Predictions August 24-26th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    12Z with a train of ull systems moving over the continent, may need to extend the dates, If this is to verify may be historic.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The follow-up is looking substantial, no doubt about it. Just needs to clear a few systems (this weekend) to really lay a solid claim.
    A few more days I think.
     
  3. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Attack of the Lows
     
  5. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it comes off……#Boobzilla…..#Ozbra…..#Alpenmotorboat
     
  6. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    looks likely the EC is coming into line with the CFS plots with the anom. In layman terms
    a polar-gyre.
     
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  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Twin Vortex Storm
     
    #57 7wombathead, Aug 18, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2016
  8. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tripple Nipple
     
  9. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    #alpenmotorboat for me
     
  10. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Just your standard double (triple) nodal system.
     
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  12. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    models on the grass
     
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  13. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Jellybeans1000 the charts you're posting seem to have a 'valid' date of Fri 19th. This thread is for 24th to 26th. There is another thread for 19th to whatever.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry clicked the wrong thread
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Post moved to the right thread. Thanks.
     
  16. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wandering cut off cold pools are always the hardest to predict
     
  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Indeed, Captain Obvious.
    ;)
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not sure what are worse. ECLs or cold pools.
     
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  19. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I vote ECLs, especially when they run multiple cores and they start randomly shifting intensity between the cores.

    Remember tracking one last year off Cenco. One core would cross the coast and then a new one would develop offshore and repeat.

    But the wanderers are also very tough
     
  20. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Twortex?
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still wobbling around a fair bit on GFS

     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    More of a bombing ECL on the Canadian model

     
  23. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    GFS has very heavy precip for Wednesday morning over Vic alps. Temps a little marginal but 700HPa temps are cold so it could be alright.
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Might have to TM that.
     
  25. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    540 extending into qlds on the run.
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As does GFS.
    Actually GFS and EC don't seem that far apart now.
     
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  27. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    confluence of models a very good thing
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Despite EC's optimism I see it very unlikely that we'll get away without some pre-frontal here. Both EC & GFS suggest that NW inbound has a fair bit of overland travel time and partly influenced by NW surface trough.

    I think GFS has it progged right. Wednesday morning could be line ball IMO
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC was looking marginal for Wednesday late morning, early afternoon on this morning's run.
    IMO
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saw that.
    Just thought I'd mention it as although it's big system for snow it certainly won't be short of the usual hardships (marginal temps and windhold etc.).
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still a lot of water to go under the bridge before this one is locked in IMO.
    Lets see how this weekend shakes out first.
     
  32. DbSki

    DbSki Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit worried about that water under bridge part CC.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's 'snowy' water under the bridge until then!;)
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well, we got a bit of water tomorrow ;)
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday EC00Z goodness.
    [​IMG]
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You have to love that pressure.
     
  37. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    I do I promise!
     
  38. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I have to admit its proving to be difficult to contain excitement - we just have to hope it is not cursed by the slip and slide we have seen this august
     
    #88 seekingpow, Aug 18, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2016
  39. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    New Laptop finally up and running so can post pretty pictures again.

    I like the Multi Headed beast sitting off the Antarctic coast centred at 80E.

    Lots of potential for it to feed off itself and for the Low bringing up the rear to take a nice slingshot ride straight at Adelaide and then bomb nicely over the Alps.

    [​IMG]
     
  40. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Twortextm ;)

    The Two Headed Twerking Vortex..... Twerking for the wobble :)
     
  41. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    If she comes of like that, then The Ben is in for a pearler? Nice cold temps with winds and moisture feeding in from the East.
     
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  42. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hope it's cold enough other wise " Oh sh,,,t "
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    An upgrade on EC comes in the form of it broadening (longitudinally) and deepening closer, off the NSW Sou-coast at 192 hrs. IMO
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, temps are the one to watch ATM IMO. The models are falling into line and are all calling something big so now its a watch and see for a few days to see how it settles.

    But a chart like that is pure Thredbo P@rn.... Cold Easterly flow banging straight up against the Main Range right over the Bo... Will make that 80cent (claimed) easterly system at the beginning of the season look like a dusting IMO.

    But long long way to go yet.
     
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  45. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Date range may also need to be extended looking at whats sitting under Southern WA.

    Executive decision for CC. Do we combine to minimise confusion or start another for the 28th?

    Still a few days up the sleeve to see how it pans out.
     
  46. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    If you live in tassie this may be inappropriate.

    [​IMG]

     
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  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    When is it going to clear proper to get back in to the Alpine??????
     
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  48. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Im just sitting back enjoying the forecast weather. Going to be quite the show!:metun:
     
  49. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Sept?
     
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  50. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like this pattern I don't have to feel bad for missing out due to heavy work committments. Should be lots of snow for epic late september.
     
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