Predictions August 30th - September 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 24, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No real good news for this one.

    IMO




     
    #1 Claude Cat, Aug 24, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2016
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  2. skidazza

    skidazza Hard Yards

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    Only good news being that it's 150 to 200 hours out - leaving plenty of time for it to improve? :D

    On the assumption that doesn't happen - how "not good" are you thinking this will be CC? Rain for all 3 days? Should I pack two books for my week at Falls instead of one?
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd say 2 pretty wet days (30-31) and 1 "damp" IMO
     
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  4. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    On the bright side it looks quite wet for us in Central Vic mid-next week. Good for rivers, dams, crops etc.
     
  5. skidazza

    skidazza Hard Yards

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    Thanks CC - that still (hopefully!) leaves me 5 non-wet/damp days to enjoy (Sunday to Sunday). Would be very happy with that! :)
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z GFS/EC seem a little more aligned in the last 2-3 runs.

    GFS showing 20-30mm Tues-Thurs
    EC showing 30-40mm Tues-Thurs
    Freeze level at it's lowest (~1800m) early Friday morning - which will be too little too late.
    Outside of this +2100m FL (Tues, Wed, Thurs), IMO.
     
  7. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    OUCH !!!o_O
     
  8. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I feel it in my fingers
    I feel it in my to-oes...
     
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  9. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Very tropicana look on the EC @that range, do note it shows a low beginning to wrap in the SW corner of nsw.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which lends itself to funnelling the wandering cooler air, albeit not overly cold. But really just a closing of the stable door after the horse has bolted IMO. Majority of the moisture will have passed by Friday midnight.
     
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  11. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Agree yeah it looks as CC and you polity put it. [​IMG]
     
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  12. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    The NCEP ens looking a little more generous with that low the EC plot shows starting to wrap.
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meanwhile the SW can brace itself for another hiding on the 3/4th. Looking big on NCEP!
     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    30-40mm across 2-3 days aint that much, the majors will be fine. Obviously the same can't be said for the lower resorts.
     
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  15. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, the next system is showing no love but whats behind gives hope for an early spring vindaloo.

    The current trailing high is 1034hpa but the 3 following are lucky to crack 1024hpa. And some very strong lows below them.

    Ride this one out and then settle in.
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anything Baw Baw has will be gone. No Questions Asked (Sorry @Baw Baw Bear)
    Same with Selwyn and LM.
    After this event will be stick with only the off piste runs which are up high and the groomers IMO.
    Perisher and Top half of Thredbo should be fine.
    Hotham and Falls will be fine.
    Buller might have some issues.
    I reckon we have a good week, then a meh week, then a couple of crap weeks until season wraps up.
     
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  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow check this wanderer:
    [​IMG]
     
  18. Izzy

    Izzy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    We are in Thredbo for a week from Sunday. We have had 9 seasons in a row since 2007 with a week of no rain and good conditions. Looks like our luck is up for season number 10...
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some warm incursion into the poles behind it. How very inter-seasonal of it.
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unbook, Abort, cancel !
    Won't end the season but won't do it any favours
     
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weird August wanderer
     
  22. Izzy

    Izzy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain, hail, snow or shine, there will be a smile on all faces if skiing.
     
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  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I also know someone who used to go this same week every year. I remember a few years back it was the first weekend in September, possibly 2nd weekend when there was a torrential rain event.

    This period looks very warm at the moment IMO
     
    #23 FourSquare04, Aug 26, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2016
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  24. Izzy

    Izzy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    We normally go a week or two earlier, but couldn't this year.
     
  25. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    This period is looking unsuitable and possibly very wet now, models are unkind atm.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  26. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    No problem :thumbs: We have bigger things to be concerned about, Leasing , Rates and another strategic plan ,troubled times ahead !!
     
  27. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    GFS 18Z looks just gross for Wed and Fri.

    And has anyone else noticed Yeah... Nah's odd renderings of EC this season? Seems to consistently have the temps too low. For example, currently has half a metre of snow for Perisher progged for Fri. More nah than yeah that one IMO
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wet.
    As it's been all along. IMO
     
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  29. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    GEFS going with the tropicana fetch with alot of uncertainly with the cluster of lows with some deep off the coast.

    [​IMG]
     
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  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain?
    Yeah....naaaah.
    Spent way too much quality time on snow for that nonsense ;)
     
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  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd be most concerned about elevation. You all need to have a round table about that one.
    On-topic.
    Rain.
     
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  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have a strategic plan. Be on your feet and the ski lift company needs to open everything they can quickly, rather than waiting for the weekend. Baw Baw can't do that anymore.

    Anyway, One Word: Rain
     
  33. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Understatement. IMO

     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hold the **** on.... This thing was 30-40mm on Wednesday. 30-40mm wasn't the end of the world.... That right there, is the end of the world!
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Moisture levels have been upgrading over the last day or two.
     
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  38. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    at ben (lift company ) is pulling the pin this weekend , its been a long season for us .. i think they looked at this forecast for next week . looks very wet ..
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As @jeffx pointed out earlier today, this thing now has a conveyor belt of moisture from the tropics since 00Z run yesterday... skies the limit in terms of rainfall as long as that fetch is maintained.

    It's not going to be pretty.
     
  40. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    r predictions this bad?? Bears predict this could be a useful acquisition for those with wealth...[​IMG]
     
  41. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not prepared to panic yet. Todays run looks like crap but the low takes a while to cross the bight and then disintegrates at the Vic border. Its also followed by some cold air so we just need a cold air injection into the low on its travels and todays predicted 120ml is cut to 50ml and survivable.

    Just remember, last weekends front was called by most as 20ml pre frontal and 10cm after. We actually got 5ml pre and 30cm plus after.

    I say let it play.
     
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  42. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    ****

    ****

    ****
     
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  43. S-man

    S-man Hard Yards

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    Yep not a bad season considering there was no real major dump just consistent cool temps and lack of rain event i guess, still looks decent over the back.
    Mawson holding onto its modest cover well also.
    Back on topic, next week looking shit.
     
  44. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Is that 100mm predicted?
     
  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you are under the bullseye... 170mm...
     
  46. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    ouch!!! thats more than the rain event back in late july. at least that was followed by 70cm of the good stuff
     
  47. Floodman

    Floodman Hard Yards

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  48. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Toot, toot. Pineapple express.

    Will be some major flooding if this happens. The ground is saturated already.

    [​IMG]
     
  49. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    Looking more likely a event wide spread over the SE,not your standard moisture flux.
    Note the blocking high to the east i think the low will be very slow moving and ramp up.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]
     
    #49 jeffx, Aug 27, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2016
  50. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    To avoid any confusion not talking snow here, if the models keep trending this event be prepared for major flooding.
     
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