Predictions August 30th - September 4th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 24, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No, it's certainly possible. I just don't like betting the house on a cold pool and where it might go! :)
     
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  2. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does ACCESS-R stand for ACCESS-Rain ?
     
  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Line ball but it looks okay with respect to shape. Just needs the uppers to find there marbles. Clears nicely on Monday.

    Need to book in another main range BC trip.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps I was being a little flippant, and didn't make my point clear

    I am talking about Perisher, because that is what I follow. I understand they use EC. The modelling got the general trends correct, ie predicting fronts etc. However, there is no doubt in my mind that the computerised predictions for perisher, which use the EC data, this year have had problems with the callibration. Their models have consistently predicted temperatures 1-2 colder than other models, which often has resulted in predictions of snow when it seemed improbable and more likely to be rain. Others on the forum have commented on the same thing this year. Not sure why that is the case, but it has been quite a consistent trend.

    As I said, I only follow perisher, so I don't know if this is just perisher, or a problem with other oz resorts as well.
     
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    YR has several "Perisher" forecast points:
    Village at 1719m
    Mt Perisher 1930m
    Back Perisher 2000m
    I'm not sure which one you're using, but I'd expect the Village would be more representative of the resort as a whole.
    Certainly it can show negative temperature values for Mt Perisher/Back Perisher where it's zero or +ve at the village.
     
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  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    It really just looks mostly wet.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I really don't see much chance of snow until Saturday afternoon / evening. IMO
     
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  8. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Distinct lack of

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    I generally look at the village level for Perisher but don't think the snow icon is very accurate till the temps shown with it are at -2c and below.

    So this all looks very marginal IMO. May get some love above 1800m from saturday morning so Mt P could do all right and help kick Eyre T bar area later into spring. IMO
     
  10. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    As Danny Archer said, the "Vibe left this place long ago" haha

    But it will be back! All swings and roundabouts in this thing we call weather.

    Sat Pic indicates that the Low has some cooler temps (spinning over Western SA) but I cant see the cold core lasting long enough to reach the Alps. Especially with the Pineapple Trough leading it.
     
  11. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have to agree. Mt P should do ok later tomorrow and hold on into mid Sept.
     
  12. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Consensus with the GFS on the pool. Appears small on the plots,but as the crow flies its a large circumference.
     
    #212 jeffx, Sep 1, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2016
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    How much moisture is left by this stage? This looks very late Saturday to Sunday morning. Looks pretty dry to me IMO
     
  14. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The cut off vort looks loaded with moisture CC on the plot, air sounding samples @the 2nd-3rd will give a more information.


    [​IMG]
    What i do like is the split jet.



     
    #214 jeffx, Sep 1, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2016
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  15. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has 40 knot southerlies and 2C @850mb. Uppers 'aint fantastic but IMO we'll see snow in the resorts before it completely dries out around midday. If that happens 10-15cm in the resorts, if not ~5cm Saturday night/Sunday morning.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    jeffx, you know that I love your work but chasing the wandering cold is fraught with disappointment.

    Yes, it delivers when it hits but 1 in 13 bro.

    The devils elixir!
     
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  18. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What I like about the polar view is the lack of blocking/strengthening high in the Indian Ocean, what I am not so keen about is the significant warming of inland WA/sustenance of the inland Highs over central Aus. Hello spring.
     
    #219 POW_hungry, Sep 1, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2016
  20. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Friday night at Mt P.
     
  21. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    @The Fallen, thankyou and yeah true. i also like the trends with the steady lowering of the temps.
    [​IMG]



    @POW_hungry, Yeah that broad scale change has been showing on models now for a few weeks,the Indian monsoon
    is also retreating earlier than usual. Could be a early start wet season over the top-end this year.
     
  22. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Thanks Jeffx. Yep feeling the Vibe too this morning. Starting to show on GFS (yellow blob)

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty of moisture left in it according to EC 00Z
    [​IMG]
     
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  25. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Based upon what has happened at Perisher so far this afternoon I'd like to nominate jeffx for a knighthood.
     
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  26. Darrell W

    Darrell W Hard Yards

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    Can confirm It's been snowing at Hotham for about an hour. Pretty heavy with big flakes but only sticking to metal. Still a bit damp for anything else
     
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  27. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    00Z looking good.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    looks like its developing.
     
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  29. NIFF

    NIFF Hard Yards

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    All Hail Sir Jeffx !
     
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  30. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Wow , 3 of us picked this correct and of course yr!
     
  31. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    The vibe......
    Quoted for Truth Sir Jeffx for spreading the vibe!
     
  32. jeffx

    jeffx Hard Yards

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    It's all you guys the regular posters :clap:who are the backbone of these types of weather threads, raise a glass to you.:cheers:
    Off:fishing:
     
  33. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    jeffx, cheers and well done my good Sir!

    You tracked the wanderer and nailed it.

    A round of Elixer for the Man and keep em coming
     
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  34. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    You stand on the shoulders of midgets ;)