Australian ski industry on a downhill slope

Discussion in 'Snow Talk' started by Hunter, Aug 5, 2017.

  1. skichanger

    skichanger Dedicated Member
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    ROFL not having a go at you but this did make me laugh. There are lots of incidents in a wide range scientific fields where the people with "the qualifications required" have incorrectly "gathered the evidence" so they can "draw the conclusions" they want. Some has been deliberate some has not. But having the "qualifications required" does not make bad research etc valid.

    Conversely. lots of people without formal qualifications actually know what they are talking about.
     
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  2. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    Put that newspaper (and wannabe television) reporter/idiot in charge. His initials are AB, and that's as close as I ever want to get to putting his name in print!
     
  3. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    It's as much about the timing and nature of runoff as anything. I don't think snowy hydro would put the resources that they do into snow hydrology if it was as trivial as you maintain ;)

    FYI they put the number close to 50%
     
  4. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd Dedicated Member
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    It's just hydrology. The original point is that if the snowline heads north then for a while, presumably, we may survive on rainfall (though noting that is supposed to dry as GW kicks in). Shame we don't have mountains up the Top End.
     
  5. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Part of the Furniture
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    Take a full dam as your starting point. Let the precipitation be rain. It all pours into the dam and overflows almost immediately. Let the precipitation be snow. It hangs around on the slopes for weeks, if not months. By the time it melts water has drained out of the dam through use. The water does not overflow, but is retained. As the snow melts it is constantly, and relatively slowly, replenishing the water emptying from the dam through use and evaporation.
     
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  6. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd Dedicated Member
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    True for a large snowpack (eg: Colorado). Not so much for Oz.
     
  7. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Part of the Furniture
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    It is true for any snowpack. The stuff sitting on the ground is stuff that has not reached a dam yet.

    Have you ever had a wander around the NSW high country in summer? The place is criss crossed with aqueducts designed to capture water from everywhere and funnel it into storages.
     
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  8. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    In the scheme of things, Colorado does not have a particularly large snow pack.

    Anyway, Snowy Hydro consider it to be pretty important, and rather central to how the whole scheme works. I know how sensitive a number of reservoirs in NZ are to snowpack variability, and (interestingly?) none of them have a snowmelt runoff proportion as high as the snowy hydro scheme. The snowy mountains have quite a handy hypsometric advantage over the Southern Alps actually, their geomorphology is very conducive to harvesting snow.

    Snow hydrology is not quite "just" hydrology.
     
  9. dawooduck

    dawooduck Pool Room
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    Dryer winters, more frost, increased summer rains ...
     
  10. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    This is not limited to science tbh , happens in any sphere of life. Surely you might grant someone the intelligent to sift the wheat from the chaff so to speak and recognise those that seek to further their own ends with incorrect information gathering principles. Then again maybe you don't.
     
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  11. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Part of the Furniture
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    What have you observed?
     
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  12. shabu_shabu

    shabu_shabu Active Member

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    ROFL
     
  13. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd Dedicated Member
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    70% contribution by snowpack to western US storage. Not the same as Oz. We get a contribution from the snowpack but it is not as much. Rain events are very important for us across the year in addition to the snowpack. Don't forget that the rule of thumb is an inch of rain equates to around 10 inches of (uncompressed) snow.
     
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  14. Hully

    Hully Dedicated Member

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    A great example of how desperate ski marketing has become.... I cynically suggested Snow McSnowface to Miss Snow It All and she ran with it.
     
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  15. skichanger

    skichanger Dedicated Member
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    :thumbs: Just made me think of all the people who claim to be authorities because of their qualifications. So worries me when people believe what they are told without questioning or thinking about it themselves. Current politics ... cough, cough.....
     
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  16. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Anything above 10% generally has a noticeable impact downstream. But carry on in ignorance if you will.

    How often do you get 10% snow in Australia?
     
  17. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd Dedicated Member
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    What are you rabbiting on about?
     
  18. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Snow hydrology. What about you?
     
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  19. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    Well, now you know. Mt Selwyn is about 18km WSW of Mt Hotham. Altitude 1411m.
     
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  20. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd Dedicated Member
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    Oh is that what you call it :rolleyes:
     
  21. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    A snow lovers nightmare. :(

     
  22. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Well, given it is a large part of what I do every day...
     
  23. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    It must be a conspiracy.
     
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  24. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Did you really read it? Or are you just making s*** up on the internet?

    If you did actually read it, surely finding the link to the report that you read which was published by an authoritative scientific agency should be easy to find.
     
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  25. Annabuzzy

    Annabuzzy Part of the Furniture
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    CSIRO were predicting a 54% drop in snowfall by 2020 with more rain events washing away that snow which did fall.

    Since you know everything yo already knew that
     
  26. Annabuzzy

    Annabuzzy Part of the Furniture
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    As above
     
  27. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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  28. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    The actual text from the 2003 CSIRO report Executive Summary says
    And
    That report makes no definitive statement regarding reduction in snowfall by 2020 in any location.

    The 2014 report can be found here. Relevent sections dealing with snowfall state
    Nothing in that report either re: definitive statement regarding reduction in snowfall by 2020 in any location.

    Are you making sh*t up again?
     
  29. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    As an aside, I'm sure all Australian snow enthusiasts are grateful that CSIRO published their report in 2003 and that the snow industry acted on it, because without the significant investment in snowmaking over the past decades we'd be f&*$#$.
     
  30. Ramshead

    Ramshead Dedicated Member

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  31. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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  32. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd Dedicated Member
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    I'm not sure what you do all day.....LOL
     
  33. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    I remember it clearly
    you kept trying to shift the goalposts to your advantage after the bet was made
     
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  34. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    I had an interesting conversation with a resort employee a little while ago.

    As climate change marches on, and as snowmaking technology continually improves, the resorts are expecting in future to have longer seasons than currently, but on fewer runs.
     
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  35. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd Dedicated Member
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    I guess if they really improve the technology then you could just spray it over your local hill and not bother with heading to the current ski locations. Sure would beat having to drive 'n all. Not that I necessarily want to see that happen...I prefer the real stuff over snowmaking any day, and the views and mountain air would be missing.

    Th comments on participation rates (skiing vs snow visit) are an interesting factor too. I always had the feeling that when they changed the school holiday schedules a fair while back, so that the September period was dropped or pushed out a lot, the whole atmosphere changed....visitation seemed to drop off and you really could fire a cannon a fair bit of the time. But maybe it was the trend to snow visits rather than coming up specifically to ski that made it seem like that.
     
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  36. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd Dedicated Member
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    I guess if they really improve the technology then you could just spray it over your local hill and not bother with heading to the current ski locations. Sure would beat having to drive 'n all. Not that I necessarily want to see that happen...I prefer the real stuff over snowmaking any day, and the views and mountain air would be missing.

    Th comments on participation rates (skiing vs snow visit) are an interesting factor too. I always had the feeling that when they changed the school holiday schedules a fair while back, so that the September period was dropped or pushed out a lot, the whole atmosphere changed....visitation seemed to drop off and you really could fire a cannon a fair bit of the time. But maybe it was the trend to snow visits rather than coming up specifically to ski that made it seem like that.
     
  37. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    I was musing on this recently, basically when it became apparent after this dump that we would have a good spring. It's my favourite time to ski but the resorts are deserted.

    My theory was that due to school holidays and the whole Interschools juggernaut (in Victoria at least) with all the school trials etc that families are forced to ski too much too early in the season, and by the time spring rolls around they're exhausted both physically and financially.
     
  38. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd Dedicated Member
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    I'm sure that it is a factor in it.
     
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  39. Boodwah

    Boodwah Dedicated Member
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    No. Just added 'in the context of business as usual', and 'exempting a nuclear winter, asteroid or massive volcano'.
     
  40. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    In NZ, I was musing that there are simply not enough mountains/high country in Australia to allow for much more expansion of resorts. In terms of big south to east facing slopes above 1600m, with reasonable shelter and easy access to the bottom for building. In NSW there's the Twin Valleys and *maybe* one or two spots north of Guthega?

    A sub-range of a sub-range of the NZ Alps, European Alps, or Rockies has more terrain and skiing potential than the entire Australian high country.
     
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  41. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    Bogong would be an incredible ski resort. Not going to happen of course.
     
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  42. skichanger

    skichanger Dedicated Member
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    Even if there were lots of suitable terrain the political and bureaucratic hurdles would be a bigger problem.
     
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  43. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Mmm but I think part of the reason for the bureaucratic hurdles *is* the lack of suitable terrain.

    Naturally, people want to put a country's most outstanding landscapes in national parks. But when you have five mountain ranges, while the highest/prettiest areas will be protected, the front ranges and lower slopes are more likely to be state forests, private land or otherwise more available for plain recreation.
     
  44. skichanger

    skichanger Dedicated Member
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    Sure.

    Actually this year is 50 year anniversary of NPWS.
     
  45. Chaeron

    Chaeron Dedicated Member
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    Nelse/ Spion would be interesting too.

    And as for Buller - someone talk sense into state government's head and let the resort tar that Stirling-Buller connecting road so you can get traffic flow. We're not talking pristine country here, FFS.
     
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  46. Annabuzzy

    Annabuzzy Part of the Furniture
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    I repeated what was reported.

    God only seemingly minutes ago you were denying there was any such report. A Damascus conversion for you.

    I think it's pretty fair comment CSIRO we're trying to give the impression the local ski industry was up the shit. Only the maximum was reported, which no doubt they fully intended.

    No shit making at all.
     
  47. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Part of the Furniture
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    Noooooo
     
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  48. Richard

    Richard Addicted Member
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    The Industry had a 2020 theme at it's annual gathering in 2012 - can't say categorically if it was in response to early CSIRO reports but it was something very similar - the message was clearly 'there is positive risk of less ski-able snow by 2020'.

    No one was laughing it off, but similarly no one was interpreting it as a doomsday countdown either. It was just a message of 'expect decline in consistent natural snow pack'

    The five majors with enough capital took the message on board and the outward manifestation has been more investment in snow making - but they were going to do that anyway because snow making categorically delivers ROI for any ski resort (like our AU ones) who need to guarantee their marginal areas and smooth out skiable days. So the 2020 projections of risk just added more investment incentive as a mitigation tactic.

    That's my lens on it anyway.
     
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  49. shabu_shabu

    shabu_shabu Active Member

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    At no stage did Rush deny the existence of the report. The request was to provide a reference.

    It was you who used the high end number (out of context) purportedly to make your point, not CSIRO.

    "... which no doubt they fully intended." Ah yes, it's a conspiracy.
     
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  50. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    You've got to remember when you discuss issues with @Annabuzzy it's about the general vibe, the details aren't important. That's why he refuses to provide links to support his vibe.
     
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