Predictions August 3-9th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 29, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And -33c brushing Western Vic and -31c over the Alps @500mb by Sunday midnight. The uppers are pretty much on ice too; relatively warmer in the lower atmos though (1000-700mb).
    [​IMG]

    @Kletterer DGZ looks good Sunday AM.
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    DGZ value of ~120mb which is certainly getting in to the impressively deep range.
     
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  3. Bien E

    Bien E Hard Yards

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    that bom forecast almost 200mm in 3 days
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Boom.
    Holy shit BOM...
     
  5. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 6 days accumulations

     
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  6. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Wow the BOM has gone all in, very wide ranges though.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty typical as many have described here. The upper scale will be in the elevated/'sore thumb' terrain, the lower scale will be for rain shadow areas, leeward aspects, and terrain without orographic effects etc.
     
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  8. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its time to break out the big boy..shovel
     
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  9. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    The way the BOM forecast works, as decribed here, is that there is a 50% chance of exceeding the lower end of the range and a 25% chance of exceeding the higher end.
     
  10. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    **** me
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM has Hotham at 30-80mm, and Thredbo 40-80mm for Sunday.
    Seems about right but I never would've imagined a BoM forecast to look like that. Good Lord.
     
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  12. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hotham looking pretty sweet.
    Bureau Home > Australia > Victoria > Forecasts > Mount Hotham Forecast

    Mount Hotham Forecast
    View the current warnings for Victoria

    Forecast issued at 4:30 pm EST on Friday 4 August 2017.

    Forecast for the rest of Friday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 35 to 45 km/h increasing to 40 to 50 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Saturday 5 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -2
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 20 to 50 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 40 to 55 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    7 day Town Forecasts
    Precis Icon Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Albury-Wodonga 5 13
    [​IMG] Wangaratta 5 12
    [​IMG] Mount Buller -3 -1
    [​IMG] Mount Hotham -4 -2
    [​IMG] Falls Creek -3 -1
    [​IMG] Rutherglen 5 13
    [​IMG] Benalla 5 12
    [​IMG] Mansfield 4 11
    [​IMG] Beechworth 4 11
    [​IMG] Corryong 4 10
    Sunday 6 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -4
    Snow. Possible heavy falls.
    Possible rainfall: 30 to 80 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Heavy snow falls possible. Winds northwesterly 45 to 55 km/h decreasing to 35 to 45 km/h in the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 12:00 pm to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Monday 7 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max -3
    Snow showers. Wind easing.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This system is very elegant. All the right ingredients working together. Its not so much the size of the cold air mass but how intense it is in the right location.
     
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  14. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    I don't want it any colder. Nothing that risks taking away moisture (i'm being super greedy now)
     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its just right at 850 to 750 hPa and lots of bouyancy / lift giving us ripe cold fruit ;) enjoy the ride.
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Tomorrow:

    VIC: 20-30cm
    NSW: 15-25cm

    Sunday:

    VIC: 40-55cm
    NSW: 25-40cm
    Sunday night snow to the Grampians and Mt Macedon.

    Monday:

    VIC: 30-40cm
    NSW: 35-45cm
    Low level snow for CTs. ADFD shows snow to BMs that morning.

    Tuesday: Nothing more than light snow showers early morning for VIC and NSW.

    Snow accumulation total:
    VIC: 90-125cm
    NSW: 75-110cm

    Easily for the record book.
    Get out there and ski the dump. Except for me :(
     

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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I bet your bottom dollar than NSW will get more than Victoria.
    It's so seldom the other way.
    IMO
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday does look better than yesterdays models for Vic. though.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah on paper it looks solid for Vic, but that 200m vert and the Northerly inbound aspect overides the models and says it's weighted towards NSW, I agree.
     
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  20. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    Obviously lots of wind blown off the main range for thredbo and perisher.lots
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am struggling to see mondays totals tbh.

    GFS has the ye old tasman low, pressure looks high and tassie will get in the way
     
    #621 Donzah, Aug 4, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2017
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  22. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Welcome back donzah btw
     
  23. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    What are expectations for Baw Baw still get up to 20 cm or can i possibly get a little more excited :woohoo::woohoo:
    Happy talcum snow everyone :D
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, that was based on 12Z.
    EC looks to have scaled things back a fair bit on today's 00Z run, for Monday.

    ~10-15cm for resorts on Monday now IMO.
     
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  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold though , dust on cream.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Down to 800-900m I reckon. Jindy dust.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC for Monday QPF (mm)
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah looking at it... most precip appears iin the midnight to 9am window...then tapers off..IMO Monday/Tuesday are the days
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    4-5cm per hour Sunday Arvo according to EC now. That's ~2"/hr

     
  30. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only the wsw-sw systems.
     
  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday/Monday for Hotham....sans kids
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #633 Donzah, Aug 4, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2017
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  34. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday has been downgraded it seems.
     
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  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only ever snows in 5cm increments in NSW so that's pretty much a given.
     
  36. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Higher is always better
     
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  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probs, but just following what the model output says...
     
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  38. Apiraclubby

    Apiraclubby Hard Yards

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    I originally predicted 50cm max at Buller for this storm from Thursday to Tuesday. I know downgrade this to 40cm IMO. Buller claimed 16cm yesterday of which only 9 is true. Currently (8.40pm) blue skies in Melbourne with slight wind starting to increase. Also approx 1cm of new snow today on my ski club roof. Praying for something special here
     
  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You don't think they maybe took measurements across the resort and averaged them?
    Buller are pretty spot on with measurements. All Victorian resorts are
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Out of all the resorts that report snow depth Buller is the one that I would trust more than any of the others. Their snow depth gauges are averaged but most importantly they are visible and you can go and check the measurements for yourself any time you want. Other resorts I dont know how much i'd trust, but Buller is one that I would.
     
  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK so even if this is true and they only 'really' got 9cms, and 1cm today, and you predicted 40 so there's 30 left to go, then you'll probably be out of credits some time early on Sunday morning.
     
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  42. Apiraclubby

    Apiraclubby Hard Yards

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    It's times like these I revert to IPhone weather for complete transparency. Yesterday they predicted snow falling at 4pm today, then changed to 10pm tonight, now changed to 3am tomorrow morning. Occasionally they hold the truth
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    All the vic resorts are spot on.
     
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  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wot.
    They have a few drink bottles in different places ?
     
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  45. Apiraclubby

    Apiraclubby Hard Yards

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    Mate I want to go into this storm completely wrong but sometimes the gut feeling over rides. Tomorrow I will ski buller no matter how shit or magnificent it is.
     
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  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's Sunday Monday you should judge this event on.
     
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nope. But they put their measuring sticks in places where hundreds of people ski past every day and could stop and have a look and check their claimed measurement vs. what the sticks say. Not some fanciful number made up in 5cm-increments to out-number their competitor.
     
  48. Apiraclubby

    Apiraclubby Hard Yards

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    My brothers will ski Monday or Tuesday based on the outcome of this storm like most smart people. I ride storms, not outcomes. Bahahahaha
     
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  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon Buller, Hotham and Falls should probably measure at Bogong. Outsource it to Redenergy or something.
     
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  50. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hence Sunday/Monday.
    Tomorrow might be underwhelming in the scheme of things-though still great.
     
    #650 The Plowking, Aug 4, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2017