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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 17, 2016.
Weatherzone saying Canberra Wed, 20 to 40 mm.
Still looking good for 30-40cm in NSW IMO. Less in VIC.
*assuming a lot of variables come together
One for the spaghetti heads,time for a and watch it come to fruition.
Weatherzone still liking Wednesday. They are predicting 30-60cm.
They're really clutching straws with those sorts of numbers for Wednesday, AXSG looks good for the Main Range but more like a washout for the resorts...
EC not showing much precipitation via yr.no however axs and gfs still look good for substantial amounts above 1600m IMO
GFS 00Z looking very much like EC now.
The less influence of that low on the alps the better IMO. As although it would mean more moisture it will also mean a sacrifice of temps.
Wednesday arvo on wards still looking ok. 10-30cm IMO - Vic resorts on the lower scale of that range.
Thursday looks right for some snow for VIC. Looks Dry on Wednesday for VIC, Maybe a bit for NSW resorts. Looking cold on Thursday with -3 degrees at Buller's height.
700MB-850MB, icy tasman inflow.
What's the thinking about rain on the Sunday?
There's some chatter about in the Epic BBQ thread. I reckon it's not good.
You may like this Jelly i notice you post a few Navy model runs, +48hrs mature low with eye.
EC 00Z suggests we might be in for some Tassie shadowing on Thursday.
Wednesday still looks line ball with temps favourable for snow above 1600m IMO.
Wow this system has just absolutely disappeared. Will probably just be a 5-10cm dusting now looking at the models .
It's always been a 'fluid, low confidence' system IMO, lots of variables, and highly dependant on these variables lining up. I can't say I am overly surprised at the downgrades in recent runs.
On a positive note I feel temps are looking better for Wednesday just need wait and see if the moisture makes it South across the border.
I think you will get a fair bit more that, it will snow even without a low. The navy model posted for entertainment onlyi was taking the piss out of jelly.
The EC runs have been almost as funny. I think the correct forecast is somewhere between the UKMET and GFS with good snow.
I still like it for 10-30cm.
Little bit less, little bit later, little bit greater! Might be #Big Thursday.
And temps looking better Wednesday but only just , which is usually be all we need to swing it from chow to pow.
Cupple of offerings from mine to illustrate my feelings.
Lower pressures would be more helpful, see how it progresses from here.
Cold air feed needed shown bottom LH 1/4
Oh and Spag looks ok too.
Edit : the one behind looks even colder ...
Don't ruin the reputation of the US Navy
But I don't actually use them for real forecasting, just for some novelty and comparison. Obviously if they go of the course of the main charts, I definitely don't use them.
I give you respect and as the ski patrol say 'respect gets respect'. If you want to take the piss out of me, go to the Bear Pit...
Also keep providing the good charts. I can only dream of where you get them from
Back to topic.
Not looking good for Baw Baw.
I would say 10-15cm for Buller 15cm for Falls and Hotham. And Main Range 30cm
This too leans the right direction temp wise, so yes freeze level 1600 'ish.
Don't forget we've still got big divergence in the models for Low placement.
AXS-R not loving it - low progged for the NSW north coast.
GFS has some heavy, rogue falls within 200km of the alps so anythings possible (25mm progged Wagga region). below is GFS's take on the moisture for Wed-Fri.
P.S. Kangaroo Valley & Shoalhaven distric must be high-risk for flooding this week!
Definitely colder (the one due 28th) in it's wake but it's pushing a hell of a lot of warm, wet shit in front of it.
Yep , big puddle of warm.
Predicted snow falls area 25th, the plots i posted above re: 700mb/850mb icy southwesterly Tasman flow supports
Looks like this system is likely to miss the resorts completely and we will be stuck with cold and dry. Given that there is a good base at most resorts already, this can only be a good thing. Better to be cold and dry than wet and losing base!
Slip sliding away forsure.
I think our best chance will be the maturing of a trough feature Wednesday eve. Both GFS & EC have it progged. It may surprise if it deepens.
This is looking kinda meh to me now, from looking like build an ark a few days ago. It's looking marginal at the resorts until later Wednesday, when it gets plenty cold enough for anything that does fall to be snow thereon. Sunday looks great, but not this thread, and the node after looks good too. Good late season.
Can't say I'm disappointed in the downgrade. Neither raincoat or chains required
AXSR says some resorts could be within ~100km/h (as the crow flies) of a foot of fresh. Brindies dump? Could still surprise IMO.
Yep,the big bang that was hit on the 25th has done a max merritt.
However i can still see snow showers over this period topping up a pretty good base for this time of year.
Snow in strange places #6
I'm sticking to this forecast, i marked a cell on EPS plot that should provide good localized falls.
I'm with you Jeff.
Hi verm, care to elaborate on what your seeing on Sunday please. (not in date range I know)
There's a nice looking node on the LWT and there's some decent cold air included in that node. AXS is picking it up somewhat, the other models not so much at the moment, but it's a few days out yet. Plenty of time for it to go either way, but this morning it looks good to me for a foot of snow to resort level.
Been lurking in the shadows for a long time. Love all the handy info & banter.
Based on the wealth of knowledge on here what 2 days this week would be best for snow if any? Have the chance to hit Hotham or falls. Prob my only chance this year.
We seeing it here jeffx ?
Early Thursday and Late Sunday/Monday is the best chances for snow with Monday a much better chance for some good snow. Maybe time to start a predictions thread about Sunday/Monday event @Claude Cat ?
You are on the money its just a tad sw in orientation on the small snap shot you posted, EPS expands it. .
This event looks like a dusting now on EC.
GFS perhaps is a little more.
Not seeing any agreement for the 28-30 on the models. EC is hopeful, GFS looks like a washout.
Lets give it a day or two to see if there is a trend.
I think this system has got up and left.
Mmm, the Shoalhaven is a big river, and the Kangaroo is surprisingly big too. No flood risk IMO, both will absorb 100mm handily, though it would be spectacular to watch.
25-26th blown up for easier id detail, refer to inch chart to measure.
I'll take that.