Predictions August 24-26th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Funny how the vibe has done a 180 degree turn from yesterday's feelings :) Lets hope next week can deliver. Long live season 2016.
     
  2. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    we are well overdue for a late season. Remember how warm it was into winter this year. Set up for a big end IMO.
     
  3. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Canuck:)[​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #103 jeffx, Aug 18, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2016
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh my
     
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  5. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Still don't like it. When was the last time you saw something like this come off? Never. Except for that one time... Meh...
     
  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Strategic Planning.:cool:

    Had some amazing snow corn powder on SE aspects Sunday to Tuesday out the back on the southern part of the Main Range. It was super dry corn pow up high even on Tuesday morning, which was surprising given that it was quite warm on the Thredbo AWS. I did not get out of my down jacket and gortex gear in the sun. Got to milk those NW winds.
     
    #106 7wombathead, Aug 18, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2016
  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    or justifying laziness!
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 540 line .
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There will be downgrades, there will be rain etc...

    IMO it's inline with the season's trend system-to-system, albeit on a larger scale system;
    Wednesday looks mediocre and Thursday looks fecking amazing on the 00Z/06Z runs. Friday looks like some added bonuses.
     
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  10. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yep its very cutoff from the south. So still a bit iffy.

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Gone
    In line with big events that just dont seem to get the rub of the green in June and August. Oh well it will come back again. I Hope.
     
  12. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    540 has not gone kletterer GFS06z is showing a broad 540 cell.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
    #112 jeffx, Aug 18, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2016
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  13. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That would make me sooooooooo happy.
     
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  14. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    YR/NO seems to have downgraded for this period heaps (Buller)
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    12Z EC downgrades cold air and as I said yesterday Wesdnesday not looking pretty (marginal temps/rain) whilst Thursday looks solid. Friday is a good day of top ups.
    [​IMG]
    GFS upgrade in moisture IMO, but agrees Wednesday not looking good.
    [​IMG]
    Thursday... Looking big for snow on EC & GFS
    [​IMG]
     
    #115 POW_hungry, Aug 19, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2016
  16. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks interesting either way. If some of that rain comes off across NSW we will have some serious flooding.
     
  17. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looks awesome this morning 168hrs to 216hrs.
     
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  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon there's a big one brewing for about 2 weeks time, so about 5-7 days after this one.
     
  19. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Deep Low pressure + negative @850mb = dumpage. Jane is keen, says there is just enough coldness in the cell to produce at village height after intial rain on Wednesday. IMO as long as it's negative 1-2 at 850mb, the low pressure will do the rest, I expect BIG falls out of this IMO
     
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  21. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Is that all inside or out of the 540 line? Can see it skirting the outside of image
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nope, that's the dicey part of the system on Tuesday PM/Wed AM.
    AXSG seems overstated compared to other models IMO, but yes, doesn't look pretty for Wednesday.
     
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  23. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    EC 12z still forecasting the deep bombing low, as other have mentioned ie CC/ Pow_Hungry expect to see some variables
    with the runs handing this polar gyre. They are difficult at the best of times.:)
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep 540 line partly over on access but under on gfs
    Its going to be edge of your seat stuff. Could go either way at the moment. I really hope Jane is right, she has the knowledge and experience so I think it's going to a great end to August.
     
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  25. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    540 is not the problem.

    [​IMG]
     
  26. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Will either be Spring skiing or mountain biking in two weeks
     
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Being furthest to the west, Buller has least to gain from a bombing low. Sometimes this is a good thing (if they are too warm).
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    May need to extend the date range . Some 528 goodness followed by some clearing highs. MMMMM.
     
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  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Looking like some serious ECL precipitation IMO. Cold Air Required
     
  30. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't forget how contours work. Theres no 2230m AHD contour on the mainland, but doesn't mean there's not some land that gets close to it.
     
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  31. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    This has been a no brainer from the getgo, Jane is just relaying the same information as most of the other posters on here.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    After this and the next phase pass's the broad scale change will be complete, September will be all likely tropical.
     
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  32. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Sorry, I don't understand what you are getting at in terms of your forecast
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A crescendo to the last hurrah (positive snow phase) of the season.
     
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  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Why. What broad scale change will occur?

    :thumbs:
     
  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This is complex judging by BOM's assessment see Tuesday.

    [​IMG]
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    They're really going with AXSG here. Overly bullish with the tropical influence, I think.
    I see this changing IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Where the low forms is going to be the key to it IMO.
    And that's anyone's guess at the moment.
     
  38. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Ignoring whether it ends up as snow or rain, I'm surprised at the low amount of precip in the BOM forecasts at present. Seems quite light at the moment
     
  39. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I'm still going with a slip sliding fizzer based on our seasonal patternt his year of rogue lows, wandering cold pools and tropical inflows
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00Z Looking solid from Wednesday PM. Near perfect placement of Low for maximum snowfall.
    With the Low stalling around Tassie it's got a formidable 'hook' on it, which funnels cold, moist air towards the alps for nearly 24 hours.

    Still a long way to go though.
    [​IMG]
     
  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    If you zoom out a bit it looks even better as its connected to a cold pool further south. Its back the Twortex.

    [​IMG] south.
     
  42. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    The BOM still has sub 10mm each day on Wed/Thurs. What gives?
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    hit refresh.;)
     
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM traditionally won't go out on a limb this far out IMO
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still no agreement on the placement of the low, which is understandable given the nature of the set-up.
    Not as cold as previous runs but still looks good from Wednesday night into Thursday IMO.
     
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  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I think the main event is behind it as the systems feed into each other. its looking much better and more connected to a polar fetch on GFS as opposed to EC.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  48. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    :thumbs:RE broad scale change.
    Busy night the two heat lows on the 20th on this synoptic chart you posted one over the kimberly and the other over Darwin is suggestive of broad scale change (pre build up) SIGN.

    WPac atm has a very large monsoon gyre unusual for August mostly see them in September and late in the month, after the gyre fades monsoon begins the journey south. The Bom always tags ULLows as complex systems standard shop talk.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #148 jeffx, Aug 19, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2016
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  49. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    back to the topic

    [​IMG]
     
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  50. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Massive downgrade for Buller on yr/no. :headbang: