Australia Winter 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by rocketboy, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    2016 begins with a peaking El Nino, and the question is - how goes season 2016. Will La Nina roar back in as the warm waters of the Pacific slosh back our way. Or will it be a neutral ENSO year - The latest BOM ENSO update says either are equally possible - with a repeat El Nino the least likely.
    Adding to the Olympic Year good omens is that other old chestnut for seasonal prediction - Lake Eyre. And the news is good with water flowing in once again.

    ++ Birds set to return to Lake Eyre to breed as inland lakes fill with water ++

    Whether it has any impact on our winter season is debateable - but others swear by it.
     
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    @The Plowking told me it's an olympic year and that guarantees an amazing season, so i've already booked 4 weeks at the beginning of June and expect the entire mountain to be open.
     
  3. Mufts

    Mufts Potato Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. kaegee

    kaegee One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok lm in. Might order some 120 phats too.
     
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  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Why so skinny bro?
     
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  6. kaegee

    kaegee One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Didn't want to go too heavy for skinning up under the Kosi chair.. Earned is best no!
     
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  7. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That guy sounds like a legit meteorologist.
    Looking back over the past 25 years evidence seems solid.
     
  8. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    That would be all of May at Lake Mountain.
    A sage and foxy decision.
     
  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last week in September at baw baw too.
     
  10. cruisin along

    cruisin along A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going with the school kids in July .....I wanted NZ but outvoted so BlueCow is it.
     
  11. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Got my Thredbo season pass already based on @The Plowking olympic year theory, now to pass time waiting for the snow to fall. :fishing:
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I stayed home from Japow duties with the olde mates.
    New touring rig is on the menu.
    Pray the good karma Yuki gods smile on us all.
    Dont wanna be greedy so I'll settle for just deep an dry.
     
  13. Marty_McSly

    Marty_McSly Staying the **** at home. Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just saw play at the SCG washed out for a full day for the first time since 1974.The good old days are back!
     
  14. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well I have 45 days at Perisher ( season ticket already in hand , accommodation also booked and paid for) spread from late June to mid September. I am thinking maybe a late start , for decent snow anyway , with a late finish as well to the season which should be better than average. How much better than average is open to debate and in the lap of the almighty snow goddess. I have already started the time honoured traditional offerings of copious amounts of distilled liquor and the burning of the savage beast ( lamb seems to get best results) to guarantee the almighty snow goddess looks down on us and favours us with much winter bounty. The also time honoured tradition of the celebrated snow dancing , on which the almighty snow goddess is also somewhat partial to , will begin next weekend.

    Lets hope it is not all in vain and a good season is forthcoming:woohoo:
     
  15. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    An Olympic year + Lake Eyre with water = good season for sure :thumbs:
     
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  16. BobGnarly

    BobGnarly One of Us

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  17. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Has the below average hokkido/Honshu season got this happening already. Ok I'm in. niseko style track outs at hot ham from the long weekend.
     
  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    It's still way too early to tell what's happening and this El Nino is really throwing a spanner in the works.

    Come back to this thread in March IMO.....
     
  19. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Current El Nino pattern is in decline , slow decline but decline nonetheless.
     
  20. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like the late burst in El Nino was just that - and is now back to following a pretty standard decay process. Overall summer has been wet and mild in the snowy mts, and along the NSW south coast. All up a pretty average summer that in all likelihood will be following by an average Autumn/Winter. So my money is on a typical winter that will build slowly to an average peak depth of <180cm in late Sept at Spencer Creek. As long as we get some nice cold nites in May and the water temps in Guthega pondage fall nicely snow making will get June going at Perisher and all should be fun and games in our typical aussie slush as per usual in just over 4 months from now.
     
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  21. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    We got it all this year - 2 year cycle, 4 year cycle, olympic year, water in eyre ;)

    So yes average to better is looking like a fair call. But as they say ask again in October.
     
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  23. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've already booked - its gunna be a shocker :headbang:
     
  24. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    http://www.mountainwatch.com/snow-n...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer


    Australian Seasonal Snow Outlook | The Grasshopper

    Well, well, well, here we are again. The Footy season is heating up and there's a cool bite to the breeze in the mornings – Winter must be close! Cast your mind back to this time last year, and you'll remember that last winter was dominated by a powerful El Nino that continued to grab headlines all summer long and also contributed to the record warm global temperatures recorded in January and February. However, time is on our side. Our arch nemesis is showing signs of weakness; its cruel rampage is coming to an end as it runs out of steam. Right now, we're forecast to return to a neutral ENSO state over the coming months. On the face of it, this seems like good news for the Aussie Alps right!? Not so fast, padre! Every good story has a twist, there are unforeseen enemies lurking beneath the surface that may be intent on ruining our quest for snow.

    Where's El Nino at?
    The most important thing you need to know in relation to the upcoming season is the current El Nino is weakening. Forecast models are in good enough agreement and I can confidently say the warm water across the Eastern Pacific will gradually dissipate, leaving us in a neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) state by the time winter shows up. On the surface, this is good news for the Aussie Alps.

    By now you know I divide El Nino’s into two different pedigrees: wrong’uns and classic’s. A classic El Nino increases the chances of high-pressure systems parking their fat arse over South East Australia, effectively scuppering our chances for any decent snow. This is exactly what we saw during the first half of last winter before a few chance snow storms came to rescue the season in mid-July.

    NB: If all this talk of El Nino leaves you scratching your head, click here to get the lowdown.

    Now for a bit of good news: Over the last 44 years roughly 20cm more snow has been recorded in neutral years compared to either La Nina or El Nino years. This corresponds to an average peak snow depth of 187cm against a median for all years of 176cm.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    http://www.tafir.com.au/snowdepth.shtml

    I'd be very happy if the above forecast came true however as you say RB - all the elements descending into 2016.

    Anything over 2m is good these days.....
     
  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    The Plowking likes this.
  27. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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  28. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anything over 2m is awesome these days. Thank <diety> for snowmaking.
     
  29. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't think snow making is going to get the same run of conditions they had last year.
     
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  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    When you look at the forecast minimum temperature profiles it's hard to argue with this.
     
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  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmm.
     
  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't think so. Just looked over there and looks like he's about to post his first gfs forecast for season...
     
  33. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Needs more Olympic year graph.
     
  35. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Moar Negative Sam, I like that guy!

    @Majikthise last season would have been woeful without the good SM weather, we skied from opening to closing thanks to that.
     
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  36. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got so dull even Frog is bored with Snowatch.......

    Ocean observations...... still darned warm in the water... swam a lap of Bondi this morning sans wetsuit
     
  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well the Victorians got an early start to the season according to Snowatch

    30cm base... nice...
     
  38. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Water is still over 22 deg. Tutu required if wearing a wetsuit.
     
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  39. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    [​IMG]
    The latitudinal elevation of these low pressure systems is significantly higher than in previous years.
     
  40. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Could we develop a new index - running daily/monthly average system latitudinal elevation and compare with index of good and bad years to offer insights into the coming season? Is it possible? Does BOM or other weather stations record location of systems? What does Gerg think?
     
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  41. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's basically what the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) plotted above is. Generally negative values mean fronts/lows pushing further north:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/SAM-what.shtml
     
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  42. AdamDaze

    AdamDaze First Runs

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    Uh huh. Yes. Words. Interesting, iiiiiiiiinteresting. *Steeples fingers*. I totally understand.
     
  43. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    @janesweather points out we're heading for La Nina and -ve IOD. Using above graphs puts likelihood of a decent season higher. A -ve trending AAO is all we really need to give us the best hope.

    [​IMG]
     
    #43 Snorkler, May 23, 2016
    Last edited: May 23, 2016
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  44. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Current Pacific sub-surface temperatures look very similar to 2010 and 1998.

    Can't remember how 1998 skied but 2010 went from the worst July Spencer's Creek depth on record to record snowiest August in Victoria.
     
  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    (And Olympic year)
     
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  46. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. DbSki

    DbSki Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  48. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    I don't like putting up a long term forecast for a snow season as a whole, but I've been asked by too many people not to respond! Here's my fence-sitting take on what's ahead: http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast
     
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  49. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    These are amazing charts, thanks for sharing. Interesting that neutral ENSO/SOI looks to be better than La Nina conditions (marginally). I'd always assumed La Nina was best.
     
  50. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    well lets hope Alpine Way doesnot crash again with a mammoth slip...that should be factored into modelling.....better hope those plant operators arenot going for overseas holiday...:oops: