Predictions August 24-26th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    This has been hanging in on EC for a few runs.

     
    Snow Blowey and POW_hungry like this.
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Sure has, we could be in for a late-August treat.
     
    Snowy Joey and Claude Cat like this.
  4. skidazza

    skidazza Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2013
    Messages:
    115
    Likes Received:
    96
    Jane is bullish about the end of this period - after some heavy r**n:
    The next system is a big one. Upper level energy will be forced over the interior of the continent by the stationary system over us this weekend. This will interact with tropical moisture and let a low form. This comes towards us with heavy rain later on Wednesday, then moves to our east with heavy snow on Thursday and Friday. So, this will start horrible, then turn very good.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    ..but spot on, as it stands IMO.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I mentioned this in the epic thread this AM:
     
    jonathanc and skidazza like this.
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO I'm not seeing a horrible start on EC.
    Cold for the whole period. Well at this stage.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Fair call.
    Just see EC as the overly-optimistic one here ATM. It's got a lot of rotation overland on EC (Tuesday/Wednesday), so just can't see it cooling enough until it reaches the SE.
    Models will be fully across it by the weekend, I think.
     
  9. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Models seem to be getting a better handle on it.

    Earlier models seemed to show a pineapple low coming from the NW with a mystery cold air injection.

    Now it looks more like a Southern Ocean low heading NE over SA, picking up some moisture from the North and then moving ESE across the ALPS.

    Watching the Sattelite, you can see a tonn of cold air being fed north, just west of WA so if the cold pool is large enough, then this could still be mostly snow above 1500m by the time it hits the Alps.
     
    1st_King_of_QBN likes this.
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    For sure. And I'm only going on what EC is currently showing.
    The whole period is still a little problematic in my view, but I'm pretty sure something will happen (good or bad)!
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  11. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,961
    Likes Received:
    984
    One thing looks quite certain - a broad area of low pressure over Southern continental Australia. Ticking time bomb...
     
  12. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

    Joined:
    May 12, 2014
    Messages:
    454
    Likes Received:
    857
    Location:
    Gosford
    Don't know whether to be scared or happy o_O
     
    Wardy likes this.
  13. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Is weather, is good :)

    If we had a 2m+ base then would be happy for the blockers to settle in and ride out the spring with a few top ups but as we are struggling, im happy to roll the dice and hope for a big dump.
     
  14. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    41,172
    Likes Received:
    8,889
    Location:
    Narbethong, Vic
    That looks better for the southern resorts!
     
  15. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,122
    Likes Received:
    503
    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    So much can go wrong with this system. I predict much anxiety as it unfolds.
     
    MickM, DidSurfNowSki, fmdc9 and 5 others like this.
  16. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    Enjoy.
    Getting harder to post:) This has been on the radar for awhile now those of you who follow the 10mb wave patten across the S. Hemisphere would have seen wave number 2.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    Wont be a good time to travel.;)
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Love that simulated IR plot!:nerd:
     
    Karicta likes this.
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    ...And that EC 500hPa Temp model gives good reason as to where this beast is getting it's cold air from.:eek:
     
    Karicta likes this.
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC 00Z sticking solidly with this one. Rock solid.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Serious ECL there.
     
    Majikthise and SnowdOva like this.
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Still a fair bit of divergence in the models. GFS has that low passing further south. IMO
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  22. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2015
    Messages:
    207
    Likes Received:
    252
    Location:
    Curly
    Is this good or bad? ECL have not been our friend this year

    Can you put some comments on what you think may happen here. Already booked so won't shoot you down if your wrong
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Lots of rotating moisture amongst the cold air. It's got a 'large range in falls' written all over it. 20-60cm is not out of the question if it holds strong IMO.
     
    #23 POW_hungry, Aug 17, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2016
    SnowdOva likes this.
  24. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,122
    Likes Received:
    503
    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    Fluctuating snow levels
    Wet snow
    Snow at high elevations only
    Liquid snow
    I hate ECLs... Nothing good ever comes of them. Except that one time... Meh...
     
    snowblowa and 1st_King_of_QBN like this.
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    They are hard to predict. Generally I'm not a fan.
     
    1st_King_of_QBN and Wardy like this.
  26. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Thank Jeff. Keep up the good work.

    It is truely a pleasure to see the models we dream about getting access to.

    I have been telling my crew that a beast is on the way.

    Snow or no snow, this is building into one for the books.

    I lost control of my reasoning and predictions once i saw solid Antarctic mainland fetch for 4 days. Never seen it so cant predict it.

    Strap in and enjoy the rude..... shock
     
  27. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    The deep fetch was actually being driven north mid indian for 4 days and then drifting west along the top edge of the High sitting just east of South Africa.

    It has built a massive pool of cold air a lot further north than it should and its heading our way.

    Enjoy
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It's a bugger with the EC model intervals but it's 3hPa off being a 'bombing low' by the time it reaches the Tasman. From 995hPa on the NSW/SA border to 976hPa on the NSW sou-coast, according to the 00z run.

    Even some good cold/dry stuff for the following weekend.
    [​IMG]
    CMC off it.
     
    Driftwood likes this.
  29. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    EC on roids
    80kts Gusts = 148kmh that is big, snow accumulation plots over 24hrs is 68cm or 2 feet+atm.

    [​IMG]
     
    #29 jeffx, Aug 17, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2016
    Kletterer and Claude Cat like this.
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    If it pans out how EC has it now, NSW and Baw Baw will really get hammered. Could easily see 50-70cm for those.
    Other Victorian resorts between 30cm (Buller) and 40cm+ for Falls and Hotham. IMO

    But given the divergence in models I'd be very cautious about any predictions right now.
     
    Roarkie and Snowy Joey like this.
  31. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    Not predicting just showing model.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  32. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    Like most systems this season, freezing levels will be on a knife-edge IMO. Could see 20mm of rain and 20cm of snow, or just 40cm of snow (figures are just an example, not a prediction).
     
  33. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2010
    Messages:
    545
    Likes Received:
    364
    Location:
    Franga
    Major flooding for the North East and East Gippsland CC? Rafting season is almost upon us!
     
  34. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    5,767
    Likes Received:
    3,778
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I'd suggest flooding on NSW coast - Sydney and south. East Gippsland would certainly get a fair bit as well.
    Again - ECLs are so hard to predict, so where it actually ends up (if it even eventuates) is in question.
     
    Wally likes this.
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    GFS a much more traditional strong low system rather than an inland / ECL complex.


     
  37. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    Been waiting on this ens, post this and leave it a few days.:)
    [​IMG]
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,472
    Likes Received:
    16,638
    Location:
    Canberra
  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,592
    Likes Received:
    10,119
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    All a bit weird and wander-y
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  40. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    5,767
    Likes Received:
    3,778
    Very LGTG Like weather! OR Licorace All Sorts! LOL
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  41. Driftwood

    Driftwood Addicted

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Messages:
    178
    Likes Received:
    144
    UKMET still hedging between EC and GFS @ 144hrs.

    [​IMG]
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,472
    Likes Received:
    16,638
    Location:
    Canberra
    A guess at the standard deviation on this ?
     
  43. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2016
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    462
    (n-1) 250 / (5-1) = 250 / 4 = 62.5
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  44. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,782
    Is that a algorithm for good wine?
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,472
    Likes Received:
    16,638
    Location:
    Canberra
    No. i just like a good P value :D
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Worth noting GFS 06Z has the cut-off to ride a little further North and tighter, than previous runs. Which looks more favorable for the alps and hints a shift towards EC's scenario on the 12Z run in the morning.
    [​IMG]
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yr.No Sydney Forecast (based on EC scenario). Goodbye Spring temps with 13/14C maximums
    [​IMG]
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    FWIW, some pretty out there totals for mid-next-week for Perisher on Yr.No, but even if we saw half of it we'd be looking at peak depths for the season IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
    Snowy Joey and IAB like this.
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC12z getting organised now. Downgrade on cool air and a little swift now but far more realistic IMO.
    Divergence is still there between EC and GFS but both seem more practical in their progression. GFS cut-off in Bass Strait looks to linger and deliver more sustained falls IMO.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  50. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,645
    EC still bullish in terms of forecast snowfall at Hotham for this event