Predictions August 30th - September 4th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Aug 24, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yep, nothing but pain below 1800m I think.
     
  2. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    It does look like an upgrade on the tail. I think the best upgrade would be for it all to go 200km further North or East and quick IMO.
     
  3. melty68

    melty68 Dedicated Member

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    looks like a nasty amount of rain for coastal south coast nsw/Gippsland..ring the ses now
     
  4. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    May not be as bad as portrayed My Lady.[​IMG]




    RE: to the plot.
    Nothing is in stone Mick, EC models the temp @2metres to be hovering in negatives over the period on the plot,so
    i assume lowering likey caused by inversion in the upper level.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  5. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    As a rule of thumb it can snow anytime it is 5 degrees C or lower, as long as the upper atmospheric conditions are right for snowflake formation ie low pressure. These temps @925mb with the cold 500mb and the EC 2-m temp is suggestive of any snow that will fall will stick.
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    A little further north on latest GFS

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    May the trend continue!
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Good falls for the Main Range above 1800 feasible ?
     
  9. (Adam)

    (Adam) Active Member

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    Is there any chance of Buller not being totally washed out over the next few days?
     
  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yes, there will be at least 5 lifts open at the end of this period worst case scenario IMO
     
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  11. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Hard to tell.

    Whats coming tonight looks nasty and Adelaide Temps are showing no love but Friday is still very iffy.

    Jeffx has posed some charts above showing a possible upper level cold injection which is what we need. The Low is now looking to pass just East of the Alps meaning a South to South West moisture feed, as it rotates around the low, rather than a North Wester so this works for us.

    But the low is bouncing around between models so we really need for the current trough to clear and give us a good picture of how the low will behave but by then, it will be into Obs period so just strap in an enjoy the ride.

    Is weather, Is Good!

    And on the up side, they are saying that the wheat farmers are in for their best crop in decades, which we neeeeeed so not all bad.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    On a brighter note GFS upgrades the cold air for Saturday, with the front just starting to hit SW WA today.

    EC singing a similar tune but less moisture.
    IMO NSW could see 10-15cm above 1800m. Vic maybe up to 10cm. Lowering to 1600m throughout the day as it dries out.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Vic 850mb temps
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    12Z EC Main Range top-up.
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Those pro/accuweather plots show less snow be interesting to see the outcome.;)
     
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  15. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    Saturday 3 September - Perisher
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 4
    Rain.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain or snow, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h turning southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon.
     
  16. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    Sharp 540dam gets to up into VIC and just crossing the border .
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #166 jeffx, Aug 31, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2016
  17. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    Yr.no saying snow next 3 days, anyone care to comment on why?
     
  18. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    EC liking a deep low,would make for some interesting weather.
    [​IMG]
    Elongated with the weather on the NNE.
     
  19. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    BOM have upgraded to snow likely as well...............

    Thursday 1 September

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 6
    Shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Snow showers possible above 1900 metres. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the morning.

    Fire Danger - Low-Moderate

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    Friday 2 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 5
    Rain increasing.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Patchy morning fog. Very high (95%) chance of rain, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Snow falling above 1700 metres. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

    Saturday 3 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 3
    Rain or snow.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain or snow, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting west to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.
     
  20. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Look at what BOM has for max temps next week. 9/10 for several days. The BC crews must be itching for the road to CP to open early this year.
     
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  21. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    it's been running like a drain a couple of times this winter so figure they could readily do it if there was a reason to
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Which resort?
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Reckon Buller might do the best (ie: least worst) out of the coming 'events'
     
  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Because, yeah....naaaah.
     
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  25. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    4am Saturday looks dramatic on GFS

    [​IMG]
     
  26. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Road Cover is looking very thin going by Guthries Cam. Snow Guns seem to be sitting in easy to access pos and ready to be stored for the season.
     
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  27. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    Not unusual.
     
  28. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    From Eyre the road out looked very bare on Monday - after today it's probably clear the whole way except below the measuring hill past Spencer Creek. CP closes on the 18th - so there's no reason that RMS can't have the road cleared by the School Holidays - though they'll proably follow last year's plan of let the road dry out - then patch it up and finally open it sometime on the LWE. - yes off topic - but it all follows on from where the weather is and going
     
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  29. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    Too warm for proper snow,maybe only at the peaks.
    We'll all be doomed said Hanrahan
    (thanks for the PM)
     
    #179 cookieman, Aug 31, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2016
  30. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Active Member

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    road was cleared yesterday and today. someone had a rav4 up at eyre today.
     
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  31. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Your right, but If the pain continues Friday then they may have to open it early, at least to Mt P so they can bus people in to ski whats left on the P.
     
  32. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Wow, already doing it and only 1st Sept.
     
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  33. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs Dedicated Member
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    Because it is a model that has consistently got it wrong all season (speaking of Perisher experience). They consistently predict temperatures colder than eventuate with more snow than eventuates. There is obviously something fundamentally wrong in their model they use. It is is like they are predicting for 200-300m higher altitude. I have stopped paying any attention to it.

    There will be snow of some sort at perisher in the mix over the next few days though. Up high, and it will be wet.
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Think / pretty sure it's based on EC.....
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, I think it's overly-ambitious call for Friday night IMO. Main Range peaks for sure, but no snow in the resorts until early Saturday morning IMO. Down to as low as 1400m by Saturday evening.
     
  36. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    It is. But there has been something undefinably different this year (and it wasn't good)
     
  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Moisture.
    And most of the colder systems peaking over WA.
    So maybe it was on the money but just needed a little... calibration.
     
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  38. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    Awesome, time to get the bikes out :D

    [​IMG]
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I'm sorry, but this is plainly wrong. IMO
    yr = EC, they are one and the same.
    EC has been pretty accurate this season.
     
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  41. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    Wonderful! 3 days of snow then CC ;)
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    No one's been able to answer my question of what resort, because no YrNo prediction I see says snow for three days.;)
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    06Z GFS likes the back half of this system from Saturday daybreak (so does EC but GFS has it progged colder on 06Z).
    We can only hope it's got some gas left in the tank...
    [​IMG]
     
  44. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    Back to you, @Vandans ...
     
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  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah naah temps are usually as the op stated though
     
  47. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    3rd12z to 4th12z is looking likely the best chance for any snow. Note the prog 540 cell.
    Wreaks of unpredictability.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Wandering cold pools eh?
     
  49. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    cc you don't buy into the GFS solution?.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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