Predictions August 3-9th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 29, 2017.

  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    www.ski.com.au :)
     
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  2. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings New Member
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    It shouldn't be underestimated that the predicted blizzard tomorrow will be dangerous particularly for the inexperienced, with windchill of -15 to -20c and easily becoming lost in zero viz..
    Yep it's exciting but needs to be respected.
     
  3. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    :(
     
  4. Adricat

    Adricat Active Member

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    Hmmm, car is packed for a sneaky day trip, might not be worth it?
     
  5. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Monday might be the best bet I would say
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member
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    Snow in jindys forecast. Monday. Me thinks Monday morning will be carnage
     
  7. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yep Low Level Snow will create heaps of carnage.
     
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  8. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member
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    Small Hail.... Hail the great man.... Thundersnow.... Sunday night looking wow
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I think people need to seriously consider the conditions tomorrow.
    Apart from lifts on wind hold, you need to consider your own safety.

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in the Central, South West, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 4:52 pm Saturday, 5 August 2017.

    Weather Situation:
    A strong cold front will move over western Victoria this evening with northerly winds strengthening ahead of it. The front will cross the remainder of the State on Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are possible over the far southwest Saturday evening and will extend across remaining southern and mountain districts overnight and early Sunday morning as the front moves eastwards. Elevated areas are considered most susceptible to these gusts. Peak gusts over Alpine areas are expected to reach 110km/h.

    Whilst winds will ease over most areas by early Sunday morning, strong to gale force winds will persist over the Alpine peaks into Sunday afternoon. Such strong winds combined with heavy snow falls are likely to lead to Blizzard conditions over the Alpine areas.

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS for people in parts of the
    Snowy Mountains Forecast District.


    Issued at 4:30 pm Saturday, 5 August 2017.

    VIGOROUS WINDS OVER ALPINE PEAKS
    SYNOPTIC SITUATION:

    A strong cold front moved over southeastern New South Wales early today, with another approaching from the southwest. This pattern is expected to maintain vigorous west to northwesterly winds over the alpine peaks today and Sunday.

    DAMAGING WINDS averaging 80 to 90 km/h, with peak gusts in excess of 110 km/h, are likely over Alpine peaks above 1900 metres today and Sunday.

    BLIZZARD CONDITIONS are possible in these areas. The National Parks Service of NSW recommends that people consider postponing back country travel until conditions improve.


    Locations which may be affected include Perisher Valley, Charlotte Pass and Thredbo.
     
  10. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    Some snow is better than none, if only i could teleport our lodge to NSW :rolleyes:Still a great weather
    event unfolding :thumbs::thumbs:
     
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic
     
  12. Neslot

    Neslot Dedicated Member

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  13. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    It's going to be fine. A few Barinas in ditches but I'm yet to be convinced we are going to remember this as particularly chaotic
     
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  14. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    IMO this Weatherzone prediction for BB maybe a little off..
     

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  15. Adricat

    Adricat Active Member

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    Yeah, but will there be enough lifts running at da Bo to make a day trip worth it?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Expect what went on this afternoon wind-wise to be the norm tomorrow. There appeared to be quite a bit not operational due to wind. It's not going to be any better tomorrow. As always, your call.
    IMO, it's not going to be a pretty day on the slopes tomorrow. Wind and significantly more snow will be like walking on Uranus....
     
  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    dangerously windy, whiteout, blizzard conditions... typical Australian snowfall conditions.

    But seriously, I would avoid going up tomorrow, definitely chains to 4WD (including in KNP, even though you don't legally have to). Definitely don't do Harrietville approach to Hotham.

    Skiing won't be pleasant anyway, winds going up your neckwarmer, very cold conditions, lots of people who don't know how to deal with whiteout. And if you can find the powder, you may get stuck somewhere you don't want to be. And you can't see your tracks anyway.

    Only go out if you know what you are doing, and don't even think about going under ropes or leaving resort boundaries. Massive Windloading = Massive Avalanches.

    I just don't want to see that search and rescue operation in the Alps on Sunday Night news....
    Take care folks.
     
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  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    What do you mean? These are the exact conditions people get lost, stuck in an avalanche, stuck on a lift, stuck off the side of the road, bogged in snow, etc.
     
  19. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    I predict not many, if any, lifts will turn tomorrow at the majors and the BC will be lethal.

    Is not a skiing day methinks.

    Is a day to watch nature unfurl her power and beauty
     
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  20. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings New Member
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    Good timely advice, and in reality it will be crap conditions.
     
  21. Lankski

    Lankski Just Registered

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    Unless you're planning to spend all day on Friday Flat I would say no, it's not worth it
     
  22. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Is that really necessary?
     
  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Welcome @Lankski
    Very good advice.
     
  24. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    That's a really poor and disappointing attitude to have mate. You cannot underestimate the weather. I drove in white out blizzard conditions on the road to Hotham last year and it was white knuckle the whole way, not something I recommend inexperienced or even novice drivers tackle.

    A lot of punters read our comments and posts on here for advice and views then make decisions accordingly. As CC said - this is to be taken seriously.
     
  25. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    ?
     
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  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    @Claude Cat how are you seeing the next 24-48 hours panning out?
     
  27. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Obviously people should not be stupid but this weather is not atypical IMO (low vis, wind, the temps etc). I don't think I'm being a cowboy, I just don't think we need to scare people who are skiing in a ski resort.

    Touring, etc, is clearly out of the question in conditions like these. Driving requires extra care too. Measured caution - absolutely - but I don't think it's helpful to say 'I don't recommend novice drivers drive in these conditions' when they've got a ski holiday booked.
     
    #727 Trail Blazer, Aug 5, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2017
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  28. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    yr,no only has a moderate breeze at falls creek tmrw

    Can be safely ignored
     
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  29. shred_gnar

    shred_gnar Active Member

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    Does this apply for Perisher as well? Tbars and such.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Do particularly like the increments and sustained falls throughout EC's prog. Clearly defined on the Meteorgrams.
    Double edged sword tomorrow. Frontal band ~9am with an embedded trough to keep us going into early Monday AM.
     
    #730 POW_hungry, Aug 5, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2017
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Takes a lot to get surface lifts on wind hold, I doubt perisher would have much of an issue. That said, it really comes down to comfortablity and personal safety. I guess if winds put guest safety at risk Perisher maybe inclined to restrict access more than put on genuine windhold - but otherwise I think you'll see more terrain open on Perisher than Thredbo IMO, it'll come down to whether you want to withstand the conditions.
     
  32. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    I'm confused by the times ?
    Is the second trough coming through early Monday or 10pm Monday? (Hotham)
     
  33. dawooduck

    dawooduck Pool Room
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    IMHO, drive to the mountains tomorrow and stay for 3 days ... Stralya skiing is very much a 3 day any day affair.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Sorry mate, uploaded the wrong day!? All fixed now. Sunday is double-edged, Monday is mainly embedded trough day...
     
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  35. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    I think people need to have a realistic view of conditions tomorrow and possibly Monday: low visibility, very high winds, dicey road conditions (to say the least), and a lot of lifts on wind hold. I will be at Perisher on Tuesday having rearranged some work commitments: nothing on God's earth would persuade me to venture up tomorrow (I remember vividly ripping my ACL and meniscus to shreds in similar conditions in 2013).
     
  36. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Is Monday likely to be a safe day to ski with regard to wind and visibility? I'm heading up to Stirling. Obviously avoiding it tomorrow. :confused::eek:
     
  37. dawooduck

    dawooduck Pool Room
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    If I could get away I would be hitting up Guthega first thing Monday ... NW facing trees :thumbs:
     
  38. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    @Jellybeans1000. Is this change looking more likely to hit 12 or so hours later than originally thought? Your view?? Seems like there is more chance that the worst snow conditions will be post mid morning for NSW...
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Winds:
    Snow-wise yes; the bulk of snowfall will be received Sunday 1000-2200hrs. Excuse me for butting in but it's all consistent with what BoM has put out tonight.
     
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  40. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Thanks POW.

    The winds were pretty tough today as well. Snow was in good shape
     
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  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    All good...
    Yes, mid morning onwards Sunday, continuing thru Monday, though the winds will die down by then.
     
    #741 Jellybeans1000, Aug 5, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2017
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  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Monday will be much better than Sunday. But still need to be cautious.
     
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  43. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs Dedicated Member
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    They tend to slow some t-bars down to half speed when it is windy. I have seen some t-bars closed because of wind, most commonly Happy valley, but also Mt P. IIRC there was a day last year or the year before where the entire perisher resort was on wind hold, except for mitchell, sturt and wentworth t-bars on front valley, although they did get some of the others running later that day.
     
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  44. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I predict that people who shouldn't be there augmented by a few who should know better will keep Ski Patrol more than busy for the next few days. Don't let ambition exceed ability for the next couple of days , save that for the bluebird days that will follow.
     
  45. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Thanks Jelly.
     
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  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Nice pics on FB btw:thumbs:
     
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  47. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    But the lure... it gets too much for some.
     
  48. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    The lure is what keeps those fantastic Ski Patrol volunteers busy at a time when they really don't need it. Be sensible people resist the lure.
    Personally mixed emotions about the next couple of days , sort of glad injury forces me not to be tempted and then again cursing that same injury because as you say ..............the lure............its almost irresistible.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    If you're a Sydney snow chaser; you should see snow around Shooters Hill (above 1000m), Monday 10-5pm IMO.
     
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  50. viswin

    viswin Active Member

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    Will be challenging.. but with the right gear an a bit of knowledge (and humility).. we should be right! (Anyway, I do not expect a lot of lifts to be open though)
     
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