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Predictions August 24-26th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weatherzone saying Canberra Wed, 20 to 40 mm.
     
  2. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Still looking good for 30-40cm in NSW IMO. Less in VIC.
     
  3. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    *assuming a lot of variables come together
     
  4. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    One for the spaghetti heads,time for a:froth: and watch it come to fruition.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Weatherzone still liking Wednesday. They are predicting 30-60cm.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    They're really clutching straws with those sorts of numbers for Wednesday, AXSG looks good for the Main Range but more like a washout for the resorts...
    [​IMG]
     
    #206 POW_hungry, Aug 21, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
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  7. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    EC not showing much precipitation via yr.no however axs and gfs still look good for substantial amounts above 1600m IMO
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00Z looking very much like EC now.
    The less influence of that low on the alps the better IMO. As although it would mean more moisture it will also mean a sacrifice of temps.
    Wednesday arvo on wards still looking ok. 10-30cm IMO - Vic resorts on the lower scale of that range.
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Thursday looks right for some snow for VIC. Looks Dry on Wednesday for VIC, Maybe a bit for NSW resorts. Looking cold on Thursday with -3 degrees at Buller's height.
     
  10. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    700MB-850MB, icy tasman inflow.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #210 jeffx, Aug 21, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
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  11. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    What's the thinking about rain on the Sunday?
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's some chatter about in the Epic BBQ thread. I reckon it's not good.
     
  13. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    You may like this Jelly i notice you post a few Navy model runs, +48hrs mature low with eye.
    [​IMG]
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z suggests we might be in for some Tassie shadowing on Thursday.
    Wednesday still looks line ball with temps favourable for snow above 1600m IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Wow this system has just absolutely disappeared. Will probably just be a 5-10cm dusting now looking at the models :(.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's always been a 'fluid, low confidence' system IMO, lots of variables, and highly dependant on these variables lining up. I can't say I am overly surprised at the downgrades in recent runs.
    On a positive note I feel temps are looking better for Wednesday just need wait and see if the moisture makes it South across the border.
     
    #216 POW_hungry, Aug 21, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
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  17. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    I think you will get a fair bit more that, it will snow even without a low. The navy model posted for entertainment onlyi was taking the piss out of jelly;).
    The EC runs have been almost as funny. I think the correct forecast is somewhere between the UKMET and GFS with good snow.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I still like it for 10-30cm.
     
  19. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Little bit less, little bit later, little bit greater! Might be #Big Thursday.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This ^^.
    And temps looking better Wednesday but only just , which is usually be all we need to swing it from chow to pow.
    Cupple of offerings from mine to illustrate my feelings.
    Lower pressures would be more helpful, see how it progresses from here.
    Cold air feed needed shown bottom LH 1/4

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh and Spag looks ok too.
    Edit : the one behind looks even colder ...
     
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't ruin the reputation of the US Navy ;)
    But I don't actually use them for real forecasting, just for some novelty and comparison. Obviously if they go of the course of the main charts, I definitely don't use them.
    I give you respect and as the ski patrol say 'respect gets respect'. :thumbs: If you want to take the piss out of me, go to the Bear Pit...

    Also keep providing the good charts. I can only dream of where you get them from:rolleyes:
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Back to topic.
    Not looking good for Baw Baw.
    I would say 10-15cm for Buller 15cm for Falls and Hotham. And Main Range 30cm
     
  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This too leans the right direction temp wise, so yes freeze level 1600 'ish.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't forget we've still got big divergence in the models for Low placement.
    AXS-R not loving it - low progged for the NSW north coast.
    [​IMG]
    GFS has some heavy, rogue falls within 200km of the alps so anythings possible (25mm progged Wagga region). below is GFS's take on the moisture for Wed-Fri.
    [​IMG]
    P.S. Kangaroo Valley & Shoalhaven distric must be high-risk for flooding this week!
     
    #225 POW_hungry, Aug 21, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Definitely colder (the one due 28th) in it's wake but it's pushing a hell of a lot of warm, wet shit in front of it.
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep , big puddle of warm.
    .
     
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  28. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Predicted snow falls area 25th, the plots i posted above re: 700mb/850mb icy southwesterly Tasman flow supports
    this model.



    [​IMG]
     
  29. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Looks like this system is likely to miss the resorts completely and we will be stuck with cold and dry. Given that there is a good base at most resorts already, this can only be a good thing. Better to be cold and dry than wet and losing base!
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slip sliding away forsure.

    I think our best chance will be the maturing of a trough feature Wednesday eve. Both GFS & EC have it progged. It may surprise if it deepens.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  31. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is looking kinda meh to me now, from looking like build an ark a few days ago. It's looking marginal at the resorts until later Wednesday, when it gets plenty cold enough for anything that does fall to be snow thereon. Sunday looks great, but not this thread, and the node after looks good too. Good late season.
     
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  33. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Can't say I'm disappointed in the downgrade. Neither raincoat or chains required :D
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXSR says some resorts could be within ~100km/h (as the crow flies) of a foot of fresh. Brindies dump? Could still surprise IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  35. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Yep,the big bang that was hit on the 25th has done a max merritt.
    However i can still see snow showers over this period topping up a pretty good base for this time of year.
     
  36. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow in strange places #6
     
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  37. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    I'm sticking to this forecast, i marked a cell on EPS plot that should provide good localized falls.

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm with you Jeff.
     
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  39. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Hi verm, care to elaborate on what your seeing on Sunday please. (not in date range I know)
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's a nice looking node on the LWT and there's some decent cold air included in that node. AXS is picking it up somewhat, the other models not so much at the moment, but it's a few days out yet. Plenty of time for it to go either way, but this morning it looks good to me for a foot of snow to resort level.
     
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  41. willsy

    willsy Hard Yards

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    Been lurking in the shadows for a long time. Love all the handy info & banter.
    Based on the wealth of knowledge on here what 2 days this week would be best for snow if any? Have the chance to hit Hotham or falls. Prob my only chance this year.
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We seeing it here jeffx ?

     

    Attached Files:

  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Early Thursday and Late Sunday/Monday is the best chances for snow with Monday a much better chance for some good snow. Maybe time to start a predictions thread about Sunday/Monday event @Claude Cat ?
    [​IMG]
     
  44. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    You are on the money its just a tad sw in orientation on the small snap shot you posted, EPS expands it. .:)
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This event looks like a dusting now on EC.
    GFS perhaps is a little more.
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not seeing any agreement for the 28-30 on the models. EC is hopeful, GFS looks like a washout.
    Lets give it a day or two to see if there is a trend.
     
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  47. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I think this system has got up and left.
     
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  48. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Mmm, the Shoalhaven is a big river, and the Kangaroo is surprisingly big too. No flood risk IMO, both will absorb 100mm handily, though it would be spectacular to watch.
     
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  49. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    @nfip
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    25-26th blown up for easier id detail, refer to inch chart to measure.;)
     
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  50. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'
    I'll take that.