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Predictions August 24-26th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Downgrade across the board for this date range IMO.
    GFS has the low positioned inline with EC now with much of the southerly shadowed by Tassie. Let's see if it stays this way on the 00z run before we bring ourselves down.
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  2. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Was always going to downgrade IMO - was looking too good to be true
     
  3. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    This system looks like it could be amazing for Perisher IMO. Just cold enough.
     
  4. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    IMO there is enough time for a couple more upgrades and a couple more down grades...#2016
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    At least its clearing quicker.
     
  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Ok I am off researching these large monsoon gyre now. :thumbs:
     
  7. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    I see Thredbo doing the best out of this system with the aspect. Could still be huge numbers even with another downgrade, although the low seems to have pushed out further into the Tasman leaving more S in it then ESE
     
    #157 Scoober, Aug 20, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2016
  8. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    I still like it, V/P anom aloft looking very conducive for ecl cyclogenesis. Snow how much,TBH what is the length of a piece of string
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Twice as long as half its length.
     
    derwent likes this.
  10. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    And if you was to strip the string into full length microfibres and add the lengths up?
     
  11. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    Twice as long as half its length times the number of microfibres across its width? ;)

    Models still look promising
     
    MarkV likes this.
  12. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    540 extends E as the powerful low tracks sse.
     
    FourSquare04, POW_hungry and nfip like this.
  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Raise you...:)
     

    Attached Files:

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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plus another with the wandering cold pool.
    (*i.e from a punters eye's view*)
     
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  15. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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  16. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Just tell me if I need to buy a big yellow raincoat or hire chains for next Wed in Thredbo?
     
    skidazza likes this.
  17. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Sure is one complex looking scenario that we face next week......

    [​IMG]
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's Australia. Pack both as standard IMO;)
     
  19. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Not helpful :p
     
  20. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    BOM 4 dayer looks like a weather chart for europe!
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fify
     
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  22. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Have never packed chains for my AWD to Thredbo as standard...wet weather gear on the other hand.
     
  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems to be improving but still borderline Wednesday morning freeze level at VT being 1380.
     
    #173 nfip, Aug 20, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2016
  24. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    That's one huge band being portrayed on the cmc plot coming off the low, Mind just boggles @ how much super cold air would be lifted from the Tasman if this was to verify.
     
    #174 jeffx, Aug 20, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2016
  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big amplitude of cold air in the uppers @jeffx , the mind boggles with this one.
    [​IMG]
     
    #176 POW_hungry, Aug 20, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2016
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z EC still looking positive and promising.
    [​IMG]
     
    MickM likes this.
  28. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Double the distance from the middle to the end
     
  29. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    How's about just pack your snow gear? Rain...naaah. Coffee.
    On topic.
    This date range does not inspire me.
     
    Edgecrusher likes this.
  30. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    @skichic , myself and many others will be faithfully marshalling and simply parentig for a few days at Thredders with this puppy unloading on our butts next week.
    Please God let it be cold & dry.
     
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  31. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    What he said ^^^ we're not there by choice! I'm thinking big yellow raincoat and washing up gloves just in case.
     
    nfip likes this.
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep , ours are blue this year !
    The $5 ponchos from last cupple have gone to heaven.
     
  33. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    I don't think the $5 poncho will cut it this time.
     
  34. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yea of little faith, BUM says 20-30cm down to 1200 Wednesday. Tuesday looks fun, Thursday may be the pick. Little if any clear stuff.
     
  35. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good to see us folk have moved on from the garbage bags from days of olde.
    We are going to Thredbo after all.
    i.e nose pointed directly to the sky ;)
    p.s. I love the hill
     
  36. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Need some fur trim on that white garbage bag ;)
     
    nfip likes this.
  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep helps keeps the snot from the collar until you get to the top of Snowgums aka snowline...
     
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  38. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    So downgrade or not, the majors still say a lot for the week 125 ?? We have 25 in the bag and it's still coming ... At Smiggs now
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO, it's not looking much chop on current runs.
    EC - i'd say 5-10cm, The low is forming too far out in the tasman to have much influence.
    GFS - a bit more, but temperature wise, a bit marginal when the moisture is there.
     
    POW_hungry and The Plowking like this.
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mine earlier read being not so bullish.
     
  41. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    Fresh 06z ens cold cell over the alps.

    [​IMG]
    GFS deterministic

    [​IMG]
    Canuck bomb.
     
    #191 jeffx, Aug 20, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2016
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  42. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    UKMET Bombing low.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    I'm going with a substantial dump.
     
    #192 jeffx, Aug 20, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2016
    snowblowa, jonathanc, nfip and 6 others like this.
  43. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Upgrades and downgrades, meh. I have got a feeling about this one, 50cm+ IMO.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Definitely agree. Moisture is coming from the north, with convergence not quite in-line for the alps.
    Cold air is there but seems dry and late IMO.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  45. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I'm losing faith - low moving too far east too quickly and followup low has stalled its speed moving towards the mountains IMO. Could be something brewing first weekend of September...
     
  46. 2cool

    2cool Hard Yards

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    Some follow up 27th -30th?

    [​IMG]
     
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  47. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is the better looking system.
    This date range is way too unconventional for any kind of accurate prediction imo
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  49. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #Big Wednesday.
     
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  50. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We have had some whacko weather this winter. Anything is possible
     
    The Plowking likes this.