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Predictions August 30th - September 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 24, 2016.

  1. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is not a lot of lift serviced terrain above 1950m in Australia
     
  2. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    shame eh!
     
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  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Um, so walk...
     
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  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not really... Keeps the gapers away... ;)
     
  5. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Mt Perisher & Karrels (Thredbo) are around 2050 m.
     
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  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Location:
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    Mt Twynam 2195 m
    Mt Townsend 2210 m
    Mt Kosciusko 2228 m
    Rams Head 2190 m
    Mt Abbot 2190 m
    Carthuers 2150 m

    And and and.
     
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Bom going all out flood though.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
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    Not a lot of any terrain.
     
    rocketboy and Stiffler like this.
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  10. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looking a lot more positive on GFS for Friday. But Still looks wet Wednesday.

    The best terrain is up high on those peaks listed. All have faces as steep and critical as the Feather top.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    This looks dreadful IMO

    I predict Selwyn will close by the weekend
     
  12. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Exactly. That 4 dayer looks dreadful as FourSquare stated - resort or bc.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A little further north on GFS

     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    that's roughly 100mm better than it has looked.
     
    nfip, The Plowking, skidazza and 3 others like this.
  15. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Read !!! I haven't seen lifts on Kosci
     
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  16. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I think after Wed, Thursday the alps will get very little.
     
  17. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The shading represents only 1mm or more
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  19. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Good to see all this warm air and moisture dodging to the north. Looked dire yesterday morning when I checked.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC this afternoon.

    [​IMG]
     
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  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    eeekkkk.... Do not like the 4:30pm Perisher update ...

    Tuesday 30 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 7
    Late rain at times. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of rain in the evening. Winds northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    7 day Town Forecasts

    Precis Icon
    Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Thredbo Top Station 0 5
    [​IMG] Perisher Valley 0 7
    Wednesday 31 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 4
    Max 6
    Rain.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 40 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain with possible heavy falls in the early morning, tending showers remainder of the day with possible snow showers falling above 1900 metres in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h early, decreasing to 30 to 45 km/h by the late morning tending westerly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    Thursday 1 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 7
    Shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Snow possible above 1900 metres. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the morning.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    Friday 2 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 4
    Rain.
    Possible rainfall: 25 to 50 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1900 metres. Light winds becoming easterly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

    Saturday 3 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 4
    Showers.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers or snow. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

    Sunday 4 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 4
    Showers or snow at times.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Already posted above.
     
  24. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry CC, 2nd post is from the 4:30pm run. 1st post was from sparrow's hours this morning. Note the change for Friday, a doubling of the predicted rain.
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    ok (deleted the out of date one)!
     
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  26. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks terminal imo.

    But if Tuesdays pineapple can drench the interior and wipe out the heat soak then all we need is for Fridays low to carry some internal cold and it might save the spring.

    Not looking good at the moment but lets see how it plays.
     
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Sorry bro.
     
  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hardly terminal but far from desirable.
     
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  29. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Prediction is Pineapple Express imo.Yuk,wish we can abort mission.
    We will at Thredbo for the SSA races this Thursday to Monday.
     
  30. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Wally and The Plowking like this.
  31. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its looking like a tripple banger. Tuesday pineapple. Thursday pineapple redux, although slightly north then Friday, tropical low with the hint of bombing right over the ALPS.

    This has poison written all over it imo. Hope im wrong.
     
  32. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know what you mean though , for freeheelers there's a lot more ;)
     
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  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep gotta agree unfortunately , tho last week looked like this too and moisture went North & East of the Alps as have couple of the others this year.
    Granted the 540 line was also way North.
    Glimmer of hope later this week suggesting there may be some cooler air around , albeit after Friday...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag showing some support.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possible wind-hold for exposed Vic lifts from late-afternoon tomorrow (winds northerly 60-70km/h) gusting +80km/h.
    [​IMG]

    +CAPE for good storm activity across Eastern Vic /East Gippsland from Wednesday midday.
    [​IMG]

    very warm uppers for east coastline. (@850mb)
    [​IMG]
     
    #135 POW_hungry, Aug 29, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2016
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not looking awful wind wise on EC
    [​IMG]
    Will be watching flood levels in King, Ovens, Kiewa Valleys. Be careful out there.
     
    Wally likes this.
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think the risk of flooding is further to the north. IMO
     
    Wally likes this.
  38. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The wind model posted is EC. You posted the morning. I posted (and referred to) the PM
    40-50 kts 'aint pretty skiing weather IMO.

    The only thing saving the resorts here is nightfall.
     
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  40. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    My commiserations ...
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    06 GFS still has it north, but it's more intense IMO



    Intensifying at the back end.

    [​IMG]
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not a bad thing. EC & GFS both like it for a bit of cooling (snow) Saturday morning, but the damage will be done by then. Might see 5 or so cents out of it on Saturday perhaps.
     
    #142 POW_hungry, Aug 29, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2016
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #glimmerofhope
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    A week has past EC now looking better for some snow. If this solution verifys likely a foot+. lows inlet lifts a cold pool into the uppers with a good SW flow @700-850mb no 540dam. But the low should be enough for the top up.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    12z GFS this morning def turning to snow with cold air drawing up on back of low. EC backed away a little. Fingers crossed.
     
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  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    to what level?
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC maps out uppers on Saturday mid-morning 2C/-5C/-21C, so snow to around 1700m Saturday morning IMO. Maybe 1600m with some strong southerly.
     
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    At the level you hope it all stays well north of Victoria
     
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    pretty much what I was thinking... Main range/top of Perisher/Thredbo.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    1800/1900m
     
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