Predictions August 3-9th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 29, 2017.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO 20-30cm by this time tomorrow night.
     
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  3. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Id say a bit looking at the radar, its flicking off nicely, great placement.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, you'll see most of that in the next 8-14 hours @FourSquare04 . Should be a lot colder/drier snow overnight as the deeper airmass moves through Western Vic tonight.
     
  5. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Maybe to 800M here tomoz in the upper Bluies.

    Pity the leg is fornicated! :(
     
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  6. bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

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    Any one please care to post what tomorrow's weather is looking like in Nsw. We're deciding on either back country day or Charlotte's deal.

    Don't particularly want to go out bc if it's going to socked in and windy like today.
    Thanks :)
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looks pretty avg, TBH. Winds look pretty bearable. But whilst there is a clearing trend, I’d expect white out conditions in the BC tomorrow IMO. Low cloud as far as I can see.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 1pm tomorrow Low Cloud Cover
    [​IMG]
    N.B. This is resort level winds. I'd expect 20-30% stronger on the roof of Aus (+gusts) IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

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    Thanks pow
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    My advice (FWIW) if you're super keen, is prepare for the BC, and then mill around the resort tomorrow AM and by mid/late-morning if it 'aint improving... Can it.
     
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  11. bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

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    Thanks pow, it's not like it's gunna be terrible in resort tomorrow. Think I'll make the call in the morning but I really not keen on being out there with a lot of loading not being able to see what I'm riding.
     
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  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    EC forcast .
    Tidy.


    AXS R concurs....


    GFS saying more like 15cm (gut feeling a bit light on IMO)

    [​IMG]
     
  14. bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

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  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Stormcast (GFS) , which I find pretty reliable saying it's all but done also .
     
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  16. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    What am i missing? BOM forecast for rest of monday (perisher) is 15-50mm, surely that upper amount is fanciful
     
  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Others here correct me if I'm wrong pls.
    Personal opinion is that BOM issue forecasts based on safety considerations and best advice to the general public of potential outcomes rather than an accurate detailed prediction of what is determined a likely result.
    IIRC this changed after the Perfect Storm. Sydney Hobart in '98.
    Hence these days stating wind gusts / wave heights etc may be double .
    So for snow forecasting if they thro in a 50cm , like they have now it covers their butt with the "advice "they are giving.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think you may have caught it before they finished updating... Looks like this for me, as it usually does for the PM update (they remove the forecasted precip):
     
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  19. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    Yeah i've noticed there are two different versions. On the Aus Alps BOM page if you hit the 'perisher' link you get the 7 day version you're referring too. BUT if instead you hit the 'weather overview' button you get to a page which also has a 7 day forecast for perisher but this version does give the precip range. Intriguesting.
     
  20. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    Which gives this forecast for tonight:

     
  21. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss Active Member

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    Tomorrow's viz at falls? What's the chance of cloud lifting? Looking to skin to McKay
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Still looks cloudy.
    GFS Skew-T chart suggests high humidity at resort level, so the cloud level could well be around that level too.
     
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  23. skidazza

    skidazza Active Member

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    Clear as a bell here (Falls) tonight. Been watching the groomers out of the Village Bowl and can see the slopes way better than when I was on them this afternoon! Was hoping that might hold for tomorrow - but sounds like maybe not
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's not set in stone - if anything, the morning looks better than the afternoon. IMO
     
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  25. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Taipan, 2nd August Wednesday at 9:19 PM

    And a great result! Ski well and safely everybody!

    [​IMG]

    We will see in a few days time.
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Perth forecast for today could see the coldest day for 5+ years.
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Snow is in the forecast for the Stirlings....again. Down to 800m in that neck of the woods this arvo, but drying trend on the way by then
     
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