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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 24, 2016.
Gonna need a bigger boat
Looking like the floods of 2012 all over again
You know how yr.no has been over estimating all winter.... Let's hope it still is.
On the up side freeze level on Friday is looking better for PV than earlier in week.
Above 1850 m still in with a hope.
Latest 00z run has changed a little bit for the better, still looking ugly. Hopefully a few more shifts and we can skip this beast
EC is certainly the lesser evil at the moment. GFS is very heavy handed for Friday, I think we can expect downgrades here.
EC going for 50-70mm for the alps Wed-Friday.
In fact, both models have it looking very much like Wednesday (just gone), minus any availability of cold air. Both are even hinting that the majority of convergence will slip North, and then offshore IMO. No immunity against rain, just some hope of a better scenario on the Friday.
Wednesday rain is a given and locked in IMO
CAPE is up there on Wednesday so expect thunderstorms and instability on Wednesday eve with main frontal feature.
Looks more like the Early-Sept 2010 system to me. We copped 80mm in 24 hours in Nthn Vic with a ridiculously humid tropical in-feed from the North (Dewpoint temp around 16 degC!)
Bom forecast for Perisher valley Wednesday saying 4 - 10 mm, ha wish that would happen. I am seeing 30 mm at least.
Definitely prefer accessg scenario for friday with it a bit more north and slipping off than gfs.
At Perisher from the 4th for 10 days hopefully its dried off a bit by then!
We won't know the potential outcome of Friday until this front hits SW WA on Tuesday, IMO.
EC progging cut/pastes for Friday.
EC rainfall (40-65mm) progged for Wed/Thurs.
Agree, transitional between seasonal patterns for me means a system at time.
BOM 4 day is looking better for Wed. Yesterday was showing a continuous trough feeding the Pineapple. Today has the trough getting cutoff from the feed so should hopefully reduce the damage.
Central NSW temps have been back to high teens over the last few days so we are not seeing the inland heat build up of a few weeks ago so hopefully it wont be as warm as it could be.
Rain is coming but not as bad as it looked yesterday.
A few more of EC, basically SE is the sink.
Heat as well or just moisture?
Upgrade for the snowfields on EC today, at least for Friday.
Wednesday no real change, but as I suspected earlier, EC00Z now has the bulk of the moisture moving through the Cenco & Nor coasts.
EC00z still has 35-65mm progged for Wed/Thurs.
Dodged a bullet maybe?
We'll still have to endure Wed/Thurs, but Friday is still a fair way out. It's just a positive scenario at this point - lets see if it hangs in there.
I know it doesn't belong in this thread but does anyone have a crystal ball as to what may happen later in September? The October long weekend is my only opportunity to do perisher. Maybe give it a miss?
If you like walking around the hills it should be good.
You got your wish.
15-30mm now forecasted.
Was wishing for the 4 - 10 mm but seeing the 30. Can only hope for some downgrades on Fridays forecast.
ACSES has a bit of a get out of goal free card with the moisture mostly north of the alps. Not so the others.
I'm rafting on the Ovens and King Rivers next Wed-Fri! Gonna have plenty of water IMO.
The R**n on Wednesday - would it be correct in saying that it will arrive later on Wednesday? Continuing overnight into Thursday morning - or is it poncho's all day Wednesday
I think you can expect the main front around midnight Wednesday morning. Rain should taper off around 8pm Wednesday eve IMO.
Max of 5-7C (Perisher village). 45-55km/h NW winds.
Showers throughout Thursday.
No, no, no.
It's [insert other activities here], not ponchos.
Still looking better than it did a couple of days ago on the EC 12Z run.
GFS has lost hold of Friday/Saturday, IMO.
EC has Wed still with about 35-65mm of rain progged. GFS about half that.
EC has steering winds (700-850mb) and the uppers looking like they might spare the alps on Friday. EC hinting at the possibility of snow in the higher resorts late on Friday night (albeit <5cm).
GFS on crack on Friday/Saturday IMO
Geezz yr Hotham suggesting temps good (-2c to -4c) for 70cm Fri/Sat.. If only right?
Hrmm freeze levels around 1800m progged Saturday but not sure that cold IMO. Kinda besides the point though as EC has a clearing trend by Saturday AM
Here comes the (2nd) great washout of Season 2016
EC back on board with the low to blow out around Sou-coast NSW. EC with 100-125mm progged Wed-Saturday. GFS has backed off since yesterday with 50-75mm Wed-Sat.
I think we'll see an EC downgrade on Wednesday for Saturday's tropical feed. I feel it may have over-stated the front hitting WA on Tuesday.
There's nothing good about the rest of this week at resort level.
Charts indicating to me that there is a sad state of affairs about to occur at all resorts over the next week
I've extended the date range to include the fun of the 3rd & 4th.
Nope not looking good.
Was up at falls over the weekend and Sun valley still has an excellent cover.
Summit still pretty good and inter has some holes but still not to bad.
After this event, the back will be ok, summit should hold up ok. But the home trails and Inter area and alot of off piste on the front side will be stuffed.
Tomorrow and Wednesday still looking wet.
Friday & Saturday not much better. There still differences in the models how Friday and Saturday will play out though.
IMO EC could be ok above 1900m, whereas GFS just looks bad. Either way there's plenty of rain below 1900m; GFS has it really hitting NSW, EC shares the pain.
Come on. Surely if we can talk up a snowfall event we can down talk a rain event. Looks more like a surf ECL anyhow.
The ECL will clear out and do minimal damage and may finish with a bit of alpine snow. Look that 546 line is hanging around.
Also aren't geo-potential heights adjusted (calibrated) on a seasonal basis.
Best conditions so far in the alpine this year last Friday Saturday. So much more snow up there. Windblown snow got blown into the top of Thredbo on Sunday, which was really good on the return journey.
Lucky It's starting to downgrade a bit
Similar story at Hotham - cover quite good on selected runs. Stayed cold until around 1pm on Sunday then started to warm up quite quickly. The crowds really made an impact on the cover too and by Sunday afternoon there was more and more patches opening up.
If you compare the last precipitation chart posted yesterday (50 to 125mm) with the one above (25 to50 mm) the progression looks less and less flood and more more high alpine snow. IMO.
Another Alpine camp could be on the cards come next Monday the way GFS is looking.
yesterday's 00 run
But don't fool yourself that it's going to be anything other than rain for the most part if you're looking at GFS.
EC has a better hope of (very) high snow.
Are you saying I am a fool. Yep I understand. Just trying to find a bit of positive spin on the progression.
Yep anything below 1800 m will be ordinary.
Also with respect to the lack of snow last Wednesday Thursday at resorts. This was one of the best main range dumps in years as all aspects above 2000 m had 10 to 30 cm of fresh. It was pumping up there.
Of course not
realistically the hopecasting has some merit at >1950m IMO for Fri-Sat
it's all bad wed/thurs
won't really get a grip on potential freeze levels until the first wave moves out .. once again IMO and mainly drawing on being spring, which I think is best taken system by system .
It's all about the position of that low on Friday.