Australia Winter 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by rocketboy, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    How is this observations of SST and transformation of elninio to la nina since January. Watch the Equator and also compare the northern (warmer) and southern hemispheres (colder)

    January 28
    [​IMG]
    February 29
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    March 31
    [​IMG]

    April 28
    [​IMG]

    May 28
    [​IMG]

    June 30

    [​IMG]

    July 18

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    La-Nina seems to be really struggling to get going.

    On the other hand, the SSTa situation to our West looks quite favorable in some regards - tends to cause cold fronts to peak near us, good moisture in-feed from -ve IOD, strong temp gradients in aforementioned fronts etc. The downside is more pre-frontal r@#n than usual.

    This spring will be super-volatile IMO.
     
  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is running against a growing postive PDO which might be keeping it closer to neutral ENSO

    Overall, the ENSO record mostly shows a big fast swing the other way after a strong El Nino. This time might be different due to a flip to a postive PDO - or the Pacific SSTs are warming on a general basis and the evolution of ENSO cycles is changing from the 20th century observation record.
     
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  4. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    I observe that this thread has a world record number of acronyms in it. WTF?
     
  5. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    TBA Re WTF
     
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  6. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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  7. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Article on the IOD
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest seasonal outlooks
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Looking good for the 2nd half of the ski season to me IMO
     
  10. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does that suggest things may be good for the October long weekend? A long way out I know but... Maybe
     
  11. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Based on that I may book a week camping at Jindy in September school hols.
     
  12. RayC

    RayC A Local

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    Are those odds available on Sportsbet? :evil:
     
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  13. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Silly question, slightly off weather, but does anyone ski moguls now or are all the runs groomed smooth.
     
  14. walrusballs

    walrusballs Hard Yards

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    This is great... LOL
     
  15. TIA_Macca

    TIA_Macca Hard Yards

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    Its hard to ski moguls when my carve ski's are 106mm underfoot ;)
     
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  16. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Got an answer for me.
     
  17. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Start a topic in 'snow' I am sure you will get plenty of answers.
     
  18. person s

    person s Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    there has been a group of kids this weekend at Blue Cow doing mogul training
     
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  19. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I haven't been able to ski since the early 70's and I'm just curious now. Back then there was now such thing as man made snow or grooming. Every one skied moguls because most of the time that's all there was.
     
  20. person s

    person s Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    now they groom special mogul slopes for racing
     
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  21. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    They still form all over the hill.
     
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  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are good moguls all over Mt P and I'm sure elsewhere. Lower slopes of International are forming nicely and won't be groomed. By the afternoon middle Eyre is also well and truly moguled up.
     
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  24. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    If any one is not sure if we have had enough rain yet just ask the farmers around Wang. This shot taken 15 minutes ago
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reluctantly.....
    Old kneez don't need the stress , I'm saving what left in them for the Pow ;)
     
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  26. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Lots of snow and lots of rain
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    And overall tracking not too bad. Looks like Hotham is spending just as much time above the average as below. Not an epic season but a decent one.
     
  28. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Pretty hard to get excited about August yet. Long term not much on offer. Can all change in a moment though.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yeah it seems that way. I'm thinking the 2nd half of August is going to be BIG
     
  31. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hope you're right, other wise a very early finish when the hair dryers come on.
     
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  32. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Lake Eildon at 51.2% and still rising. Bring it on.
     
  33. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The skiing would be great this year if W.A. had a 2000 Mt. range in the sth. west corner
     
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  34. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    LWT all good but so near yet so far(k)!
     
  35. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    working on the near worst case scenario, this is how it could be looking
    I should have taken the rate of spring ablation (-which is ridiculously consistent) from the peak but I couldn't bring myself to do it
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  37. Vanders

    Vanders Hard Yards

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    I don't understand all this science, I don't want to see anything but snow, snow, snow!!!!
    :tany:
     
  38. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    starting to feel very good about this :)
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  40. Ziggy

    Ziggy A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Falls Ck snow depths. Produced by Tony of Alpenhorn Motel, Tawonga Sth.

     
  41. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Pity that 1m storm forecast for early August disappeared off the face of the earth with only one day to go(so much for the 48hour rule of thumb).
    11 days to go! Only 12cm per day needed lol
     
  42. Tasjez

    Tasjez Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    Further evidence of the impact of fronts peaking over South West WA, an not making it across the bite!
     
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  43. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    there is that consistent rate of ablation again..
     
  44. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is the trend for the fronts hitting Perth a short term seasonal thing or a shifting of weather patterns long term?
     
  45. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Happens some years. We normally start winter with fronts peaking over Perth and then it gradually shifts East. Normally coincides with the warming of the Southern Indian which then forces warm water around the SW WA Hook and into the Bight.

    This trend has two benefits. The warming of the Southern Indian weakens the Highs and pushes them North and the warm in the Bight feeds instability as the fronts approach and also bumps up the moisture.

    This year the Indian and Bight started warm and both cooled over the winter. Lots of other factors in play this year but i have noticed that the trend in the good years does follow the warm water moving into the bight mid winter rather than the other way around.

    It was an interesting season and a lot of data to crunch to put it into perspective.
     
  46. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Indian ocean was the major player IMO as we copped a lot of moisture streaming in from the NW causing a fair bit of pre frontal rain
     
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  47. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting indeed .... To come back to @MickM s question, was this an anomaly or will we see more of this happening in future seasons?
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Year-to-year, it's a bit of an anom but by climatic scale we see seasons like 2016 every 5-6 years (normal) IMO.
    As below, cold and drier in the West, mild and wet in the East.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  49. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Guess I was wrong, well wrong! LWT shifted to peak over Perth, take a dip over SE Oz as we saw
     
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  50. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Excuse my ignorance... LWT is???
     
  51. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long Wave Trough
     
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