Australia Winter 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by rocketboy, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Like what I hear @janesweather .

    It all comes down to the Oscillation Index and the injection of cold air to meet the moisture for fireworks.
     
  2. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes and no.:confused:
     
  3. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    might as well make this the annual SC your best guess thread eh?

    186 cm 25th August . I am figuring there is a fair chance of two decent falls happening in quick succession to give a very temporary peak. i think there will be a lot of snow, but also other precipitation types that will challenge depth accumulation
     
  4. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    125cm Sept 1
     
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  5. Normo

    Normo Mostly Harmless Ski Pass: Gold

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    160cm Aug 28...........just 'cause! :)
     
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  6. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    236cm 1st September. We're due!
     
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  7. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    287cm Sep 3
     
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  8. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay wild card guess considering I read cyclone tracks better. 190cm 8th September.
     
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  9. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I think we will crack the 2m mark this year.

    Going for 209cm on September 9th
     
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  10. TIA_Macca

    TIA_Macca Hard Yards

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    all comes down to what happens between the big systems
     
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  11. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    249cm Sep 3rd
     
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  12. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us

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    195cm 19th Aug.
     
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  13. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Sept 12th
    264cm
     
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  14. crackson

    crackson A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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  16. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    169cm, July 21st.
     
  17. Kirbie

    Kirbie Hard Yards

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    201cm 25th August
     
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  18. kaegee

    kaegee One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    15 cm every night while in there . Blue sky and deserted . Thanks .
    191.5 Sept 1 .
     
  19. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    La Nina conditions tend to give slightly warmer conditions - a greater proportion of the precipitation is rain. El Nino is drier, and sometimes warmer (but sometimes colder - like last year)

    My call from a few months ago (and I still stand by it) is a late but good season. I don't think we'll be skiing until July at the earliest, but it will be good when it does hit.
     
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  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I agree on La Nina giving slightly warmer (wetter) conditions there ice_man

    With El Nino years, you tend to get above average day time temps but still nice & cold night time temps so the snow making tends to save those seasons (read 2006).

    Also tend to agree that I think we'll get a good late season this year too.....late August & into September could be real good IMO
     
  21. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well I have 45 days at Perisher ( season ticket already in hand , accommodation also booked and paid for) spread from late June to mid September. I am thinking maybe a late start , for decent snow anyway , with a late finish as well to the season which should be better than average. How much better than average is open to debate and in the lap of the almighty snow goddess. I have already started the time honoured traditional offerings of copious amounts of distilled liquor and the burning of the savage beast ( lamb seems to get best results) to guarantee the almighty snow goddess looks down on us and favours us with much winter bounty. The also time honoured tradition of the celebrated snow dancing , on which the almighty snow goddess is also somewhat partial to , will begin next weekend.

    Lets hope it is not all in vain and a good season is forthcoming.

    Kelpieboy, Jan 10, 2016

    You heard it here first , late start , late finish for above average season ;):cheers: . Only change I made to those plans was a move to mid July till end of September.
     
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  22. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Pete from snowatch is tipping Spencers Creek to break 2m in August this year. Imo it will be a slow start like last year, but epic August and September.:)
     
  23. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well I have absolutely no idea what the season is going to bring. Even though many of us hate the uncertainty of the conditions, in honesty it is actually half the attraction as well. You can only ski on what mother nature provides, and some days it is fantastic and others not so much! As someone pointed out, you can only know it is the day of the season in retrospect. All I know is I'll ski as many days as I can, no matter what we get.
     
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  24. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    If I do manage to get down @Kelpieboy and you're around I'll see if I can meet up and show you a few secrets of Perisher ;)
     
  25. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    I predict a repeat of 2010. F***-all snow until the first week of August. Then four weeks of awesomeness. It will get all get washed away at lower altitudes by the middle of September.

    Peak depth of 180 cm in the last week of August.
     
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  26. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Your on :cheers:
     
  27. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    IMO a late peak in last week of September 215 cm. A peaky/trough SC graph made from a lot of heavy snow and clear snow events.
     
  28. mr muddle

    mr muddle Hard Yards

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    Hope to be waaay wrong.

    127cm August 25.

    The wet will come the temps won't until its too late
     
  29. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm tipping a normal start about June 20- July 5 then peaking at 201cm 1st week of September.
     
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  30. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm going 2 bob each way. Some good heavy snow when cold enough but some nasty rain also.
     
  31. mr muddle

    mr muddle Hard Yards

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    yeah i think this year is likely to be a hit or miss affair with no in between. I am erring on the pessimistic side though, so i dont get my hopes up
     
  32. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I think your thoughts are sound. I'm sticking with the Olympic year theory a bit due to 60 years of experience. I know the BOM have said warmer then normal bit you don't have to have a uni degree to say that. And they have been known to be wrong on one other occasion haha
     
  33. mr muddle

    mr muddle Hard Yards

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  34. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I just want to go skiing already! :woohoo: Any bets on which VIC resort will have a rideable slope and when?
     
  35. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hotham, July 1
     
  36. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Have done some research regarding opening weekend. Based on 50cm or more of " NATURAL " snow being the bare minimum for skiing I would say in the past 61 years there has been approx. 16 years based on Spencers Creek snow depths that you could ski on Queens birthday. 38 years between mid June and Mid July and 7 years after that all the way to August 5 in 1989. So please don't be disheartened about no snow for opening weekend. Some of our biggest years didn't kick off until July.
     
  37. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep it seems this year will be a late bloomer. I'm organising my main trip for mid August, fingers crossed.
     
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  38. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    On the money there mate.
     
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  39. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Yeep. we heading dow for 2 weeks from 13th Aug. Fingers crossed it pays off. No guarantees.
     
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  40. Vanders

    Vanders Hard Yards

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    August 24-28th on the main range, I'll be there!
     
  41. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    My pink lady apple tree has just started to change. Winter should be here in a couple of weeks.
     
  42. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    A lot of pessimism in this thread. Come on people, no respect for the Olympic year trend?
     
  43. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Refer my previous post
     
  44. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    You know there's no great news on the snow for opening wkd front when the resorts social media posts are old promo videos instead of hyperventilation about a 5cm dusting.........
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane Bunn just said 10-15cm over the weekend
     
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  46. mr muddle

    mr muddle Hard Yards

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    My current thinking is that we are still talking about this limited system and no one has a predictions thread up for anything coming yet. Opening weekend is always pretty limited IME. I am not up with the the obtaining of longer range charts but those that are appear to be quiet on this front IMO. Does that imply that there is limited on the horizon also?
     
  47. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Correct. If you want decent skiing this month i.e. at least half a resort open, NZ could be the go. I'm definitely thinking of ditching a Perisher trip in a few weeks in favour of there. FV will get pretty boring for a few days
     
  48. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    NZ (south Island) is looking very tempting atm. Some of the shots of TC look delicious.
    I think Aus will be a lot slower to kick off this year but still have some good days in August.
     
  49. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Some of their cams look like most of it has been washed away as well.
     
  50. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This article from the SMH is quite good. It goes into a scientific analysis of factors affecting snow depth, using data from enso / iod and sam shown earlier in the the thread. Also discusses accumulated snow depth in snow depth days, which I had not seen before. That chart is actually interesting, you can see the decline over the years, but the chart actually looks more variable and spiky the longer back you go.

    This article is certainly an improvement on the usual rubbish / advertorials you get in the paper, saying it's going to be a bumper season because a few cms has fallen in june!

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/w...be-just-over-the-horizon-20160610-gpgmbv.html
     
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