Bushfire Australian Widespread Bushfire Risk on Tuesday 12th November - and beyond

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Telezacski

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Good luck this evening. Nervous friends in tharwa.

we are tucked safely in town, but not looking good for friends out of town, heading straight at them albeit they are tucked behind the containment lines.

interesting how the “look at me” social media crowd who were so prevalent last Friday are now quiet, yet now is the genuine threat to Canberra! This is what I feared.
 

Telezacski

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D-eye

Photographer and skier
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The Beard Fire just popped back up on the ACT ESA website but it isn’t showing on the RFS fires near me website - does anyone know anything more about it?

It's popped in an out a few times, possibly a tree or something comes alight and it put out (speculation) they don't change it's status level.
 

Lady Penelope

One of some lot ...
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Sep 7, 2014
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I don’t know if it’s just a change in wind direction, but the fire south of Canberra (27km away from me, according to the FIres Near Me app) seems more menacing.

This morning ...

EF81CF15-9625-46D2-95E7-1FEF8C8ECC07.jpeg


And from a different vantage point later this afternoon ....

55359BB2-5BFD-4759-9E27-54418B805BE9.jpeg
 
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Telezacski

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Whoever the liberal member on q&a tonight is, they can just $&@? Off (Jim Molan)! Isn’t it the governments role to seek expert advice, not the experts to call up the government and say, hey just so you know...


Not Andrew Constance I am actually impressed by him.
 

D-eye

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I don’t know if it’s just a change in wind direction, but the fire south of Canberra (27km away from me, according to the FIres Near Me app) seems more menacing.

This morning ...

EF81CF15-9625-46D2-95E7-1FEF8C8ECC07.jpeg


And from a different vantage point later this afternoon ....

55359BB2-5BFD-4759-9E27-54418B805BE9.jpeg

The wind direction makes a difference, even with the warnings all seeming lower.
Then you have this from Saturday night.
 

Marquise de Kappy

One of Us
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Aug 24, 2010
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Whoever the liberal member on q&a tonight is, they can just $&@? Off (Jim Molan)! Isn’t it the governments role to seek expert advice, not the experts to call up the government and say, hey just so you know...


Not Andrew Constance I am actually impressed by him.
Yeah Jim Molan may as well throw himself under a bus! So out of touch with the mood & tone of most Australians.
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
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Oct 26, 2002
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For all of you down south, how bad exactly is the current fire situation? With a lot of the rain and the decreasing media coverage the fire crisis seemed to be over. To what extent is it still ongoing?

Fires continue to burn fiercely, spread through the bush and farmland and destroy homes and infrastructure.

There are multiple ongoing road closures.

In another month there will be very little left unburnt from Nowra to Cape Paterson.

What rain ?
 

Telezacski

A Local
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For all of you down south, how bad exactly is the current fire situation? With a lot of the rain and the decreasing media coverage the fire crisis seemed to be over. To what extent is it still ongoing?

Really depends on the town! For Canberra we have a fire burning to the South West which with the wrong wind could run, and run fast as the land is very dry. The concern at present is that the fire is creeping in a manner that more common prevailing winds could fan it to Canberra (again it would move quickly). The same fire (Orroral) has started two spot fires that are effecting Bredbo and Michelago, these could easily run in the wrong conditions and unfortunately the spot fires have created a situation where towns like Michelago could be effected by any of three fires depending on the wind.
 

Interruptedbyfireworks

One of Us
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Jun 1, 2018
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It's popped in an out a few times, possibly a tree or something comes alight and it put out (speculation) they don't change it's status level.
Yeah it stressed me out for a bit today but was gone after an hour. No smoke when I rode home so clearly ok.


I don’t know if it’s just a change in wind direction, but the fire south of Canberra (27km away from me, according to the FIres Near Me app) seems more menacing.

This morning ...

EF81CF15-9625-46D2-95E7-1FEF8C8ECC07.jpeg


And from a different vantage point later this afternoon ....

55359BB2-5BFD-4759-9E27-54418B805BE9.jpeg
The wind makes a huge difference doesn’t it! Looked decidedly apocalyptic as it was coming over this arve
7ED3106C-998B-46BE-9D33-7FFE9EAA2DED.jpeg
D7E61A82-8810-4DCF-BFF5-B1E3CC449FC0.jpeg
 

vibe++

One of Us
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May 21, 2015
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For all of you down south, how bad exactly is the current fire situation? With a lot of the rain and the decreasing media coverage the fire crisis seemed to be over. To what extent is it still ongoing?
We still have fires to the south of us keeping us on edge. We have packed to evacuate 3 times in the last 3 weeks(Bega valley)
 

Seafm

Too far from the snow
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Jun 5, 2014
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Whoever the liberal member on q&a tonight is, they can just $&@? Off (Jim Molan)! Isn’t it the governments role to seek expert advice, not the experts to call up the government and say, hey just so you know...


Not Andrew Constance I am actually impressed by him.
Watching it now on Qld time. And yes I think Jim Nolan is complete ****wit too. The climate scientist and the aboriginal elder have both hit the nail on the head.
 
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Belly

A Local
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Oct 22, 2003
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For all of you down south, how bad exactly is the current fire situation? With a lot of the rain and the decreasing media coverage the fire crisis seemed to be over. To what extent is it still ongoing?
There is an article on swellnet, a shaper lost his family home a few days ago inland from Pambula (haven't read the article closely yesterday).
And I know there's still fire activity in the Bodalla area.
 

sbm_

One of Us
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Dec 10, 2017
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I'm starting to lose track, but I think it's the 85th day of this thread.
 

KylePee

Cage rattler
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Feb 10, 2012
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We’ve almost become numb to fires. What a dark summer.
This is not a new phenomenon. We tend to get huge coverage on early season fires, fires close to big population centres, and fires with big impacts. Often only for a couple of the worst days and then it goes away, while the work continues.
Corona has taken over as the latest ratings emergency and fires have moved to 'the recovery story'.

I'm starting to lose track, but I think it's the 85th day of this thread.
And interestingly, this thread was started about fires from mid-November. NSW fires kicked off in a bad way even earlier, in August
 

telecrag

Old n' Crusty
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Oct 12, 2007
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Fingers crossed the progged weather starting Sunday or so actually happens, IMO good chance it will end the current fires.

I have been talking with a few people from effected areas, and the trauma is palpable. And its ongoing. Survivor guilt (my house is still there), the constant burntness. one of my client from Batlow just visited, and he is coming to Canberra every week or so, as relief.
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
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Oct 26, 2002
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Fingers crossed the progged weather starting Sunday or so actually happens, IMO good chance it will end the current fires.

I have been talking with a few people from effected areas, and the trauma is palpable. And its ongoing. Survivor guilt (my house is still there), the constant burntness. one of my client from Batlow just visited, and he is coming to Canberra every week or so, as relief.

A minor affect ..... everything in at the ponderosa smells of smoke.
 

currawong

Old but not so Crusty
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Sep 17, 2003
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Fingers crossed the progged weather starting Sunday or so actually happens, IMO good chance it will end the current fires.

I have been talking with a few people from effected areas, and the trauma is palpable. And its ongoing. Survivor guilt (my house is still there), the constant burntness. one of my client from Batlow just visited, and he is coming to Canberra every week or so, as relief.
one of the reasons we left home for 10 days at the start of Jan. Didn't expect our place to really be in danger. We remember from other campaign fires how the smoke and the constant tension of having to know what's likely to happen gets to you.
 

telecrag

Old n' Crusty
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There are people who have been living with the stress for so long now. Id imagine that @Untele-whippet is not yet clear of that feeling. A friend of mine has been on and off, evacuated at times, and the fire is still threatening the property, over a month after the first approach. In the Blueys it is months and months of it.

4 Corners was pretty good I thought last night. Not sure the channel 7 attempt tonight will be so thoughtful.
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
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Oct 26, 2002
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There are people who have been living with the stress for so long now. Id imagine that @Untele-whippet is not yet clear of that feeling. A friend of mine has been on and off, evacuated at times, and the fire is still threatening the property, over a month after the first approach. In the Blueys it is months and months of it.

4 Corners was pretty good I thought last night. Not sure the channel 7 attempt tonight will be so thoughtful.

TBC was just saying "the fires are stressing me out" and yet we are very much on the fringe. We will be driving through the Bredbo area tomorrow which is not going to help. (I was on my own last trip)
 

Untele-whippet

beard stroker
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Jul 13, 2006
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There are people who have been living with the stress for so long now. Id imagine that @Untele-whippet is not yet clear of that feeling. A friend of mine has been on and off, evacuated at times, and the fire is still threatening the property, over a month after the first approach. In the Blueys it is months and months of it.

4 Corners was pretty good I thought last night. Not sure the channel 7 attempt tonight will be so thoughtful.
We first saw a plume from Gospers Mtn Fire on Sunday 27th October out in the Wollemi and watched it get closer for 2 months knowing it would definitely impact us somehow for weeks before 21st December when it hit.
The waiting was draining.
Wifey told me to go MTB at Thredbo with @telecrag the weekend before because there was no point watching and twiddling our thumbs at home as we were as prepared as best we could.
The adrenaline arced up again last Monday driving on the Monaro past Tharwa then during this week when Erskine Creek went pyrocumulus.
No smoke is great but every time we head out of Mt Vic down the Darling Causeway it’s like a depressing black scorched earth melancholy envelopes us.
Almost no evidence of regrowth.
The process of having the house ruins assessed and now removed hasn’t helped with any positivity either as has the fact a lot of the outdoor NP playgrounds we recreate in here are closed because of severe fire damage.
Hopefully now with good rain and building plans moving along the mood will lighten.
Most other previous fires have been here in a day then gone in another few days.
Unprecedented this time.
Am planning some winter adventures looking forward :)
 

Rabid K9

A Local
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Jul 15, 2008
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That damage to the 'natural sanctuaries' I find hard in fire aftermath.

You want to escape & enjoy the environment, but everything is stark & raw particularly with spring / early summer fires, where the long expanse of summer keeps many systems in a torpor before proper regeneration begins.

Had to leave for a while after the last big fires in my area (2011). Ironically went to south coast NSW & Kosciusko.
 

Rabid K9

A Local
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Jul 15, 2008
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There are people who have been living with the stress for so long now. Id imagine that @Untele-whippet is not yet clear of that feeling. A friend of mine has been on and off, evacuated at times, and the fire is still threatening the property, over a month after the first approach. In the Blueys it is months and months of it.

4 Corners was pretty good I thought last night. Not sure the channel 7 attempt tonight will be so thoughtful.

I thought it also thoughtful, being largely first hand accounts. That poor fella from Cobargo who lost his father & brother....

I also craved more information, more breakdown of conditions & fire behaviour, burn patterns & learnings, but this was't the time with events still unfolding.
 

KylePee

Cage rattler
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Feb 10, 2012
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Jumped the wall to Mexico
I thought it also thoughtful, being largely first hand accounts. That poor fella from Cobargo who lost his father & brother....

I also craved more information, more breakdown of conditions & fire behaviour, burn patterns & learnings, but this was't the time with events still unfolding.
Was quite balanced, first hand accounts and a bit of a preparation message but more left for people to digest and take their own message away rather than clearly having an angle as some stories have.

I think leaving all of that other detail is what made it what it was.
 

D-eye

Photographer and skier
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Just going off the fires near me app it’s not looking good for Corin :cry:
0E42AE40-0581-472E-861C-C7602F99A843.png
The hot spot overlay on bushfire.io earlier today looked worse for them. Luckily I've been busy all day and haven't really had a chance to look at info or think about fires for most of the day - except for going out in the smoke.

This is the current overlay, not sure how long ago the hot spots were scanned.
upload_2020-2-4_20-20-50.png
 

telecrag

Old n' Crusty
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Oct 12, 2007
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$&@! The fire creep is bad, not sure how Corin is but +1 just told me they have turned on the sprinklers at Pryor hut.

So many memories in that hut, so many nights I can’t remember due to red wine as well!

Me too, and one really bad one, where I got hit with a bug at 2am, in the snow, OMG.
 
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Telezacski

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Oh and not sure if already posted but there is another fire across the border from the ACT kind of behind Bimberi
 
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