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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.
This has been hanging in on EC for a few runs.
Sure has, we could be in for a late-August treat.
Jane is bullish about the end of this period - after some heavy r**n:
The next system is a big one. Upper level energy will be forced over the interior of the continent by the stationary system over us this weekend. This will interact with tropical moisture and let a low form. This comes towards us with heavy rain later on Wednesday, then moves to our east with heavy snow on Thursday and Friday. So, this will start horrible, then turn very good.
..but spot on, as it stands IMO.
I mentioned this in the epic thread this AM:
IMO I'm not seeing a horrible start on EC.
Cold for the whole period. Well at this stage.
Just see EC as the overly-optimistic one here ATM. It's got a lot of rotation overland on EC (Tuesday/Wednesday), so just can't see it cooling enough until it reaches the SE.
Models will be fully across it by the weekend, I think.
Models seem to be getting a better handle on it.
Earlier models seemed to show a pineapple low coming from the NW with a mystery cold air injection.
Now it looks more like a Southern Ocean low heading NE over SA, picking up some moisture from the North and then moving ESE across the ALPS.
Watching the Sattelite, you can see a tonn of cold air being fed north, just west of WA so if the cold pool is large enough, then this could still be mostly snow above 1500m by the time it hits the Alps.
For sure. And I'm only going on what EC is currently showing.
The whole period is still a little problematic in my view, but I'm pretty sure something will happen (good or bad)!
One thing looks quite certain - a broad area of low pressure over Southern continental Australia. Ticking time bomb...
Don't know whether to be scared or happy
Is weather, is good
If we had a 2m+ base then would be happy for the blockers to settle in and ride out the spring with a few top ups but as we are struggling, im happy to roll the dice and hope for a big dump.
That looks better for the southern resorts!
So much can go wrong with this system. I predict much anxiety as it unfolds.
Getting harder to post This has been on the radar for awhile now those of you who follow the 10mb wave patten across the S. Hemisphere would have seen wave number 2.
Wont be a good time to travel.
Love that simulated IR plot!
...And that EC 500hPa Temp model gives good reason as to where this beast is getting it's cold air from.
EC 00Z sticking solidly with this one. Rock solid.
Serious ECL there.
Still a fair bit of divergence in the models. GFS has that low passing further south. IMO
Is this good or bad? ECL have not been our friend this year
Can you put some comments on what you think may happen here. Already booked so won't shoot you down if your wrong
Lots of rotating moisture amongst the cold air. It's got a 'large range in falls' written all over it. 20-60cm is not out of the question if it holds strong IMO.
Fluctuating snow levels
Snow at high elevations only
I hate ECLs... Nothing good ever comes of them. Except that one time... Meh...
They are hard to predict. Generally I'm not a fan.
Thank Jeff. Keep up the good work.
It is truely a pleasure to see the models we dream about getting access to.
I have been telling my crew that a beast is on the way.
Snow or no snow, this is building into one for the books.
I lost control of my reasoning and predictions once i saw solid Antarctic mainland fetch for 4 days. Never seen it so cant predict it.
Strap in and enjoy the rude..... shock
The deep fetch was actually being driven north mid indian for 4 days and then drifting west along the top edge of the High sitting just east of South Africa.
It has built a massive pool of cold air a lot further north than it should and its heading our way.
It's a bugger with the EC model intervals but it's 3hPa off being a 'bombing low' by the time it reaches the Tasman. From 995hPa on the NSW/SA border to 976hPa on the NSW sou-coast, according to the 00z run.
Even some good cold/dry stuff for the following weekend.
CMC off it.
EC on roids
80kts Gusts = 148kmh that is big, snow accumulation plots over 24hrs is 68cm or 2 feet+atm.
If it pans out how EC has it now, NSW and Baw Baw will really get hammered. Could easily see 50-70cm for those.
Other Victorian resorts between 30cm (Buller) and 40cm+ for Falls and Hotham. IMO
But given the divergence in models I'd be very cautious about any predictions right now.
Not predicting just showing model.
Like most systems this season, freezing levels will be on a knife-edge IMO. Could see 20mm of rain and 20cm of snow, or just 40cm of snow (figures are just an example, not a prediction).
Major flooding for the North East and East Gippsland CC? Rafting season is almost upon us!
I'd suggest flooding on NSW coast - Sydney and south. East Gippsland would certainly get a fair bit as well.
Again - ECLs are so hard to predict, so where it actually ends up (if it even eventuates) is in question.
GFS a much more traditional strong low system rather than an inland / ECL complex.
Been waiting on this ens, post this and leave it a few days.
All a bit weird and wander-y
Very LGTG Like weather! OR Licorace All Sorts!
UKMET still hedging between EC and GFS @ 144hrs.
A guess at the standard deviation on this ?
(n-1) 250 / (5-1) = 250 / 4 = 62.5
Is that a algorithm for good wine?
No. i just like a good P value
Worth noting GFS 06Z has the cut-off to ride a little further North and tighter, than previous runs. Which looks more favorable for the alps and hints a shift towards EC's scenario on the 12Z run in the morning.
Yr.No Sydney Forecast (based on EC scenario). Goodbye Spring temps with 13/14C maximums
FWIW, some pretty out there totals for mid-next-week for Perisher on Yr.No, but even if we saw half of it we'd be looking at peak depths for the season IMO.
EC12z getting organised now. Downgrade on cool air and a little swift now but far more realistic IMO.
Divergence is still there between EC and GFS but both seem more practical in their progression. GFS cut-off in Bass Strait looks to linger and deliver more sustained falls IMO.
EC still bullish in terms of forecast snowfall at Hotham for this event