time.