Predictions August 30th - September 4th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 24, 2016.

  1. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    There is not a lot of lift serviced terrain above 1950m in Australia
     
  2. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    shame eh!
     
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  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Um, so walk...
     
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  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Not really... Keeps the gapers away... ;)
     
  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Mt Perisher & Karrels (Thredbo) are around 2050 m.
     
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  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Mt Twynam 2195 m
    Mt Townsend 2210 m
    Mt Kosciusko 2228 m
    Rams Head 2190 m
    Mt Abbot 2190 m
    Carthuers 2150 m

    And and and.
     
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Bom going all out flood though.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    Not a lot of any terrain.
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
  10. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Looking a lot more positive on GFS for Friday. But Still looks wet Wednesday.

    The best terrain is up high on those peaks listed. All have faces as steep and critical as the Feather top.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    This looks dreadful IMO

    I predict Selwyn will close by the weekend
     
  12. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    Exactly. That 4 dayer looks dreadful as FourSquare stated - resort or bc.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    A little further north on GFS

     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    that's roughly 100mm better than it has looked.
     
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  15. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Read !!! I haven't seen lifts on Kosci
     
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  16. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I think after Wed, Thursday the alps will get very little.
     
  17. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    The shading represents only 1mm or more
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  19. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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  20. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Good to see all this warm air and moisture dodging to the north. Looked dire yesterday morning when I checked.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC this afternoon.

    [​IMG]
     
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  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    eeekkkk.... Do not like the 4:30pm Perisher update ...

    Tuesday 30 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 7
    Late rain at times. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of rain in the evening. Winds northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    7 day Town Forecasts

    Precis Icon
    Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Thredbo Top Station 0 5
    [​IMG] Perisher Valley 0 7
    Wednesday 31 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 4
    Max 6
    Rain.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 40 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain with possible heavy falls in the early morning, tending showers remainder of the day with possible snow showers falling above 1900 metres in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h early, decreasing to 30 to 45 km/h by the late morning tending westerly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    Thursday 1 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 7
    Shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Snow possible above 1900 metres. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the morning.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    Friday 2 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 4
    Rain.
    Possible rainfall: 25 to 50 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1900 metres. Light winds becoming easterly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

    Saturday 3 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 4
    Showers.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers or snow. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

    Sunday 4 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 4
    Showers or snow at times.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Already posted above.
     
  24. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Sorry CC, 2nd post is from the 4:30pm run. 1st post was from sparrow's hours this morning. Note the change for Friday, a doubling of the predicted rain.
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    ok (deleted the out of date one)!
     
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  26. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    It looks terminal imo.

    But if Tuesdays pineapple can drench the interior and wipe out the heat soak then all we need is for Fridays low to carry some internal cold and it might save the spring.

    Not looking good at the moment but lets see how it plays.
     
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Sorry bro.
     
  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Hardly terminal but far from desirable.
     
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  29. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member

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    Prediction is Pineapple Express imo.Yuk,wish we can abort mission.
    We will at Thredbo for the SSA races this Thursday to Monday.
     
  30. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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  31. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Its looking like a tripple banger. Tuesday pineapple. Thursday pineapple redux, although slightly north then Friday, tropical low with the hint of bombing right over the ALPS.

    This has poison written all over it imo. Hope im wrong.
     
  32. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    I know what you mean though , for freeheelers there's a lot more ;)
     
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  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep gotta agree unfortunately , tho last week looked like this too and moisture went North & East of the Alps as have couple of the others this year.
    Granted the 540 line was also way North.
    Glimmer of hope later this week suggesting there may be some cooler air around , albeit after Friday...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Spag showing some support.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Possible wind-hold for exposed Vic lifts from late-afternoon tomorrow (winds northerly 60-70km/h) gusting +80km/h.
    [​IMG]

    +CAPE for good storm activity across Eastern Vic /East Gippsland from Wednesday midday.
    [​IMG]

    very warm uppers for east coastline. (@850mb)
    [​IMG]
     
    #135 POW_hungry, Aug 29, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2016
  36. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Not looking awful wind wise on EC
    [​IMG]
    Will be watching flood levels in King, Ovens, Kiewa Valleys. Be careful out there.
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I think the risk of flooding is further to the north. IMO
     
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  38. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The wind model posted is EC. You posted the morning. I posted (and referred to) the PM
    40-50 kts 'aint pretty skiing weather IMO.

    The only thing saving the resorts here is nightfall.
     
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  40. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    My commiserations ...
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    06 GFS still has it north, but it's more intense IMO



    Intensifying at the back end.

    [​IMG]
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not a bad thing. EC & GFS both like it for a bit of cooling (snow) Saturday morning, but the damage will be done by then. Might see 5 or so cents out of it on Saturday perhaps.
     
    #142 POW_hungry, Aug 29, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2016
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    #glimmerofhope
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    A week has past EC now looking better for some snow. If this solution verifys likely a foot+. lows inlet lifts a cold pool into the uppers with a good SW flow @700-850mb no 540dam. But the low should be enough for the top up.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    12z GFS this morning def turning to snow with cold air drawing up on back of low. EC backed away a little. Fingers crossed.
     
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  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    to what level?
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC maps out uppers on Saturday mid-morning 2C/-5C/-21C, so snow to around 1700m Saturday morning IMO. Maybe 1600m with some strong southerly.
     
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    At the level you hope it all stays well north of Victoria
     
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    pretty much what I was thinking... Main range/top of Perisher/Thredbo.
     
  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    1800/1900m
     
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