Predictions August 24-26th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    This has been hanging in on EC for a few runs.

     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Sure has, we could be in for a late-August treat.
     
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  4. skidazza

    skidazza Active Member

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    Jane is bullish about the end of this period - after some heavy r**n:
    The next system is a big one. Upper level energy will be forced over the interior of the continent by the stationary system over us this weekend. This will interact with tropical moisture and let a low form. This comes towards us with heavy rain later on Wednesday, then moves to our east with heavy snow on Thursday and Friday. So, this will start horrible, then turn very good.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ..but spot on, as it stands IMO.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I mentioned this in the epic thread this AM:
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO I'm not seeing a horrible start on EC.
    Cold for the whole period. Well at this stage.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Fair call.
    Just see EC as the overly-optimistic one here ATM. It's got a lot of rotation overland on EC (Tuesday/Wednesday), so just can't see it cooling enough until it reaches the SE.
    Models will be fully across it by the weekend, I think.
     
  9. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Models seem to be getting a better handle on it.

    Earlier models seemed to show a pineapple low coming from the NW with a mystery cold air injection.

    Now it looks more like a Southern Ocean low heading NE over SA, picking up some moisture from the North and then moving ESE across the ALPS.

    Watching the Sattelite, you can see a tonn of cold air being fed north, just west of WA so if the cold pool is large enough, then this could still be mostly snow above 1500m by the time it hits the Alps.
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    For sure. And I'm only going on what EC is currently showing.
    The whole period is still a little problematic in my view, but I'm pretty sure something will happen (good or bad)!
     
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  11. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    One thing looks quite certain - a broad area of low pressure over Southern continental Australia. Ticking time bomb...
     
  12. Scoober

    Scoober Active Member

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    Don't know whether to be scared or happy o_O
     
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  13. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Is weather, is good :)

    If we had a 2m+ base then would be happy for the blockers to settle in and ride out the spring with a few top ups but as we are struggling, im happy to roll the dice and hope for a big dump.
     
  14. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    That looks better for the southern resorts!
     
  15. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    So much can go wrong with this system. I predict much anxiety as it unfolds.
     
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  16. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Enjoy.
    Getting harder to post:) This has been on the radar for awhile now those of you who follow the 10mb wave patten across the S. Hemisphere would have seen wave number 2.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    Wont be a good time to travel.;)
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Love that simulated IR plot!:nerd:
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ...And that EC 500hPa Temp model gives good reason as to where this beast is getting it's cold air from.:eek:
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC 00Z sticking solidly with this one. Rock solid.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Serious ECL there.
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Still a fair bit of divergence in the models. GFS has that low passing further south. IMO
     
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  22. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

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    Is this good or bad? ECL have not been our friend this year

    Can you put some comments on what you think may happen here. Already booked so won't shoot you down if your wrong
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Lots of rotating moisture amongst the cold air. It's got a 'large range in falls' written all over it. 20-60cm is not out of the question if it holds strong IMO.
     
    #23 POW_hungry, Aug 17, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2016
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  24. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    Fluctuating snow levels
    Wet snow
    Snow at high elevations only
    Liquid snow
    I hate ECLs... Nothing good ever comes of them. Except that one time... Meh...
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    They are hard to predict. Generally I'm not a fan.
     
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  26. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Thank Jeff. Keep up the good work.

    It is truely a pleasure to see the models we dream about getting access to.

    I have been telling my crew that a beast is on the way.

    Snow or no snow, this is building into one for the books.

    I lost control of my reasoning and predictions once i saw solid Antarctic mainland fetch for 4 days. Never seen it so cant predict it.

    Strap in and enjoy the rude..... shock
     
  27. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    The deep fetch was actually being driven north mid indian for 4 days and then drifting west along the top edge of the High sitting just east of South Africa.

    It has built a massive pool of cold air a lot further north than it should and its heading our way.

    Enjoy
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It's a bugger with the EC model intervals but it's 3hPa off being a 'bombing low' by the time it reaches the Tasman. From 995hPa on the NSW/SA border to 976hPa on the NSW sou-coast, according to the 00z run.

    Even some good cold/dry stuff for the following weekend.
    [​IMG]
    CMC off it.
     
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  29. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    EC on roids
    80kts Gusts = 148kmh that is big, snow accumulation plots over 24hrs is 68cm or 2 feet+atm.

    [​IMG]
     
    #29 jeffx, Aug 17, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2016
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    If it pans out how EC has it now, NSW and Baw Baw will really get hammered. Could easily see 50-70cm for those.
    Other Victorian resorts between 30cm (Buller) and 40cm+ for Falls and Hotham. IMO

    But given the divergence in models I'd be very cautious about any predictions right now.
     
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  31. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Not predicting just showing model.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  32. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Like most systems this season, freezing levels will be on a knife-edge IMO. Could see 20mm of rain and 20cm of snow, or just 40cm of snow (figures are just an example, not a prediction).
     
  33. Wally81

    Wally81 Active Member
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    Major flooding for the North East and East Gippsland CC? Rafting season is almost upon us!
     
  34. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'd suggest flooding on NSW coast - Sydney and south. East Gippsland would certainly get a fair bit as well.
    Again - ECLs are so hard to predict, so where it actually ends up (if it even eventuates) is in question.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS a much more traditional strong low system rather than an inland / ECL complex.


     
  37. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Been waiting on this ens, post this and leave it a few days.:)
    [​IMG]
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    All a bit weird and wander-y
     
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  40. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    Very LGTG Like weather! OR Licorace All Sorts! LOL
     
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  41. Driftwood

    Driftwood Active Member

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    UKMET still hedging between EC and GFS @ 144hrs.

    [​IMG]
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    A guess at the standard deviation on this ?
     
  43. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    (n-1) 250 / (5-1) = 250 / 4 = 62.5
     
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  44. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Is that a algorithm for good wine?
     
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  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    No. i just like a good P value :D
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Worth noting GFS 06Z has the cut-off to ride a little further North and tighter, than previous runs. Which looks more favorable for the alps and hints a shift towards EC's scenario on the 12Z run in the morning.
    [​IMG]
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yr.No Sydney Forecast (based on EC scenario). Goodbye Spring temps with 13/14C maximums
    [​IMG]
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    FWIW, some pretty out there totals for mid-next-week for Perisher on Yr.No, but even if we saw half of it we'd be looking at peak depths for the season IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC12z getting organised now. Downgrade on cool air and a little swift now but far more realistic IMO.
    Divergence is still there between EC and GFS but both seem more practical in their progression. GFS cut-off in Bass Strait looks to linger and deliver more sustained falls IMO.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  50. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    EC still bullish in terms of forecast snowfall at Hotham for this event