Bushfire Australian Widespread Bushfire Risk on Tuesday 12th November - and beyond

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Stillcold, Nov 10, 2019.

  1. Stillcold

    Stillcold One of Us

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    according to the Central Coast Boomers on Facebook.

    Yes its going to be hot and windy but it's not like we haven't had hot and windy days before.
     
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  2. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. We've all been here many times, but they are just in their warnings. We have a whole cohort of bored schoolies abound atm as well. Witnessed a tribe of them in the bush around our property only today, all puffing away on ciggies and drinking grog. It doesn't take much to explode the bush. Have your action/evac plans in place now, regardless.
     
  3. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's dry on the coast
    The humidity has been low for a while
     
  4. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    I will be down there from next Saturday. I hope I am spared the horror that comes with bushfires. Yes the bush does burn in North Queensland but nowhere near the ferocity of what happens down south.
     
  5. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...as a nun's. We have had a few decent rainfalls over the past 2 months to help with the soil moisture in Hornsby Shire......BUT...we have a shedload of deadwood, leaves, gum bark from the past 2 year drought that will go off like a petrol bomb surrounding us.
     
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  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not good.
    80kmph winds here at 36-41 degrees. At 8% humidity
    Probably the worst conditions and potential in 20 years
     
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  7. TOFF

    TOFF Im kind of a big deal Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cool and damp in Melbourne.
    Grass is lovely and green
     
  8. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...Croquet or maybe Bocce...go for it.
     
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  9. AlanD

    AlanD Part of the Furniture

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    RFS is working of catastrophic on Tuesday in our area. We've received multiple warnings today.

    We're stopped working on the new house and are now prepping the property for bush fires on Tuesday. This includes having everything organised to take the horses off the property. Really crispy dry in the paddocks and a lot of leaf matter in the scrub and treed areas. Very good chance I won't head down to Sydney to see my clients on Tuesday
     
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  10. Chaeron

    Chaeron A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Take care out there!
     
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  11. AlanD

    AlanD Part of the Furniture

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    Thanks. I feel for the poor buggers further North how have been coping this for weeks and also the RFS people.
     
  12. Ultrasteez

    Ultrasteez A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have to drive to Wollongong on Tuesday for a funeral.
     
  13. AlanD

    AlanD Part of the Furniture

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    Ok, yes we've had hot and windy days before. We're well down on rain for the last couple of years which in our area means there is very little lush growth.

    Yes we've had some big rain events, but that has led to quite a bit of growth, but the lack of subsequent rain means all that growth has turned brown and much of it is now on the ground dead. Having rain can be double edged as a result.

    Sydney itself and I'll include the Central Coast hasn't had and significant fires for 25 years (1994 when Sydney was encircled and also had signicant fires inside the perimeter). Blue Mountain last really big fires weire 6 and 19 years ago but have in someways been fortunate enough to have quite a few smaller fires across much of the region.

    Due West of the Central coast in the Wollombi National Park 50km away from us and 70 km from downtown Gosford a fire has doubled in size in the last 5 days and is now burnt thru 250 sq km. Small in comparison to what's going on up the coast at Port Mac etc. But there is bugger all between that fire and Gosford and in high winds that fire could be on top of you in an hour or two. We had the smoke from those fires over us on Thursday/Friday and you couldn't see the houses on the property 1km away.

    So while you might be thinking the boomers are over reacting, RFS has predicted catastrophic conditions for Tuesday and are already issue SMS warnings here. We're taking the warnings seriously.
     
  14. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    I look at the bush around Port Stephens and there is a thick tangle of dried (really dried) leaf litter and undergrowth. I don't know when it last burned but the place is a bomb.
     
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  15. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    https://www.smh.com.au/national/rfs-raises-sydney-fire-warning-to-catastrophic-20191110-p5397q.html


    Catastrophic fire danger is forecast for Sydney and its surrounds on Tuesday for the first time, as a statewide total fire ban has been called for Monday to help contain more than 60 fires which continue to burn in NSW.

    It is the first time the NSW Rural Fire Service has issued the maximum level of warning for the city since the introduction of the ''catastrophic'' alert in 2009 in the wake of the Victorian Black Saturday blazes."
     
  16. Gimped

    Gimped One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    It's just a "call to arms" for the bogan fire-lighters.
    We had a fire just down the road from us 2 days ago which started next to the "housing estates".
     
  17. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't know whether or not the forecast justifies the catastrophic level, but if it does then it is certainly worth broadcasting that and trying to get people to be aware and ready. Black saturday and a few preceeding days here were like nothing we had seen before. Going outside was like standing next to a furnace. A fire that started near beechworth travelled 50km in a few hours to burn properties not far from here.

    If that's what's coming then it's hard to see how there could be too much publicity.
     
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  18. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I remember starting a thread about the fire threat to Victoria 5 days before Black Saturday. I suggested that people at least get their kids out of the bush for the Saturday. I can still remember the gist of some of the comments to that - "Why are you trying to panic people", "Why won't someone think of NSW", "You're a drama queen", "What do you expect if you live in the bush" etc. At least some of the inappropriate posts were deleted in the wake of the fires.

    That said, to us in Vic, in the middle of rain, snow and wintery cold, it sort of seems weird that there's fires up north.

    Anyway, best of luck to those who live up there. I'll be thinking of you, especially those who come to be in the path of a fire.
     
  19. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I remember that clearly

    I remember john brumby vic premier imploring people to get out. And the cfa. And again.

    And then 179 people died

    And i remember people saying why werent we told?
     
  20. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    "Nobody warned us" :headbang:
     
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  21. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Victorias green is 'spray on'. We wont be far away. Gippsland is super dry as is central vic and the nw. I dug a stumphole maybe 1m at tallarook the other day, first inch was damp as we had just had 20mm of rain, the rest was dry talc all the way down.
     
  22. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    We’ve been through the 1994 and 2013 fires and are grateful for the warnings.
    We’re not panicking but are well aware, from first hand experience of the huge potential consequences of a fire starting up here.
    The properties are insured and we’ll leave with the animals and important documents if need be.
     
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  23. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    was just going to post exactly the same as I was reading through this thread. My son is in the RFS and will be with his gf’s parents inland on the CC this week and that makes me real nervous
     
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  24. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    To those who live in areas that could be affected:
    • Don't rely on the internet. New fires can spread fast and may not be on the internet for some time after they've started, and you could be in the line of them. (That's what happened in Narby - we were hit about 20mins after it started).
    • Regularly patrol around your house, looking, smelling, listening.
    • Don't shut all the curtains because it's hot - you must be able to see outside.
    • Use today to mow and clean up any rubbish/leaf litter around the house. Eliminate combustible sources nearby.
    • Have your car packed and facing out of the driveway - you may not have time to turn it around. Know where you'll be going.
    • Keep small pets inside
     
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  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Every so often I do some gutter clean outs for a couple of properties that back onto the bush here in Wollongong.
    The amount of fuel in those gutters is incredible . Dry AF . Mounds of dry gum leaves.
    Usually the gutters are a bit boggy.
    Not this season. The leaves and gutters are dry.
    Its been 50 years since the last big fire down here . People are complacent.
     
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  26. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    and leave early. don't wait till the fire is close.
    the people who tell how they survived that way are the ones who didn't die in their cars
     
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  27. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    While important, I think gutters are over-exaggerated. Guttering and roofs are not combustible. A small fire in the guttering will probably not burn your house down. But a small fire in some leaf litter in your porch against a weatherboard wall will. A fire in a shrub growing against your house will. If the area under your house has leaf litter and embers can enter the sub floor space, your house can burn. Clean your gutters, but don't for a moment think that's all you have to do.

    If you have a coir doormat, put it inside. That too, will burn easily.
     
  28. Stillcold

    Stillcold One of Us

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    I think this mostly depends on the age of the dwelling/type of sarking used (moisture protection layer under the tiles and should extend into the gutter), in the last 25 years most houses sarking will have a flame index, but before that the sarking would burn.
     
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  29. Stillcold

    Stillcold One of Us

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    But in regard to tomorrow, most of the bushland is on the southern side of the suburbs, with the north/north west wind there is only a handfull of areas that could come under risk.

    If I lived on the north side of Medowie I would be very worried if Wallaroo/Ferodale area got ignited.
     
  30. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    dont forget the canberra-fires lesson, suburbs can burn too

    if black saturday had got into eltham, lower templestowe before the wind change, there would have been carnage
     
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  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    and 1994.
    Jannali, Como etc
     
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  32. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Taipan area might cause some grief this week
     
  33. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anyone along the coast south of Forster with asthma should get their meds ready again, winds will push the smoke south over coast areas in the next 24hrs.

    Indeed you can already see the brown smudge to the north.
     
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  34. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes I remember that. People were saying the fire came up the valley at 60km/h.
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The residents were amazed you'd get a fire there.......
     
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  36. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    black saturday fires got to within 2 km of the centre of the bendigo, and someone died because he was disabled and could not be evacuated quickly enough
    3 people died in 1997 about 4km from where i lived near the dandenongs
     
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  37. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah well the dandenongs are gunna go one day, and alot of people will die on the choked roads getting out
     
  38. GS

    GS Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    absolutely
     
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  39. AlanD

    AlanD Part of the Furniture

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    I'm just taking a quick break from clearing the shed gutters. Our plan is basically to get the horses and other animals off the property as soon as there is a credible threat i.e. a fire in our region even if it's 30-40km away but running in our direction. I will stay behind until I think I need to go as well, but on the early side, just so that other jobs can be completed. Absolutely no interest in staying behind an fighting it or leaving it to the last minute. I'll do the jobs my partner thinks are unnecessary. We are already got some bags packed but not in the car, ditto stuff for the animals.
    This is our first significant event since moving up here, we are not panicking but we aren't being complacent for this one. We're just prepping and getting organized.
     
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  40. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep one tree down on the one road and its all over
     
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  41. JA2340

    JA2340 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    And, given the dry, some wind and a bit of fire, the chances of more than one tree being downed is fairly high.
     
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  42. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Mate, good luck with the horses, if it comes to it. I've been involved in a fairly major horse evac (12 horses off a property, including a very expensive dressage horse) during a severe flood, absolute mission with spooked animals. I assume you've got a destination for them sorted already?
     
  43. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Engadine got a new railway station from the 67/68 fires.......
     
  44. AlanD

    AlanD Part of the Furniture

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    Horses have experienced burn off before, but will be moved very early. We have a couple of destinations sorted depending on road closures. Our main issue is they haven't been loaded for 12 months, but they have always surprised us on being easy. They will be up near the shed tomorrow in their starvation paddocks so will be keen to enter the float if we show them a bucket of feed. Horse float will be hooked up to the car tonight.
     
  45. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    At least you've got a bit of warning, we didn't, there were a couple of swims to the truck!
     
  46. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Won’t somebody think of blame the cyclists!
     
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  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Illawarra and Shoalhaven now included among the areas forecast for catastrophic fire danger for Tuesday, which includes Greater Sydney and Greater Hunter areas.... winds look like 80-100kmph and temps around 38-40 ... So hectic
     
  48. JA2340

    JA2340 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Arhhhh ... get onya bike! ;)
     
  49. AlanD

    AlanD Part of the Furniture

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    No just the greenies controlling council that won't permit reasonable fire protection zones.